Member Info for HighYield

DPLSOLO, I did not understand why only Management would benefit from the sale, but I am not up to date with situation in SCIR. Please explain.

First I must state that I am a shareholder in WEN. I notice the disapproval of the proposed sale of the Ruvuma asset, and I do understand the dissapointment as many of you have lost of money by investing in this company. My question is, what do you think will happen if the deal gets voted down? In order not to loose the part of the license, SCIR would have to come up with about 3 musd in a relatively short period to cover their share of costs for the 3D seismic. Thereafter another 3-3.5 musd for the drilling of the CH1 well. The company will need to raise that money by a well discounted capital raise. Or have any of you some other thoughts how this will play out? I have read some of the postings here, and the name Gneiss has been menthioned. In what way is that related to SCIR?

cperkin, sorry I have not been fully updated on what has been written here or on the AEX board. When I saw today's headline that WEN acquired SCIRs part of the Ruvuma project, my first reaction was "ohh noo" . But after reading the whole PR and looking at the presentation, I am now more positive. The main part of the price (16 musd), is dependent on a successful project, that reduces the risk significantly.

Thanks Haggis. Well, the two companies presenting different numbers of the potential size of the resources. I think that reflects the different mentality of the two companies and their shareholders. Going forward, I guess we will be having discussions like which company should you be invested in right now. Then AEX bulls can argue that their 25% share of the project contains 8tcf of gas, while the 25% share that WEN holds only have 2 tcf. Looking forward to the debate.

As a long time shareholder in WEN, I appreciate the headline "Welcome to Ruvuma WEN". Now we are on the same boat, and actually i am quite happy with that. The main part of the price for the 25% share is paid upon success of the project, which reduces the risk for the investment. Let us all hope for success of this project. I found WEN's presentation quite interesting.
https://wp-wentworth-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/06/Proposed-Ruvuma-Acquisition-Presentation.pdf

From the presentation, I notice that TPDC has the right to step in as a an owner of up to 25% of the project (page 12).

We are not used to positive share price reaction on news. Could it be "AEX dissidents" that now have found WEN?

On the SCIR board today, I found one "dissident". Welcome CP we are now on the same boat.
"C'est la vie Dan, shame shareholders here don't get to see any of the Ruvuma upside from here on in, happy with my AEX and WEN holding for Ruvuma asset upside at least.

GLA"

The Company forecasts average gross conventional natural gas sales, which will be classified as Additional Gas, as defined in the PSA (as defined herein) of 70-76 MMcfd during 2022 representing a 10 MMcfd, or approximately 16%, increase to the prior forecasts of 60-66 MMcfd. The increased gas demand forecast is primarily driven by encouraging discussions with the Ministry of Energy (“MoE”), TPDC and TANESCO to increase gas supply to new power generation facilities expected to be commissioned in 2022.

The Company forecasts average gross conventional natural gas sales, which will be classified as Additional Gas, as defined in the PSA (as defined herein) of 70-76 MMcfd during 2022 representing a 10 MMcfd, or approximately 16%, increase to the prior forecasts of 60-66 MMcfd. The increased gas demand forecast is primarily driven by encouraging discussions with the Ministry of Energy (“MoE”), TPDC and TANESCO to increase gas supply to new power generation facilities expected to be commissioned in 2022.

Hope all is well with you.

Apologies for the delay in responding to you; I have been travelling this week.

In relation to you questions below:

1. The gas price indexation is calculated based on the formula within the GSA and the CPI Index workings are taken from the average monthly CPI data for the US over 12 months as per the below:

Index for CPI 1.04698
Gas Price 2021 ($/mmBTU) 3.2825
Gas Price 2022 ($/mmBTU 3.4367

In summary, this indexation is not the same as current inflation.

2. Opex. The reason for the increase is that we typically see operations costs back-loaded and coming through towards the end of the year. There are no fundamental changes impacting opex/Mscf.

3. 2022 Capex guidance. Field operating costs are typical on-going costs as usual. Field development costs include the FEED / compression budget.

Hope that helps.

All the best

Katherine

Now I understand, why you would like WEN to overpay for SCIR assets.

"grsshaw

Posted in: SCIR

Posts: 429

Price: 0.75

No Opinion

RE: At the risk of repeating myself31 Jan 2022 10:27
Only have a few shares in SCIR (under water) so I too have jumped in with 500k purchase!

Invested profit from another transaction, so thought I would try my luck here - finger crossed!"

You guessed correctly. No reply yet. I sent her a remained of my email on Monday as well.

I sent a mail, and hope for a reply. On and off , I get a reply to my questions, but far from always.
"Dear Katherine,

I have some questions following the operational update and 2022 outlook, released this morning.

I am very pleased with the operational update, especially the high production during the fourth quarter. However, I have some questions regarding the 2022 outlook.

First, regarding the gas price for 2022. The update says “The contracted price for gas produced at Mnazi Bay production has increased from $3.35/MMbtu to $3.44/MMbtu in line with growth in the United States Consumer Prices Index ("CPI"); effective from 1 January 2022”

The increase in the gas price is about 2.7%, far from the growth in US CPI of about 7%. Please explain.

Regarding the guidance for opex, “Operational costs of production remain low at $0.54/Mscf”

This is a 12.5% increase in operational costs from 1H 2021 (0.48/Mscf), when production is expected to remain at the same level. What is the reason behind this dramatic cost increase?

Regarding the Capex guidance, “2022 proposed Mnazi Bay work programme and budget totalling $20.1 million (gross joint venture), comprising $12.8 million field operating costs ($4.3 million net to Wentworth) and $7.3 million field development costs ($2.3 million net to Wentworth)”

Could you give some comments what’s behind the wording “field operating costs” (compression?) and “field development costs” (seismic, or new wells?)

Best Regards"

Stonefold, thank you for interesting links. In the short-term it looks as though TPDC is looking to increase gas production. This is from Wentworth's operational update from yesterday.
" TANESCO announced in November that natural gas will be used to address a 345MW shortage gap of power to the National Grid to compensate for the lack of capacity from its hydro-electric power stations due to low water levels in the dams and rivers of the catchment areas

· As part of the plan, TANESCO intends to increase production by fast-tracking maintenance of its natural gas-plants at Ubungo and expediting the completion of the Kinyerezi I Extension Generation Facility"

From Wentworth's operational update, " The Company intends to explore and evaluate growth opportunities both within the Mnazi Bay licence and the greater geographical region to support increasing in-country demand for natural gas"

When calculation the shareprice performance of Orca, one should include the 25% buyback of the outstanding shares at 6.50 CAD.
What I fins mostinteresting is that Orca is investing 50 musd in 2022, When the license expires in 2026. Maybee they have some signal that the license will be extended. Positive for WEN as well.

Another trade
21-Apr-21 15:54:19 23.50 6,573,496 Unknown* 23.00 24.00 2m

It's probably the Chairman, Bob McBean that has announced that he will leave at the AGM. (he is the likely seller)

21-Apr-21 15:36:37 23.50 3,000,000 Unknown* 23.00 24.00 705.00k

Depends on Price.

Timing of new wells will depend on growth in gas demand. It is in the interest for all of us, that demand for gas picks up. So, hopefully we will see new wells before 2024. I would not set my hope too high for WEN as a partner. But ther could be others, https://www.africaoilcorp.com/site/assets/files/1542/2020-10-29-cp-aoi.pdf