Member Info for Hexam

So if Disney came in with an offer of $1bn for Regal do you think they'd just be turned away?

Also court docket 1234 (23rd Jan) which give the deadline:

"The Debtors, in conjunction with the Ad Hoc Group and the Committee, established a deadline of February 16, 2023, for parties to submit non-binding indications of interest."

steward1 - although I don't think you're right, I hope you are :-)

"do you not think that there are multiple options with the debt?

I doubt very much if any deal will involve repaying the lenders all of their debt either because a bidder will play hardball with them or the deal will include a partial repayment of debt."

Totally agree. But in those circumstances I don't see there being anything much, if at all, left for shareholders. The debt is now over $6bn (not $5bn as someone else has posted). I think you are quite right that they may end up being offered a repayment of $4bn (or even partial repayment and continuation of a smaller loan in the new company). If that's the case though why would the purchasers pay anything more to shareholders apart from perhaps a token amount? Surely they've got more chance of getting their bid accepted if they offer that extra money instead to the lenders who are the ones pulling the strings?

If you think the RNS can now be ignored then fine, that of course a possibility and so it's a perfectly valid opinion. I just happen to disagree so we'll just have to see which of us is right - and I don't think we'll have too long to find out :)

To be clear I still think there is upside here - I'm just not getting sucked into the crazy and, in my view, nasty ramping going on here from others (not you).

Rampers trying to get PIs to buy through exaggerated hopes and misinformation are every bit as loathsome in my book as trolls trying to get PIs to sell through exaggerated fears and misinformation.

"Does that mean CINE can sell the Group aka assets without triggering the Takeover Code? That means CINEWORLD as a company will continue to exist after selling the Group."

Tegop - That is exactly what they are saying and why a pence per share offer is not on the cards. Instead it will be a pound/dollar amount and this has to be more than $6bn for shareholders to benefit, UNLESS (as I think very possible) they are not including RoW in this.

"The backstop for me is that ROW may well be left on its own but that in itself is worth a multiple of the current sp!"

Steward, I agree that is a very possible backstop and that it is what I believe the RNS is saying. In the RNS they define the CW 'group' as the all the businesses within the Chapter 11 - which of course does not include ROW. So when they talk of any purchase being for the whole group within that RNS I don't think they are including ROW.

I also agree that ROW on its own is likely to mean a higher sp than today. Of course my interpretation of the RNS could be wrong but one thing I am confident on is that a sale of shares for the whole of CW is not on the table as they have been so explicit on this (and is not in my opinion feasible anyway with the size of debt that would have to be taken on by any purchaser).

As has been rightfully pointed out, if anything remotely like a 50p share bid was a serious possibility we wouldn't be looking at a 5p share price today.

Steward - that is not contradictory if you read all the RNS. I’m not being naive, it’s those that are thinking a 50p per share bid is likely or even possible that are.

Or they are being deliberately misleading to try and pump the share for their own ends.

“ I don't necessarily agree that this is an asset sale …there seems to be contradictory statements about that.”

Such as?

“Not one of us on this BB has the foresight and certainty to call out what those terms will be.”

That is true but we CAN be sure there will not be a 50p a share takeover offer as the company have told us explicitly they are not selling the shares, whether for 5p, 50p or £5.

This is an asset sale (if it is not a D4E) and this means the debt will need to be dealt with first and if it cannot be dealt with fully then we will be left with nothing if all the assets are sold.

Our best chance of recovering something is most likely a partial sale where we are left some of the business or a D4E where we are left some of the equity.

A 50p takeover is not happening though for the simple reason that a takeover, in the way many have been describing it, is not happening at all. That is not foresight - it’s just what we’ve already been told.

“what makes you think that the rule applies in this case.”

That rule does not apply here. It is an asset sale not a share sale and besides I think it only applies to a previous buyer of shares.

Cheers Huss. Btw you seemed quite downbeat a couple of days ago and I think you were talking about selling?

Was there anything recently that prompted this? This could still easily go either way and it’s difficult to tell which, I’m just hopeful, but I haven’t seen any big pluses or minuses lately. I just wondered if there was anything in the last few days you’ve seen or heard that particularly concerned you?

Hi Huss, the Jan 4 presentation also showed them ahead on cash, despite the losses, and the reasons given included things like deferring payments, paying in instalments and getting discounts on outstanding balances. So they’ve been managing cash ‘aggressively’ in their words whilst falling short of box office expectations and making losses.

The shortfall in box office numbers was also partially offset by higher spend per person and lower costs.

The $182m referred to does not relate to Q4 profit - that has already been reported as over $400m loss through the monthly operating reports. It looks like they have beaten box office expectations by 20% in January which is very encouraging but they fell short in Q4 (by 29% in October, 39% in November and 44% in December - see Jan 4th presentation).

The rest of the article sounds upbeat, especially around the bids so we'll see what comes of these...soon hopefully.

"One analyst via Stockopedia using Refinitiv data,
who has last year’s revenue 31.12.22 then pegged at $3.752B"

I'm afraid that estimate must have been done a while ago as we now know the revenue is around $3bn for 2022.

We know this as they've actually reported revenue now for virtually the whole year. This includes December for US and UK as the monthly operating report has just been corrected for Regal (docket 1299) with Picturehouse under docket 1298 and the rest of UK under docket 1297.

The same reporting also points to the earnings being far removed from 2019 with a loss in 2022 of around $750m.

So sadly 2022 is not anywhere near 2019 but the valuations being done of the business will be forward looking so hopefully they'll be using numbers in that which are much closer to 2019 levels.

Btw the 2019 Free Cash Flow of $832m is overstated as it doesn't deduct lease payments of over $600m.

Well Avatar has certainly got legs - but they'd have to be on very long stilts to get that.

Cruis - I'd forgotten about that absolute corker. Every PME closely followed (well in the next few weeks or so) by a momentous RNS, like a six monthly block listing return - or another PME...

"if a poster was to say what they think we will get for it, 10p to a pound
in a bid scenario been priced ATM to go bust, you will only get jumped on by the SHORTS"

There's been some very good discussion today about the value of the business and it is this discussion if anything that is being jumped upon - by clueless rampers who don't like some of the less optimistic answers coming out and instead just start the abuse as well as the tiresome talk about shorters and 'agendas'.

I'm pretty sure there are no shorters left on this board (they've made their money and long since departed). I suspect most, like me, are simply weary LTHs just trying to figure out where we're going from here and whether it's best to average down, hold or finally jump ship.

Personally I still think it's worth holding (and potentially adding) as I still rate the chances of a reasonable upside more than I do that of a complete wipeout - just my view though. I just find the nonsense ramping of a few on here irritating and gets in the way of good debate (just as the trolling of old did but from the opposite direction).

Truth is that apart from some of the crazier theories and numbers being thrown out on this forum we can't be sure how it's all going to end, we just have to wait a little longer to see what bidders are prepared to bid (and for what) or, if it's a D4E, what percentage of the business we are left with. In the meantime GL to all other weary LTHs and here's hoping for some better news soon!

“HNS, there is nothing on that link that say 11th AUG 2022”

That link has several tabs. Look on the Analyst Ratings tab, scroll down and that’s where you’ll find each broker, their price target and the date it was given. The latest entry is 12th Sep but with no price target. The next two are both dated 11th August and those are the ones for 40p.

So both targets were set before chapter 11 commenced and so are meaningless - but by all means keep digging a hole and spreading misinformation.

"BWTFDIK"

Nothing it seems. Out of all your ridiculous, non-stop ramping that one takes the biscuit. Wrong in so many ways.

The link provided by Alak actually shows that the last targets were set 11th August by JP Morgan and Berenberg, both at 40p - so balloon popped I'm afraid.