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I will have a listen. I did do one from £147 to £1.2mil but being a nob, I didn't sell: I did bank £580k out of it though.

I did one years ago in the dot com boom: went from 19p to £2.30: is that good enough?

To be fair to him he was working on the Coop/Coventry Building Society merger and they couldn't do without him. Amazing he could fit it all in. You know Poland, SA, London and Estonia/Finland all from his bike saddle. Busy boy for a retiree

Boring Boy will be gone soon along with his lunch money. Didn't he promise he would leave if production started at Bilbale. His time is a running out, day at a time. Each day that passes, that kit is about 240 miles closer. No doubt he will find some other company he has never been invested in to benefit from his "skill set".

His maths are scheizzer.

Operational Research: multiple stage capital allocation decision making was fun.

I missed this on Friday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reconafrica-announces-operations-joint-venture-100000398.html

Recon as acreage to the North and North East of Elephant Oil's acreage in Namibia. They are testing the same geology: Whaleback Anticlines in the Damara Fold Belt.

Fingers crossed.

DYOR

So over the last couple of years at various times we have had people on here telling us that RRR is a basket case. That, at different times, Premier African Minerals, Caracal and Marula are much better and that RRR could learn a lot.

Well all things come to pass.

For the last six months we have had people warning that RRR will be suspended. Well RRR is not but I can't say the same for two of the others. Obviously not Prem but Prem is down from about £140mil, when I set up my plan to short them, to about £31mil even after all the fund raising and share issuance. Prem has spent about $75mil on a plant that still doesn't do what it says on the tin but apparently ALR does everything wrong and Prem can do no wrong. At least ALR hasn't borrowed a load of money and spent it for no return.

Remember that in a couple of weeks.

DYOR

Nike, full mechanisation should bring the cost of production right down to $300/$500 per oz (no one knows till it is done but that is what one would expect).

Some accountants on here might not understand this because they did cost and management accounting a long time ago and only regurgitate AISC, AISC ad infinitum like it means something.

The biggest factor on the marginal cost is the grade and second the volume that the plants can process. That is, if it is high grade and low clay, then the marginal cost will be lower.

As to volume, once fully mechanised that is down to the area of alluvial and the thickness of the pay dirt. The bigger the resource the bigger the wash plants you can put in. You wouldn't want to put in really big washplants if you are going to run out of feedstock in six months.

The licence is 180 km2 ish and I suspect about a third is alluvial (I don't know). The alluvium has been deposited by the Black Volta, it maybe we can get other alluvial areas in due course.

I expect that if you are going to move big heavy duty kit in, you would want at least a three year life out of it. They will know more once they are on site and doing the doings,

Don't forget they also have the hard rock to deal with.

DYOR

Talkie, what you do or don't believe is a matter for you.

I would suggest that you are the one speculating.

There is absolutely no point in RRR/Faso having staff out there on payroll sitting around doing nothing because there is insufficient feedstock.

I have no view on DRC. It will be done or not done. Every time we think that the matter has been resolved another issue crops up. We are in a process that eventually will time out. We just have to make sure that we play the game whilst waiting. We were very close before the election. So who knows?

As I have said a couple of times, (and of course the trolls try to reconstruct it another way, it seems no stupidity is beyond them) compared to Bilbale, DRC is now small beer. DRC is a stock and BF is a flow. So DRC will be $7.5mil less costs whilst Bilbale could easily be $1mil pm net to RRR.

The main upside to getting the DRC Arb ruling is that we can then pursue Big G having boxed off DRC.

DYOR

Nike, I was responding to Talkie. He was saying no production at Bilbale till August because the heavy kit wouldn't be arriving till then.

So I was giving a feel for things. We know that there is a stockpile at surface previously mined by the illegals.

I was giving a lower case work through based on there being only sufficient material for five days (illustrative and not fact). NB I don't know that there is only sufficient for five days.

To get an annual figure you would divide by five and multiply by 365. In practice no plant ever works 365. Typical assumed plant availability is 90%. You have downtime for maintenance and things go wrong and parts need to be replaced, the machines get clogged and need to be cleaned etc. 95% availability and someone is working miracles.

My point was that even if we only had enough material at surface for five days, we would be off to a good start. My view is that if there was only five days worth of feedstock then they would delay sending the kit out. In practice, the amount of feedstock is likely to be much higher. Remember, AB said that they had a fully mechanised operation and was completely illegal.

The same model on 365 days/90% uptime is circa $16mil.

But as I keep saying until they are actually on the ground doing the doings then no one knows: it is just modelling, it is not a forecast.

As long as there is no material delay in sending the heavy kit I expect we will have continuous production.

DYOR

News, that is not the best case scenario.

Concentrators, they are only limited by the number that Sam owns. If he has more, then more can be shipped in due course.

2 g/t is a modelled average. Part of what they are doing is sampling different areas. It would be unusual if all areas are 2 g/t: the usual thing is that there are areas of high grade and areas of low grade.

We already know that the company expects 4 g/t: 2 g/t in free gold and 2 g/t in saprolite.

It may be that the feed material is low clay, in which case we can process faster. Again, it would be unusual if the material is consistent and you would expect some variability as we process different areas.

The company has also said it intends to process alluvial at Boulon.

Remember this is "trial" mining. Although the number seem largeish from this end of the telescope, the big numbers are when we go fully mechanised. At that point we can use the big washplants that Talkie was mentioning. Now once that happens you are talking about washplants that can do 1,000 tph.

As we get closer to that you would expect that the market moves its focus from daily production to the size of the resource in place. So how much of the lease is alluvial, what is the depth of the pay zone and how thick is it? In doing that the market is moving from valuing the day to day cashflow to valuing an income stream. That is when you would expect the EBITDA multiple to increase. The key term is 7 years (because the arithmetical effect on NPV reduces significantly from year 7 onwards); if Faso can show resources to match 7 years plus production, then the EBITDA moves from a likely 3x towards a likely 9x/12x.

A lot to play for here with the hard rock on top but it ain't done yet.

DYOR

Why do people repeat the same points when they have already been dealt with numerous times.

1. There is material stockpiled at the site that will take a while to process.

2. These concentrators only process 1.5 tph/6 tph depending on the clay content.

3. Lets suppose 10 concentrators at 3 tph for 10 hours a day. That is 300 tpd. 300 tpd at 2 g/t is 600 g which is 21.16 oz per day.

4. Lets suppose there is only enough material stockpiled for 5 days. That 1,500 t and 105.8 oz of gold. At $2,300 that is $243k,

5. If they have to stop for a couple of days am I bovvered?

6. For the stockpiled material, we don't need excavators and heavy trucks. We need one or two of those small front loader dump trucks.

7. Lets suppose the above is true. A. it proves the gold is there B. it proves the grade C. it proves that Faso can process successfully and the kit works D. it proves the gold can be sold locally.

Now you might think that is negative but I don't.

Lastly, why do you think we need circa 70 Burkinabes; a big chunk of this will be manual labour.

This cannot be a heavily mechanised operation until we have the production licence permitting fully mechanised production. To get that we need an EIA and EISA and so on. I can't see that we get the production licence before October/November unless we can do a deal with the Govt. It could be that we can persuade the Govt that the rules are aimed at hard rock mining and not alluvial mining. If that happens (the Govt wants as much revenue as possible) then we are seriously rocking and rolling.

DYOR

Is that £20 buy you or BoringBoy putting your lunch money in or maybe going 50/50?

How am I making a prediction? Read the RNS. The RNS says it, not me. At some point the point the market prices the start of production in, no idea when it does that but probably the day before you lob your £250 in.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/RRR/update/16539513

"Movement of an initial group of supervisory personnel into country is planned for early July. "

" Concentrators and other equipment sailed ex-African port with arrival scheduled early July"

"We anticipate an early start to operations as soon as equipment arrives."

So unless the trolls can arrange for a U Boat attack that kit will be landed early July. This becomes more real with each passing day. At some point the market realises this is real and the SP responds. At what point? Who knows?

It could when the kit is landed, when it is in country or in site or start of production..

On start of production it will the third asset brought into production by RRR; it would have been the 4th but for VUP messing around. Boringboy, I know they are mates of yours but they seriously messed up.

DYOR

NB most exploration companies don't even bring one asset into production.

Day closer to production. That kit is getting closer with every day and with it the start of production.

DYOR

Still hanging in there waiting for your buy price?

I used to part own a book-making chain and as a consequence had to hold a personal book-making licence: had to do the CRB checks, inside leg measurement and all that stuff. About 35 shops.

I wasn't involved in running it. The way the did it was via offshore betting pools in Gibraltar. As we took money in on bets, we would immediately lay it off. We would also take the pricing from them, direction and size. The ideal book to hold on an event was that we made money whatever happened because we had laid everything off. What it came down to, was our volume and our margin. On some books we would take a bit of risk. For instance, we would do better with draws because typically punters don't bet on draws.

So the guy who ran it had someone whose job it was to maximise the margin. Example, if we took a bet in at 5/1, if we could get 6/1 elsewhere we would lay enough to cover the win at 5/1 and keep the difference. Result, immediate profit and no risk.

Anyway, it was amusing but I wasn't that involved. It failed in the end and we had to wind it up all square. The movement was to internet betting and we didn't have the scale to compete or the capital. Lesson learned..

Https://x.com/antonioresource/status/1806794702144049439?t=ikm6yMAT2VHO9BC4-dHlhA&s=19

DYOR

"Well if you want to define mental illness that would be a good starting point."

As I said.

On another BB there was was someone ranting and raving several times a day. All invective, all abuse and pretty crude. So asked, how much did you invest and when? It was £3k, like 10 years ago.

Such a waste, he had been at it for the whole of the intervening period. If he had put some effort into something productive, he might have made his £3k back elsewhere.

Anyway, different strokes...

If £3k is so important, you should not being investing at all, let alone in small early stage AIM listed companies.

DYOR