Member Info for highland

I'll take that ;-)

Based on?

7.45 paid....new 52 week high

Almost at the 52 week high of 7.40p

Tim did day in his interview the deal would not be this week, he never said it would not be this month.......deal could drop anytime.

Tim and Seb do sound incredibly excited and pleased with themselves.....game on (hopefully), lets see what the remainder of the year brings...

I think that was even better than the Proactive interview....a must listen

Well done Mark....hats off.

Been a bit lax this week....too much time over at IMM.

This is the one we need next

Building the Tiny Team

capMedia's "tiny team" build-out will continue in the near term with up to four senior hires designed to multiply growth:

· Growth Hacker / Social Media Lead - driving viral adoption, community growth, and brand reach.

New hire

Hi Markeurasia,

Can i ask what your confidence is based on please?

Fair enough....but no need for the insults.

Fair enough...I'm nuts then.....will cease to post on here and just observe....not here to be ridiculed by the likes of you.

"Wisdom has been chasing you, but you sir have always been faster."......could apply to a few of the ne'er do wells on this board sometimes

Comedy gold......10p...that is comedy gold.

Nolupus....with all outstanding warrants added....still looks not too shabby....

if you were a broker looking at Immupharma at this current time, what kind of forward looking valuation would you put on it as regards share price based on the current 608 million shares in issue

ChatGPT said:

Alright — let’s do a forward-looking valuation for ImmuPharma using the updated 608 million shares in issue. I’ll approach this like a broker would, factoring in clinical risk, market potential, and Phase 3 probability.

Step 1: Key Inputs

Shares in issue: 608 million

Drug: P140 (Lupuzor™), first-in-class for autoimmune diseases (SLE)

Patent: 20-year exclusivity

Global SLE market: ~$10B/year

Expected peak market share: 30–50%

Profit margin assumption: ~50% for biologics

Probability of Phase 3 success: ~50% (risk-adjusted)

Step 2: Estimate Peak Annual Revenue

Market Share Annual Revenue ($B)

30% 3

40% 4

50% 5

Step 3: Enterprise Value (EV) Estimation

Pre-Phase 3 biotech often valued at 3–5× peak revenue before risk adjustment.

Apply 50% risk adjustment for Phase 3 and approval uncertainty.

Peak Revenue ($B) EV Post-Risk Adjustment ($B)

3 4.5

4 6

5 7.5

(EV = Peak revenue × 3–5 × 0.5)

Step 4: Translate to Share Price

Share Price

=

EV

Shares in Issue

Share Price=

Shares in Issue

EV

​

Shares in issue = 608 million

EV ($B) Share Price ($/share)

4.5 7.40

6 9.87

7.5 12.34

Step 5: Notes & Sensitivity

Optimistic scenario: If P140 expands to other autoimmune indications, EV could rise 2–3× → share price could exceed $20–25/share.

Downside scenario: If Phase 3 fails or efficacy is marginal, value could drop below $3–4/share.

Biomarker selection increases likelihood of success slightly, which could tilt the “base case” higher (~$10/share).

Forward-Looking Valuation Summary (608M shares)

Scenario EV ($B) Price/Share ($)

Conservative 4.5 7.4

Base Case 6 9.87

Optimistic 7.5 12.34

If you were a broker looking at Immupharma at this current time, what kind of forward lookinng valuation would you put on it as regards share price based on the current 500 million shares in issue

ChatGPT said:

Alright — let’s do a forward-looking valuation exercise for ImmuPharma, using your data and realistic assumptions. I’ll break it down step by step.

Step 1: Key Inputs

Shares in issue: 500 million

Stage: P140 passed Phase 2b, pre-Phase 3

Indication: SLE (lupus), potential for expansion to other autoimmune diseases

Patent: First-in-class, 20-year exclusivity

Market potential: Global SLE market ~$10B/year

Expected peak market share: 30–50% (first-in-class therapy)

Profit margin assumption: ~50% (typical for biologics)

Step 2: Estimate Annual Revenue Potential

Market share Annual revenue ($B)

30% 3

40% 4

50% 5

Step 3: Convert Revenue to Enterprise Value (EV)

Biotech companies pre-Phase 3 are often valued at 3–5× projected peak sales, discounted for clinical and regulatory risk (~50–60%).

Let’s assume EV = Peak sales × 4 × 0.5 risk adjustment

Peak Revenue ($B) EV Post-Risk Adjustment ($B)

3 6

4 8

5 10

Step 4: Translate to Share Price

Forward Share Price

=

EV

Shares in Issue

Forward Share Price=

Shares in Issue

EV

​

Shares in issue = 500 million

EV ($B) Share Price ($/share)

6 12

8 16

10 20

Step 5: Sensitivity & Risk Notes

These values are forward-looking and assume successful Phase 3 and eventual approval.

If Phase 3 fails or shows weak efficacy, share price could drop significantly.

Upside exists if P140 is expanded into other autoimmune indications, or if a licensing/deal with Big Pharma occurs, potentially increasing EV 2–3×.

✅ Forward-Looking Valuation Summary

Conservative case: $12/share

Base case: $16/share

Optimistic case: $20/share

Current market cap (for reference) is far below this, reflecting pre-Phase 3 risk.

How has immupharma submitted a patent for a P140 therapy without any P3 trials

ChatGPT said:

You're absolutely right to wonder—it's perfectly normal in pharmaceutical development to file patent applications before completing Phase III clinical trials. Let me break down exactly how ImmuPharma has been able to secure intellectual property rights for its P140 therapy ahead of its pivotal trials:

What’s Patentable Without Phase III Data?

Patent law allows protection for inventions that are novel, non-obvious, and useful, regardless of how far they've progressed in clinical trials. In a biotech context this can cover:

Mechanism of action discoveries

Biomarker or diagnostic tests targeting specific patient subgroups

Methodologies for patient stratification or dosing

Expanded indications across disease categories

These novel innovations can be protected before full clinical validation, as long as there's solid scientific foundation and support.

What ImmuPharma Has Patented (Pre-Phase III)

ImmuPharma has indeed filed significant patent applications for P140 even before Phase III. Here's what those patents cover:

Mechanism of Action & Patient Stratification

They have identified and validated P140’s unique “immuno-normalizer” action which restores immune balance rather than suppressing it.

Discovered a novel Type M immune disorder—a subgroup of autoimmune patients who are "super-responders" to P140.

Developed a diagnostic test to identify these Type M responders.

Research Tree

MedPath

Expanded Therapeutic Application

Their patent initiative proposes extending the P140 platform beyond SLE to include up to 50 different autoimmune diseases.

MedPath

ImmuPharma PLC

Commercial Exclusivity Incentive

The patent application supports potential 20 years of exclusivity for both the therapeutic P140 and its diagnostic companion.

Investing.com

MedPath

Collectively, these innovations go well beyond standard therapy—they reflect a precision medicine approach that adds strategic value, even before final efficacy data from Phase III.

Why Filing Early Makes Strategic Sense

Grace Period Advantage: In jurisdictions like the U.S., filing early preserves patent rights, giving ImmuPharma a 20-year clock running from filing—maximizing exclusivity.

Commercial Negotiation Leverage: Demonstrating IP covering both therapy and companion diagnostics strengthens licensing and partnership discussions.

Research Tree

Proactiveinvestors NA

De-Risking Strategy: Biotech patents aren't solely about winning clinical outcomes—they’re also about innovation in identification, targeting, and broader applicability.

Summary Table

Patent Focus Why It Matters (Pre-Phase III)

Mechanism of Action ("immuno-normalizer") Novel biology supports innovation, not dependent on Phase III data

Type M Diagnostic (patient stratification) Enables precision targeting—valuable independently of outcome

Broad indicat

Just grabbed myself another 10,000 shares at this low price....cheeky not to.

Bonzo,

Agreed......after years of failed investments, hopefully this is the one that I get right ;-)