RE: Wish Attis30 Aug 2019 12:12
Hit the wrong key.
If you look at the Moyes report from 2014 it said EUR of 400k barrels on two 500ft horizontal drills costing $500k each. With modern tech you would probably push that horizontal drill out a bit (limited by the extent of the lease) but the lease is about 861 acres which is about 1.5 square miles. Depending on the drill site you could theoretically drill out for over a mile or about 5,500ft. If the results were pro-rata to the 2014 proposal you would expect EUR of about 4.4mil barrels. But...….. 1. Would the company intend to drill 5,500 ft? 2. Could the company afford it? 3. would it want to take the technical risk? 4. Is the oil in place to justify drilling out 5,500ft? 5. if that is not possible what is possible, fundable, realistic and worth taking the risk for?
My view is that if the report comes back with around 4mil/5mil barrels in reserves that will be a decent result and my view is that is a possible result. The process they are going through will be an iterative one, where one party raises issues and the other party responds. This won't be one big solution but lots of smaller solutions adding up to a big result. I know very little about the Fort Worth asset for instance except it is largely gas with some condensate. Is there oil there in formations that have not been drilled? Gas is a bit of an issue in the US, they use lots of it but the price is very low (not as low as it has been). I expect the price will move to $3.50 Jan/Feb 20 and if it is a hard winter maybe $4.50/$5.00 but then it will drop back down again. Do we want capital tied up in gas assets, do we want to commit more capital to developing gas assets, do we want to sell?
DYOR
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