RE: Interesting28 Jun 2019 15:05
Not sure that I am going to the AGM, I am having lunch with PA on the Monday and so probably just pointless duplication.
The bits you quoted are just my view, I could be wrong but I calculated the May revenue figures to within $5k before it was in the public domain.
Work is ongoing at ZR and probably Austin and maybe FW. On these older wells they need lots of TLC. I don't think the results announced on the Austin wells were the optimal production figures. For instance, I expect them to get a better result out of Montsanko/Morris 1. Once they finish adjusting those two wells, they should be able to get 60 bopd.
During June they will have been doing the delayed workovers at ZR and maybe at FW. On FW they said they had to re-engage with the local services provider for the workovers.
So for the work done during June we won't have a full months production and for the early part of the month oil prices were lower. The gas price is weak but I did warn CW about the seasonality of gas prices. Personally, I would do workovers on gas wells (FW) in September to bring extra production online going into the price rises. Spending money now for extra production in July and August is poor timing in my view.
I also think that oil prices are heading to $70: global demand increases about 3% pa but production declines are about 9%. So new production required each year is about 12 mil barrels per day and it is not happening and has not been happening for three years or so.
Overview. June will be a bit better than May: month end production higher but early month cash sales lower. July we will have a full months production for the work done in June/May. So cash sales for July should be pretty good if prices hold up. I pointed out to CW that we used to get a premium price for the gas at OK and he has looked into it: I don't know what the result was. If you look back and read some of the old RNSs relating to OK, Randy was quite excited about the price we could get on the OK gas.
The big one is the Stanhauser well at Austin; at some point they will have to address it. Potentially it is a big producer but it looks like we need a fishing tool on it and then the workover: total cost might be $100k which is a big commitment and no guarantee of succcess. If the downhole pump is stuck and they can't fish it then the well might be abandoned till a later date. If they can sort that well then they might get a similar result to the Ritchie Talley.
Things for us to look at: there are 18 wells at ZR to work over and it may be possible that they can get some production out of the older wells which have not been produced for a while. So where are they up with that process? Next we want to know about the sub-surface surveys and the reserves reports. Third we need to know about future plans.
To really take this forward we need new drills and/or new assets. If they can get this to maybe $380/$400k pm revenue going into September then we will have a good base to w