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Agree with both points 👍👍
Cadian Capital Management, LP 0.53%
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BNYK8G86/
The question is are Crowd overpriced & S1 right priced or somewhere in the middle?
Either way its an upside of 50% to 360%
Sentinel One is similar ARR at $724M vs Dark $731M
They are 9.25x ARR
So easily Dark is 50% off its lowest US competitor
Bringing SP to 773
Typo that should be 6x which makes it 2394 which makes you RIGHT!
Crowd is trading at 28x ARR
Dark is trading at 14x
Taking just that metric ignoring profit and noting Dark has 41% of the customers of Crowd
Like for like the SP should be 1026
I think £23 is too high but from a comparison a valid comment
I did a comparison to loads of other SaaS companies a while back showing ARR to valuation multipliers and back then Dark was 700-1100 low end with a realistic 1200 fair value (by comparison). Revenue is stronger now so I need to redo that. Would love 2300 but feel 700 is about right for current performance but forward looking or buyout it certainly must be in the 1000-1500 range.
Https://uk.investing.com/equities/darktrace-consensus-estimates
Here's a UK version https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/gb:dark/forecast
If you look at the current price it is the same as it is in £ they just have not changed character ie. it shows current price 510.60
Interesting WSJ Analyst Consensus shows BUY with 513 low, 700 mid (where I believe is fair value) & 1118 high
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/UK/XLON/DARK/research-ratings
A takeover discussion could hit any anytime (like Aug 2022) and it will pop overnight - I'm sitting tight on my holding
All their data on Revenue, ARR, Customer growth, Churn, Forecast growth, Cyber AI Market etc is solid
Beyond Crowdstrike there are many viable actors to bid for such an undervalued business;
Microsoft
IBM
Oracle
EMC
Cisco
Computer Associates
VMWare
Dell
HP
Pal Alto Networks
Okta
Google
Norton
McAfee
Symantec
SentinalOne
Sophos
Trend Micro
At 513p
Market Cap is £3.59B / $4.49B
ARR is at 731.1M
Customers at 9,402
Crowdstrike is sitting at
Market Cap $71.98B
ARR is $2.56B
Customers at 23,019
So Dark has
28.5% of the ARR of Crowd
40.8% of the customers of Crowd
BUT only 16% the valuation of Crowd
Seems like a no brainer buy out for Crowd to add 9,402 customers paying $731.1M a year
or any of their competitors to gain Markey share against Crowd
Link https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/why-darktrace-is-getting-exciting-again
"Analysts continue to claim that Darktrace stock is being undervalued compared to US peers"
I've got until close Friday but not a bad forecast
The Boss must be saying to the Investment Manager who upped the short "You're a silly quant"
Qube quants must be getting promoted for upping their short 🙄
I’m thinking Qubes graduate quants & developers are not very familiar with software SaaS ARR subscription models. Being x Credit Suisse you wonder after one collapse why they are the only ones targeting Dark 🤔
Seems they can’t make their mind up 🤔
Up & Down like a yo-yo 🪀
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BNYK8G86/
So now the consensus is
Strong Buy - 3
Buy - 11
Hold - 3
Sell - 0
Strong Sell -0