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Yes spotted that after you mentioned it - so if 1.8bn is the balance was considering what the rest of the split was

Canada is 10% of domestic box office so plus some could be ? $300m?
Cinemark? They did $500m in Q2 2019 so $350-$400assume they did around the same % as AMC
Others? Using the statista figures they equate to 35% of AMC screens in US so equivalent box office would max $200m?

That’s $900m in total leaves $900m unallocated

I’m not saying it’s all Regals but even if you swipe another $300m off that figure you are at $600m for Regal which is better then AMC

As a proportion of total revenue with all other bits added puts Cine in or around $1bn for Q2 on my rough calcs with a pretty big margin for error

@Hexam that’s correct I was wrongly using their total US revenue of $907m thats provided in their earnings release on page 8 whereas the admissions (total worldwide) is provided at 651m on page 6

I was trying to backsolve Cine’s share of the $2.3bn domestic box office as quoted on box office mojo by using AMC revenues as one big piece of the jigsaw

I saw a statistic that 10-11% of North American box office is Canadian so removed that

I will probably have another go and a more sensible hour tomorrow!

Haha Lth thanks for spotting that clearly doing analysis like this isn’t a post midnight job!

As you say it makes it even better for Cine - if AMC only did $651m in worldwide revenues for admission how has the balance of $2.3bn box office split unless it’s calculated as box office revenue after paying the studio’s share perhaps?

I re looked at Cinemark and it could be based on previous Q2 that they did something closer to $400m but even boosting that still make Cine look like they had a great quarter and have managed to take a large market share from competitors - perhaps investing in all those new and refurbished cinemas are finally paying off

Health warning on my last post! Not sure why my numbers aren’t adding up the Cineworld US figures are for H1 eg Q1 &Q2 combined - obviously would love if our revenues were that good but something isn’t adding up here - answers on a postcard please - I can’t find the error as there really aren’t that many other big cinema chains to take the balance of the revenue share!

Some personal analysis I am sharing taking account the news from AMC today which may spell good results for Cine

AMC box office was $1,17bn -$908m was US revenue

that leaves 1.4bn spare based on the 2.32bn Q2 domestic box office. 10% is Canada so removing that leaves $1.2bn

There are very few large domestic competitors outside of Canada other then Cinemark which based on previous quarters could post box office revenues of around $200. In addition so taking some smaller players into account could see a balance of about $900m domestic for Cine

According to previous splits

59% of Cine revenue is Box office $900
29% Retail -442m
12% Advertising and other - 183m

Total domestic revenue is $1.5bn vs $1.61bn for 2019

I think this quite a realistic estimate and even adjusting further slightly if true it means that US Q2 for Cine has been somewhere in the region of 90%-95% of 2019 earning domestic i.e well above base case.

To give a data driven example the box office pro website links that are often posted here gave a predicted domestic forecast range last year of $45m-75m$ for Free Guy and it ended up doing $121m domestic

If that was applied to Bullet Trains forecast of $85-$120$ by the same website that could net in the region of $230m - not saying it will happen but shows forecasts can and are often quite wrong so still reason to be hopeful for a relatively strong August

The August 2021 slate wasn’t particularly impressive and even with the “slow return to cinema” still managed to chalk a respectable $400+ million with Free Guy being a sleeper hit

I will stick my neck out and say could be looking at $600m+ based on the releases doing better then expected due to less choice as well as spillover from titles released in July having “legs”

To quote Sydney Youngblood “all we can do, is sit and wait”

Happy to be corrected on this but doesn’t the author also make a false relation ship between the earnings figures given of £226m and £190m in previous years and the (incorrect) debt figure .

My understanding is that a significant proportion of income in those years was paid in dividends. So if they are suspending the dividend payments that’s significantly more then the figures quoted that will go towards deleveraging the business and bring the debt back into an acceptable ratio.

Hope everyone realises Seeking Alpha articles can be submitted by any regular Joe and published - in this example it was written by someone who calls themselves “retirement pot” and is self described as

I am a private investor based in the United Kingdom and most interested in equities in the U.K., U.S., Canada and Norway.

In other words he/she has no special knowledge or insight over and above anyone else and is an opinion formed by some ropey figures like the 8.9bn debt calculation for a start

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@mountainous - could be photo just seems a bit “overblown” a bit like the content of the article :)

There is something not quite right about that article - for starters I think they have photoshopped mookys body to make his stomach look huge - I saw him in person at the AGM and no way was he that fat

General malaise and apathy has clearly set in -personally I have stopped checking in here as regularly or the share price - I only check box office to track results - it’s obvious this will refuse to move until the inevitable court case outcome which feels a long long way off

Thankfully no - its dated 17th June - the previous documents I posted on here from May pretty much said the same thing but in a long winded way - this puts a definite seal on things as there were a few holding out hope that it had been kicked into 2023 due to the complexity of the case

Gives me no pleasure to post but a couple of weeks back some were querying then status of the regal court case - well I bothered checking the court documents and the latest published item is pretty definitive - all the text below is from the summary judgement

For the reasons set forth in the separate order granting Defendants’ motion for judgment on the pleadings entered this day, it is
ORDERED AND ADJUDGED that Plaintiff Crown Intermediate Holdco Inc. d/b/a Regal Cinemas claims shall TAKE NOTHING on its claims against Defendants Allianz Global Risks US Insurance Company, Liberty Mutual Fire Insurance Company, and Zurich American Insurance Company, and Plaintiff’s claims are DISMISSED on the merits with prejudice.

This is a Final Judgment.

Not that it has any significance but the registered address for the company is Mcarthy Tetrault offices - Cineworld Lawyers - I can’t imagine they would leave this open for fun - what the reason is who knows

@mountainous I would love to know the answer to this question also. The renewal is an active process so why bother renewing it ? I expect there are no other cinema chains Cineworld have in their sights , they have no operations in Canada so it is curious if nothing else as to why they have made a decision to keep this entity in place

That’s a good reminder of the background on that aspect mountainous.

And of course for some reason if you do a search you find the company registered in Vancouver- British Columbia was renewed in February 2022 - does beg the question why they have bothered to keep this company alive if it was solely for the now defunct transaction