Member Info for hey_arnold

"Unless more media scare mongering goes on over the weekend." Which inevitably will happen. The media are constantly just waiting to crank up the ante on the next confirmed case in the West. I'm still bearish.

Fund % short change Date changed
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, National Association 0.89% -0.10% 20 Feb 2020
Citadel Advisors LLC 0.95% 0.11% 26 Feb 2020
Key Group Holdings (Cayman), Ltd. 1.85% 0.44% 24 Feb 2020
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 1.28% 0.27% 26 Feb 2020
Pictet Asset Management Ltd 0.60% 0.0% 25 Feb 2020
Squarepoint Ops LLC 0.91% 0.07% 26 Feb 2020
Total 6.48%

FCF wont be £350m anymore. With oil prices in the toilet.

I think it all depends on how big a cut OPEC makes. I feel like this has further to go if Corona takes hold in North West Europe and United States. I think staying in cash is easiest.

OPEC will next week.

High debt and low oil prices are a bad combo.

I sold yesterday. Any oil stocks with high debt, I think are going to keep getting smashed until corona is brought back under control.

Not if they think it could go bust. Which is I guess what people are beginning to price in.

I completely disagree. If Corona hits the US this will **** the bed.

When do the hedges expire ?

Not a shorter. Lost money like everyone else on here. If you are going to take a pop at me, please dont post stupid comments up on here like you have Leon.

Its important to see what the shorters are doing and its irrelevant whether Tullow operates in the US....

Increased:

Fund % short change Date changed
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, National Association 0.89% -0.10% 20 Feb 2020
Citadel Advisors LLC 0.84% 0.13% 25 Feb 2020
Key Group Holdings (Cayman), Ltd. 1.85% 0.44% 24 Feb 2020
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 1.01% 0.03% 25 Feb 2020
Pictet Asset Management Ltd 0.60% 0.0% 25 Feb 2020
Squarepoint Ops LLC 0.84% -0.06% 25 Feb 2020
Total 6.03%

Bought this morning below 3000. Now just to sit and wait for corona to blow over.

The shorters smell blood. I was speaking to an oil trader from one of the big trading houses yesterday after work and he thinks the moment corona becomes a problem in the US, oil and equities are toast, even from these levels. Lets OPEC help us out....

From google:

In the oil and gas market, one of the factors that completely
throws off this assumption about P/E ratios is the variation
in capital expenditures. Industry capex tends to follow oil
prices—when prices are down, companies cut capex in
order to survive; when prices are up, many companies
look to spend more on capex to try and take advantage of
that fact. Since oil prices are so volatile, this makes capex
volatile, and makes the P/E ratio a bad metric for most oil
sector companies.
The appropriate metrics to use for valuing companies in the
oil and gas sector vary somewhat based on the predictability
of cashflows and the type of assets in the business. The
predictability of these cashflows varies based on what the
firms invest in. E&P companies tend to focus on exploration
and development, while midstream firms often spend their
capex on acquisitions of assets.

You dont look at TLW using PE.

Increased:

Fund % short change Date changed
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, National Association 0.89% -0.10% 20 Feb 2020
Citadel Advisors LLC 0.71% 0.09% 24 Feb 2020
Key Group Holdings (Cayman), Ltd. 1.85% 0.44% 24 Feb 2020
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 0.98% 0.11% 24 Feb 2020
Squarepoint Ops LLC 0.90% 0.03% 21 Feb 2020
Total 5.33%

Managed to get back in for the second attempt.

I am almost certain it is a shorter taking profit and reducing their position. I also think, someone is clearly happy to sell this back down as they dont think this corona virus thing is over and there is more to go.

Its short covering.