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Mac - the figure you're referring to is not the mining profit (that's at the bottom of the grid). The figure at the top is the 'gross profit' which is what they call the total profit from mining including the cost of the machines and the change in HODL value during the month. In September there was a big loss on the HODL of £4.13m which wiped out most of the mining profit (the reverse was true for July and August).

@28 - I don't think you can infer that they bought 0.5m USD of crypto. Every month the numbers mined do not reconcile with the numbers held - sometimes leading to a few more being held (than implied by the mining) and at other times a few less. It's simply because the price of BTC doesn't go up at the same rate as the price of other coins they hold so the equivalent number changes.

Written Warning? Why?

@Silkymoves - As Mary suggests, it is your call. Nobody should you be telling you to do one or the other (or anything in between). Despite some misconceptions there is no immediate difference in value whichever option you choose. It all depends on whether you want to invest more in TUI because you think it will do well (and have the funds) or are less confident in which case you may want to sell now or just sell the rights when you can (which will leave you with the same number of shares that you had before but each worth less as you pocketed the value of the rights).

@Nath89 - Similar thing applies. You could sell now and get around 2000x327p = c.£6.5k.

If you buy back when the share drops to 280p (based on current sp holding firm) you are not getting the shares at a discount or bargain price as you are not getting the rights attaching instead you are paying the ex-rights price. If you reinvest the £6.5k you will get more shares than you had before (c. 2,320) but only because they are each worth less. The only reason to do what you are suggesting is because you think the sentiment around TUI will be such that the sp will drop in the meantime and so the 280p becomes 270p or whatever and you are happy to then re-enter at this lower price. This is just normal trading though - the RI itself should make no difference.

Pretty sure it is by the close of business on Oct 7th. When the market opens on the 8th the sp will drop (to around 280p - based on the current sp) to reflect that any shares purchased will no longer have the rights attaching. Existing shareholders from that date will be able to exercise those rights or sell them - though exact timing of when you can do this - and for how long - will depend on your broker. Hopefully somebody can confirm or correct?

There are two ways that adding shares affect the sp:

1) Mathematical - i.e. if a discount is offered. This automatically means the price of the existing shares is reduced as the THEORETICAL new price should be the weighted average of the price of the old shares and the discounted new ones. That has happened in this case so is definitely part of the reason for the fall.

2) Sentiment. Dilution is often seen as bad, especially in the short term and there is little doubt that reaction to this one hasn't been entirely positive judging by the views expressed here and elsewhere. Dilution though simply means that profits are spread more thinly over an increased number of shares. For ARB though I hope and expect the IPO and any subsequent raises will fuel enough growth that the opposite happens i.e. that earnings per share increase much faster than they would have done otherwise.

So my view is that the IPO has done short term harm to the sp but will ultimately be beneficial to it.

Whether the IPO (and any future equity raises) are the best way to grow is much harder to say. Personally I hope they make at least some use of loans and BTC sales too but the most important thing is that they do grow one way or another. Not only do they need to grow but they need to do so faster than the competition otherwise mining numbers will fall and fall quickly.

But it hasn't been silent about the business and we will have an update tomorrow or Friday. Probably.

Sorry but 'defo' disagree. Don't see why having £/$ in any release makes any difference and the last RNS has far more impact on the future financials than one monthly update.

Besides if there is no news for several more weeks then this itself is likely to crash the sp as uncertainty hits a share much harder than most things.

Would agree that any 'quiet period' does not mean they can't issue the operational update so would expect this soon - though definitely not this afternoon.

One possible reason for the delay is that they are trying to pair it with other news (as they have often done this year) which isn't quite ready for release. This would make sense if such news is positive as this would help offset the mining numbers which will be well down on August due to the increased difficulty. Maybe as low as 160 if no new machines were up and running in September and it may be that it is (positive) news on these machines that they want to include.

This is just one possibility though and there are others - the simplest being that there is no set timetable for these and as the title of this thread says, last October's was on the 7th. So in short, no big deal.

That suggests only a 3% increase in production from new machines - I thought it increased by closer to 10% if the following is correct?

"Bitfarms has received and installed the first 540 miners of 2,200 Bitmain S19j Pro and 300 MicroBT M30S miners scheduled for delivery in September. The installation of these miners has increased Bitfarms’ operating hashrate to 1.53 EH/s as of September 29, 2021. Due to supply chain and shipping delays, the other 1,660 Bitmain S19j Pro miners originally scheduled for September delivery are en route and expected to be received in October. Once these miners are installed, Bitfarms’ operating hashrate is expected to be approximately 1.7 EH/s, about 20% higher than our most recently announced operating hashrate of 1.4 EH/s."

Alex - I think it's a tough call.

If Covid cases go up rapidly over the winter then I don't think this will necessarily lead to greater travel restrictions - it will depend more on the number of hospitalisations and deaths which thankfully at the moment the vaccines are doing a good job of protecting against. However, who knows how different countries (including the UK) will react, especially those with lower vaccination rates, or if new variants emerge, so it is really hard to predict how things will pan out over the short term. I tend towards the view that countries will 'live with it' as otherwise we'll probably just be repeating the same open/close cycle for many years to come and if that's the case then travels stocks won't be the place to be (other than for trading those cycles for as long as the companies can survive)!

So I believe travel stocks are likely to be on a surer road to recovery now and climb back more towards pre-pandemic levels - though with the odd bump along the way that shorter term traders can still take advantage of if timing well. And as you say, in the meantime there is takeover 'talk' to throw into the mix.

I wouldn't presume to advise you on what to do (even if it was legal) with so much uncertainty around and with a big risk of missing out versus a significant risk of losing out - but good luck with whatever you decide!

"Bitfarms are the first Sept numbers I’ve seen, they dropped down ~14%" - but as I understand it they installed some new machines last month? So unless ARB have done the same their drop is likely to be larger.

Again - this is not a de-ramp, just trying to prevent gnashing of teeth if ARB come up with a number of around 160 for September (the sort of number that it could well be if no new machines installed yet). Hopefully, they have started installing now though and we'll get a clear message of how the installation is progressing so that whatever the mining number that they do publish is, it can be put into the proper perspective.

Excellent post Blubay but I fear on your last comment that some people may be disappointed by the September performance figures. They are likely to be well down on August but this shouldn't be cause for concern about ARB as it will simply reflect the sharp increase in average difficulty seen last month.

Of course this could be partly, or even fully, offset if some of the Q4 machines were installed last month and any positive news on this will be a big plus. Otherwise better to manage expectations and hopefully over the next few days we won't see many 200+ predictions for coins mined as it simply can't be this high unless a significant number of new machines have already been installed.

@zydecoco - agree with your points except the last one. Why do you think mining efficiency has been improving? Comparing average difficulty each month and the numbers mined this indicates it has been dropping a few percent each month - which is not surprising perhaps as the machines age. This should reverse though with the new machines.

Mining margins have improved but this is more to do with reducing difficulty and/or increasing BTC seen over the last few months.

I know that but the final instalment is 12 months away - so plenty of time to generate revenue from elsewhere including in 2022 from the Texas space.

Unlikely to be enough to meet full costs but could make a reasonable dent.

"the money raised from the IPO was said to cover the Texas build, not the rigs, some here suggested they would be leased… This RNS confirms that not to be the case"

Actually the RNS states they will be paid in instalments - i.e. rather like a lease!

So with the initial deposit already paid the question is how will they fund these instalments? A very real possibility is that they can generate cash from hosting (and providing other services) to other miners. They are already doing this - over £1m revenue from such services appeared in the interim accounts for the first half of the year. Small beer at the moment but Texas give them the opportunity to scale this up considerably and so gives them a fourth option for funding (in addition to selling BTC, equity raises and loans).

@Trelawny - The cautionary wording in the RNS matches very closely to the risk statements that were a necessary part of the IPO prospectus including those that related to Texas, new rigs etc.

Whilst I never believed the 40 day quiet period meant they would keep silent I do believe it means they can't say things that are at odds with the prospectus. The prospectus included high level plans for Texas and the risks associated with them and the RNS just mirrors that - I don't think they can suddenly go gung-ho with positive spin or ignore the risks they have previously highlighted.

Thank you PP and glad you liked the last line. I hate it when people say they've got this qualification or that experience as it usually comes across as pompous and doesn't mean they're right - but it does mean they shouldn't need to be told the basics.

Again I don't disagree with anything you say except your conclusion. Yes the mcap is only 9% below its Jan 2020 peak but less than a month ago, just before the RI, the mcap was more than 35% below its Jan 2020 peak and that is my starting point and why I think EasyJet is not currently overvalued. It is only the influx of new capital that has moved it to 9% (plus a bit of good news) and of course, as you say, if they squander all this extra money then it may go back to being 35% below, but I'm very hopeful they won't!

So maybe we should just agree to differ on our conclusions and see where the sp goes from here. I suspect others have indeed been bored senseless by this debate but it is important. If your conclusion is right then I agree that to see anything higher than £9 in the foreseeable future is highly implausible. If I'm right then £9+ is very achievable but of course recognise that it is still full of challenges. GLA.

Every good RNS lately has had a 'but' to take the shine off - but not this one.

Not only does it confirm Q4's order and the new machines for Texas but it also confirms the Texas machines will be paid in instalments. This gives them plenty of options to fund them including, as BigChops pointed out, using the spare capacity to generate income by hosting other miners.

Tried unsuccessfully to top-up yesterday but no problems this morning and price hadn't moved up too much. Feel it's only a matter of time though.

PantherPat - Just realised that I may be doing you a disservice and you may not be a troll but that instead it is you who have mixed up mcap and EV - or at least in terms of the impact an equity raise has on them.

We both agree that mcap = number of shares x share price (as I am not nor have ever disputed this so I am not sure why you felt the need to explain it). Nor do I dispute your mcap numbers both now or early in 2020.

However, if a company raises, say, £1.2bn in a Rights Issue what should immediately happen to:

a) mcap
b) cash
c) EV

Answers:

a) mcap will increase by £1.2bn
b) cash will increase by £1.2bn
c) EV will be unchanged as the above two cancel out

If you agree with the above answers I cannot see how you are sticking to your argument, since the mcap is quite similar to its pre-covid level only because of the recent £1.2bn RI and the earlier $400m placing and not because it has magically held most of its value whilst all the other travel stocks have suffered so much more. It's raised more cash so its value (mcap) has gone up and this has mostly offset the sharp fall in mcap that would otherwise have happened.

If however you don't agree with the above answers then I suggest you google it or check the mcap of EZJ just before the RI was announced and now. In fact the EZJ mcap has increased by £1.5bn since September 8th (the day before the RI was announced) as the market has reacted favourably so far to the RI and/or other news such as easing of travel restrictions - meaning mcap has increased by more than the amount raised.

So to be clear I do not disagree with anything you have said in your last post except your interpretation of what this means for how the share value has effectively performed since Covid started. Thanks though for the patronising explanations - but I studied all this years ago for professional exams which, it will no doubt surprise you, I passed ;-)