Member Info for Hexam

Ah, so you're just inferring it and not only that you say that the your over-estimate of 6 months cash runway (it's actually one it seems) was not down to your own poor guesswork but because ARB were 'blatantly lying' on the figures they gave.

So now you are believing what they tell you and even though haven't said this funding will see them through 12 months you think that it will just because that was the aim of previous attempts of funding (that failed) - and that you believed.

Got it.

“that rns is basically saying, they will soon have enough funds to get through the next 12 months”

Does it? I can’t see 12 months mentioned. And it’s certainly not saying they will have those funds.

Hi Wolf - Don’t know about any size criteria but believe there are ‘fit and proper person’ rules…

Yes Krauty/Rory - just jaw-dropping. At least this gives hope of getting something back but I didn’t believe they could outdo the worst from their back-catalogue of ‘mishaps’ but hey - wrong again.

“I thought CINE filed for Chapter 11 three months ago?”

Yes, indeed :)

And interestingly not at any point in that time (or just before) have the shares been suspended.

And there was an RNS from them (which for CINE is saying something)!

“Argo still has more chance of eventually paying off its debts than Cine ever does.”

That could well be the case but is answering a different question.

*sorry - if ARB goes into Ch 11 obviously

Ok - forget CINE. We just have a different view. Your opinion is if CINE goes into Chapter 11 (and I agree that it is an ‘if’) then there is a reasonable chance it will come out stronger - or at least be ok. I don’t.

But also what you fail to mention is how many cases of those companies that do come out stronger do the existing shareholders also come out ok? Not many.

So I believe Chapter 11 in ARB’s case will spell the end for shareholders - but fully accept I could well be wrong.

Poor, it was you who mentioned CINE and my reply was because you also said this:

“A lot of companies come out of chapter 11 stronger, they just get their debt restructured, hence me asking Chaebol, this could go either way again and again.”

Sounds bullish to me and my point was that I can’t see ARB being one of those companies.

Yes chapter 11 is very different to chapter 7 but also ARB is very different to CINE. Where CINE is a profitable business made temporarily unprofitable by covid, ARB has no chance of being profitable again unless BTC shoots back up. CINE is not guaranteed to be profitable again either as it relies on studios eventually getting production back to pre-covid levels but it’s chances are much better and far more predictable.

I can see why lenders have supported CINE to keep them operational AND finance the huge costs of the chapter 11 process. I can’t see any such business case for ARB so I very much doubt any chapter 11 will bring eventual joy to us aa shareholders. Even in CINE’s case that is by no means guaranteed.

AB - Just ignore Jtan. The ‘hostility’ and ‘spite’ he speaks of is just the same as he dishes out to those posting negative things on boards where he’s invested - so for him you can add hypocrisy to the list.

Yes, he said lower payments but think it only affects timing so less today means more tomorrow. Helps cash flow in the short term though.

"NYDIG loan is btc backed?"

It's not. It's backed by machines and other electrical equipment. However he did mention something about the speed at which it was paid back was impacted by BTC price/profitability but as usual he was very vague as to what that actually meant.

"You still thinking they have 1 or 2 months left?"

I've been saying 3 or 4 months so don't know where you got that from. Having said that, the suspension suggests perhaps that I may have been too optimistic as well.

Pointless speculating further now though as RNS will hopefully drop very soon and we can't trade anyway.

"Yuri, unless PW and the whole ARB workforce having cocaine breaks 10 times a day, you want to review your figures. That’s $10m if they mine 200 btc at 50,000. Burn rate at the moment is around 4 million dollars a month."

Hate to break it to you PI but that figure is not too far off (not so sure about Yuri's other numbers but we're way beyond the stage of worrying about debt to equity ratio etc. anyway). At the moment the all-in cost is around $40-$45k per BTC mined. So yes, total costs last month were $8-$9m so a loss of about $6m in November (before allowing for BTC fall in value during the month).

However cash costs are only about $30k per BTC mined so they 'only' lost $2-$3m of cash and that is the key thing at the moment. Maybe this is what you are quoting as the burn rate of around $4m?

Of course if they have started on the cocaine then the above numbers will be somewhat worse.

Either way I don't share your optimism that's they've got as much as 6 months left but impossible to be certain, especially without Q3 numbers to go on.

I expect an RNS tomorrow, as would be appalling not to communicate something, and that this may tell us how long they think they have or even that entering bankruptcy proceedings is imminent. On the other hand it could be more encouraging, or at least less ominous, but personally I'm not expecting anything positive.

I suppose though it doesn't have to come out at 7am as they don't have to worry about the market being open but for the same reason they may just not bother at all...

You could think of it as positive but my point is simply that finding out which it will be is unlikely to be revealed by the docs and worse it would be very easy to read the wrong thing into them.

Exactly - all options are on the table and the docs simply reflect that so don’t really help in terms of which option it may end up being.

Spot on Wolf and as you were saying before, just what you’d expect i.e. just details of work covering all the possible outcomes and not the treasure trove full of hidden gems that some naively believe.

Yes - agree that CINE and ARB are NOT comparable which is why I doubt the rumour a bit though as krauty says ARB has form on this kind of thing.

Like you though, if true, I think any chapter 11 is likely to be short-lived and the only logic I can think of is a quick, alternate and maybe better route for the ‘strategic investor’ to get involved or even take control. Even that seems far-fetched though. NYDIG are the interesting party though as they are now the only lender of real note left I think apart from a mortgage or two.

I was just trying to find a reason for the unusual trading last week but otherwise I think we are agreeing basically!

Chae - It mentions Chapter 11 which means it could be a drawn out process and any short already in profit would surely be tempted to take the winnings and run?

This is not a similar situation to CINE though so it is hard to see a drawn out process or even the logic behind a Ch 11 in the first place and whether it is even possible?

The trading activity was unusual last week with the price being driven up at close so someone was keen to get hold of stock for whatever reason.