Member Info for Hexam

So no proof then - just your own conjecture. Just so I know. Thanks.

"The masks are the spreading the virus. There are mountains of proof now."

Where? I've only seen articles evidencing all the research that shows masks reduce the spread of the virus but if you have 'mountains' of evidence to the contrary (apart from that one Danish study) then happy to look at the alternate view.

"Why is random investors all in mined costs always higher than what the miners publish as it’s costs for all in mined costs ?"

It depends what you are comparing with. Random Investor's all-in costs are exactly that i.e. they include all costs (though he does exclude what he considers 'one-offs' and technical items like foreign exchange).

ARB published their costs per coin are around $6k but the costs here were only direct costs of mining i.e. hosting and electricity.

Random Investors shows $12k as he has included the other costs (but in this line he has also excluded depreciation). So the additional costs he included are wages, consulting and professional fees etc.

Basically what he is doing is trying to get financials on a like-for-like basis between companies and including all relevant costs as companies have very different ways of presenting things and it can be very misleading just lifting numbers of their accounts and using them directly.

What Amanensia said :-)

Having watched the interview a couple of times I have mixed feelings. Good to see PW on form and confident and after watching I felt better about him and also about the company - but worse about it as an investment.

It seems other miners are striving for growth whilst ARB are striving for perfection but personally I'd rather they were mining more coins with a bit less margin. As Blonity said, having great margins is much less important in a bull cycle (though a very different story in a bear one).

It seemed to me that the 1.7EH is being delayed a little more (we'll soon find out for sure in the next update) and that there will be no other major news until immersion is up and running and machines start going into into Texas - including the existing ones they are currently fixing/making ready in Canada.

I also agree with Blonity that the valuation of miners has levelled out with no one miner being significantly undervalued against another.

So overall I can't see any reason for the sp to move upwards much in the next 4-6 months, especially against other miners who appear to be expanding more aggressively and taking better advantage of the current bull cycle.

Therefore, like others, I'm reducing my holding for now as it feels very much like jam tomorrow, very tasty jam, but still tomorrow. If the bear cycle does hit (though PW seemed to think this may not happen - steady appreciation with pull-backs was his line) then this ought to be when ARB's high margins and other plans come into play and so for me that will be a better time to invest.

“Unless you are a crest trader your retail broker would have got you a quote something like 148 when the ask was 145. Retail accounts never get quotes that look like the market prices.”

Makes me doubt you do any trading if you think this. Either that or I recommend you change your broker.

"you need this to go up only 40 percentish per day"

ah...but you forgot compounding. With that it's less than 10% per day. Easy peasy ;-)

Amanensia,

Sounds like you've the made the choice for the right reasons, for you anyway. As you say everybody should have an exit strategy - far better than panic selling or holding come what may which as approaches are equally ridiculous. I will certainly miss your intelligent, sensible and well balanced posts. Good luck.

Disagree

Yes, you heathen Chuz - looking at facts and using logic and reason.

I must admit you are bit too negative for my liking, and I certainly don't always agree with you, but at least you look at things critically and post well thought out musings on ARB which is far more useful than posts just attacking other posters and that include absolutely nothing of any value about ARB - good or bad.

"Here's a good side by side comparison of Argo and Hut8 to show how undervalued Argo currently is"

I'm not actually seeing this. Even assuming all the figures are correct (which they aren't - see comparison of costs of revenue for starters) I don't see how you can tell from just these figures. The higher HODL of Hut8, higher current hashrate and higher planned hashrate would all suggest a higher mcap to me particularly if Hut8's expansion is already funded (which I don't know - just that ARB's isn't). The profit numbers appear similar but this can be misleading as different miners account for things differently. Without more info it is impossible to say but the numbers presented certainly aren't conclusive one way or the other.

It was $50m + 15% at underwriter’s discretion and now it’s $40m + 15% at underwriter’s discretion - though I think the previous figure was just a placeholder as never officially announced (just as with some of the early IPO numbers).

“how we are going to get 200mw of rugs up and running by middle of next year...”

Thanks for making me chuckle. I presume we’re not going for cheap tat…maybe Persian? Not sure where the electricity comes in though…

Yes, brokers have private meetings - I've experience of being in them. What they cannot do is discuss anything that if known more widely/that they act upon could have an impact on sp. That is insider trading. By definition if the sp is falling because of information discussed at these meetings then it is insider trading and illegal.

I have no problem with speculation but not when it is stated as a fact. My own speculation is that the falls across the sector are simply a reaction to the rising Covid levels in Europe. An impact that I feel will be short-lived just as it was when rates rose sharply in the UK recently. I may be wrong but at least I accept that and do not try to state opinion as fact.

"There is some piece of information out there which is not getting through to pi level. Brokers keeping something close to their chest form the private meetings."

Pure, unfounded, scaremongering speculation. As well as being illegal if discussions at such meetings cross the line of insider trading.

I see you're starting to catch on @Danphonic :) It's not a contrary or negative view that I have an issue with. In fact I welcome a negative view more as it challenges my thinking and if I can answer that challenge it can strengthen my conviction in a share but if I can't then maybe it presents a good reason to reconsider my investment choice.

However, when that view is consistently negative, agenda driven, frequently repeated (and at length!) and is always finding the evidence to fit a given view (rather than the other way round) then it is not worth bothering with. So for me I don't filter anybody but just try to ignore any such agenda driven nonsense - whether de-ramping or ramping.

In this case for every article that claims masks don't work there are several that claim they do. The same with most things really - you can nearly always find something to support your argument whatever it is.

People should be presented with both sides to help make their own mind up - or even better they should simply do the research themselves.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-what-does-the-science-actually-say-about-face-masks-12349337

Agree with second point but it is a big risk as yes, the value of the loan should fall over time but it is not guaranteed. So however confident you are, or more to the point, PW is that BTC will go up is it a good idea to use all the BTC as collateral and then be left with a major headache if BTC drops sharply - as it did earlier this year?

I agree this is a good way to raise funds but probably better when they've got a few more BTC to play with.

"I have no idea why PW has not followed the Saylor funding playbook more ie borrow value losing fiat against the value holding HODL."

1) There is limited scope for this as some of the HODL is already being used as collateral for the remaining part of the Galaxy Loan. Reckon the most they could raise from rest of HODL is about $50m and that's pushing it whilst leaving little wriggle room

2) They'd have to pay it back. What with? Just sell BTC later? Another loan? They paid $25m of the Galaxy Loan back from IPO proceeds - not a good precedent

The loan they have just taken out seems a better option as the interest rate is not bad given it is unsecured and the latest payback date so far down the road that hopefully by then the amount will seem relatively insignificant. It also means the BTC is not tied up which gives greater liquidity and flexibility. Really think this is the best option at the moment.

$57.5m is clearly not enough for the filling out of 200mW (as various estimates, including from their own leaked comments on Twitter) suggest the costs of machines alone will be around $250m and the $114m raised from the IPO was earmarked almost entirely for the infrastructure build of Texas plus partial repayment of the Galaxy Loan (with the remaining part of that loan intended for financing machines).

So there is the prospect of either more loans, more equity raises or selling of BTC to get the 200mW fully utilised. But so what? They are building incrementally so it makes sense to raise funds incrementally. I think they'd struggle to raise all the funds in one go unless they sold all their BTC now or pulled every other lever to the the limit - and maybe beyond.

So personally I'm very happy that they are proceeding step by step making use of all the options available to them as they go depending on circumstances at the time and since those circumstances change I don't expect they (are certainly not me) to know what these steps will be in advance. The loan I believe though was a big and very welcome step.

One last thing - the $57.5m is actually a round number not a very specific one as it is a very round $50m plus the option to sell an extra 15% at the discretion of the underwriters.

@ambyth

I don’t think it is actually as what it misses is that there is a few percent drop off every month (as can be seen from previous months’ figures) as the existing machines age a month more.