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I suggest you try another site as I've been following TUI some time and it has never been that low. If you look at the charts on LSE and Yahoo they both say 280p for Sep 15th.

Agreed Amanensia - not sure what the confusion is.

And yes, large institutions hold rubbish shares everyday. Every major listed company has at least some large institutions invested in them and some of them will turn out to be rubbish. Of course I don't know which ones but the point is neither do they.

If someone believes that institutions investing in a stock is a great indicator of success then they must believe every stock is a golden ticket.

Also it is not exactly a secret where big fund managers are putting their money. They disclose it.

So totally agree that there are plenty of good reasons to invest in ARB, we don't have to make up bad ones.

"Wasn't this trading at £1.90 on 15 September?" - No, not even close.

Like Rum I don't agree with all of what you say but I think you've hit on a very good point and one reason why we shouldn't assume that ARB will just go up (or down) with BTC.

Investors are getting more and more opportunities to get exposure to BTC. If BTC rises all investments linked to its value should ultimately benefit but with so many to choose from it's probably not enough anymore to be one of the crowd but instead need increasingly to stand out from it. Yes, there are lots of good things posted on this board to suggest ARB does indeed stand out but is that really true for newbie investors? ARB hasn't increased mining capacity since February and has just diluted with a heavy discount. Also potential investors to any BTC related stock may simply have in mind what happened last time BTC reached an ATH.

So I'm not discouraged or even that surprised we're not motoring with BTC at the moment. ARB are playing a longer game than most in this space (focusing on infrastructure, diversifying etc.) which although it should mean better returns in the long run may mean we are overlooked in the short term. As those plans start to come to fruition though and the reported profits climb ARB will be very difficult to ignore. And the first step is getting those new machines that are due up and running.

I believe the new shares will start trading on Nov 2nd. Yes, it's not unusual for the sp to drop when they start trading, mainly I think because many people misunderstand RIs and think they are selling their new, discounted shares for a quick profit whereas all they are doing is crystallizing, in most cases, a loss. This selling pressure can drive the sp down a bit but other things may be happening at the time to offset (or exaggerate) this and of course lots can happen in the meantime.

So in short TUI may have already bottomed out or it could fall further, maybe even below £2, but it's impossible to call what the bottom is unless you are doing so with hindsight. Maybe it is better to just have a price in mind that you believe represents really good value and invest if it reaches it. Sure, you may not be investing at the bottom but at least you will be invested at a price you are comfortable with and have less chance of missing the boat altogether.

Agreed Crystal. All travel stocks down. If this latest fear over Covid materialises into more restrictions then clearly sp will drop further but if hospitalisations don't rise significantly and this alarm is just that, an alarm, then this fall will be short-lived. Whatever your views on whether we should shut up shop again or just learn to live with it the news and the uncertainty it's creating is having its expected impact on share prices - as it has many times over the last 18 months or so.

Personally I think there has been an overreaction this time in the media and market as numbers in hospital have been kept in check by the vaccines for months now but with the recent sharp rise in cases, winter coming and flu to also contend with there is at least a risk of things worsening again.

Riot are only claiming that they are probably going to be the first to actually use it and since it looks like this will be Q4 then to be fair they'll probably be right. Just highlights that ARB has great plans but successfully executing them now is key in terms of driving the sp up.

I don’t think they are available to retail investors and not sure why you would want to anyway compared to just buying the shares (as buying the rights then buying the shares at the discounted price that the rights apply to adds up to about the same as just buying the shares directly - in fact a little bit more it seems at the moment).

As you say it's a numbers game and there does seem to be a small advantage at the moment by selling the rights and then buying back as the rights price looks to be less than 180p below the sp - but would incur two sets of commission so for smaller funds any gains could easily be wiped out. Also of course the prices could move the wrong way as you go through the process.

Surprised though that there is the opportunity to do this as I thought the difference between the sp and the value of the rights stayed at around 183p (the discounted price of the new shares depending on exchange rates). Live and learn!

@fordm - my understanding is that although you have taken up the rights you can still change your mind up until whatever deadline is given by your broker (it varies but will be very soon). So if you just sell the rights instead (as @Swingman did) then you would just effectively be cancelling your previous request to take them up - but wouldn't be able to change your mind again (as once sold that's it). You can though simply buy back in as Swingman did but you would just be buying normal shares without rights so would just end up in the same place as if you had taken the rights in the first place (with perhaps a small profit or loss along the way depending on timing).

Rodney - that’s definitely how it’s working with my broker. They’ve set aside 192p but said explicitly they will return to my account anything they don’t need when they actually buy.

Good morning 600 - Did you mean £ or $? I presume dollars as otherwise we’d need most of the new machines on line for most of the month for £10m to happen and even then may need BTC to go a little crazy before Halloween.

Even $10m though needs some help from new machines and/or further rises in BTC in the next few days as difficulty levels are up again this month. Without such help ARB look to be heading for maybe $9-$9.5m. I would hope though that we do have enough new machines on line by now for revenues to push through $10m.

“Debt outweighs cash in bank.” - So? That’s typically how companies operate.

“It would appear iag is technically insolvent…”

No it’s not. Net assets are positive.

“…and requires a heavily dilutive rights issue. “

The CEO says they are not considering it but of course it’s still possible. Not definitely required though.

@Duka - The cost of each new share is 2.15 euros (not GBP) and this price is fixed and works out as about 183p.

The other numbers you are referring to relate to different things.

The ‘value of the rights’ is what you would get if you sold them. This should currently be around 79p so if instead of buying new shares at 183p each you can sell the rights for 79p each. This amount varies with the share price (sp) as it is the sp - 183p.

The sp is also what’s known as the ‘ex-rights’ price as it is the price of the shares without any rights as someone buying ordinary shares on the market now is no longer entitled to them.

The different numbers you have seen have been different peoples’ views on what this price should be based on what the (higher) price was before the rights issue (when the shares were entitled to rights).

In my view this is 280p as this is the ex-rights price equivalent to the sp when the RI was announced (326.8p). So at the moment TUI is trading below this, which means the price has fallen since the RI was announced by more than expected from just the impact of offering new discounted shares.

All these terms can be confusing but if you’re still not sure what they mean there’s lots of good info available online.

Nobody knows exactly what the quiet period stops them from communicating but they can certainly give machine updates - as they already have.

Agreed LT, best to stay conservative and interpret the results that way. We know mining margin which gives us current direct mining costs but cost of machines and other costs still have to be estimated though the current rate of depreciation on machines is now helpfully posted each month in the update. The only other big assumption is tax - this was very chunky in the half year results!

LT - I agree that looking at the PE Ratio is usually key in understanding value but for ARB it is particularly subjective. If doing a forward looking ratio what do you allow for BTC appreciation on HODL as this can be a significant part of earnings?

And once you have a number after deducting all costs and tax how do you interpret it? A result of 10 sounds the right kind of ballpark for ARB and would generally point to decent value. But ARB is growing fast so is it even better value? On the other hand you could argue that the volatility of BTC, the arms race for hashrate and the upcoming halving mean that valuing a company on as much 10x earnings is questionable.

In short doing the maths is one thing but drawing conclusions from it is another.

"If he is so heavily invested here, I’m totally dumbfounded as to why on earth he’d wish to be posting such negative replies to every positive post that’s put on this board. It makes no sense other than him being a pretty clever shorter in disguise."

Maybe he's simply just trying to temper some of the ridiculous ramping that plagues this board. More than £2 Monday? A 65%+ increase in SP in one day based on no reasoning and no news?

Ramping is just as unhelpful to naïve investors as de-ramping and managing expectations is a good way of dealing with it. I just try to ignore both but to his credit Chuz calls it out - just like most would do if the same poster was making silly de-ramping statements (which is exactly what happened last week on multiple occasions). Short memories.

@600 - It's nice to think about where this may all end up but I feel it's a bit premature to start counting all the possible chickens when we've only just started to build the hen house. Figures are still good to see though if only for the maximum potential.

However, I do think you should make allowance for increasing difficulty. As the excellent video posted by Flowerpot earlier today indicated the global hashrate will at least double over the next year based just on the machine orders from miners that are already known about.

I would also not like Saylor to have a $500m stake in the company as I doubt he'd do that as a friendly loan - more likely for a share of the profits i.e. one massive dilution.

So although it's nice to dream, the realist in me suggests evaluating each rig order (and any other event) as it becomes known and what we already know is probably good enough for starters!

@HarChris - just because I disagree with you doesn’t mean I’m not on your side ;)

So hope you’re right and I agree IF BTC keeps this up then the dam will burst. I invested less to do with BTC though and more to do with the company and in my view any growth in sp like there has been today will be more sustainable as they execute their plans - starting with getting to 1.7 EH asap.

The spike in demand today is great but may just as easily reverse if BTC does. The machines, Texas development etc will not so easily disappear once in place!