RE: 2025 Q114 May 2025 12:18
Regarding the large realisation with 40% IRR. You have to ask yourself, what are the effects of that realisation on fair value of the portfolio.
In order to do that, you have to think about how that asset was reflected in fair value prior to the realisation. Prior to the realisation, the asset would have been reflected with an assumed longer duration, higher absolute payout, but with a certain haircut for litigation risk (as the matter had not been resolved at that point).
So now the matter resolved in the quarter, which removes the haircut and shortens the case duration. Both of these would have been a positive effect on fair value under “Milestones and Other Model Impacts”.
At the same time, Burford was entitled to a significantly lower absolute dollar amount from that matter than in the previously modelled scenario. This would have been a negative effect on fair value under “Milestones and Other Model Impacts”.
So even though it’s not specifically stated in the slide deck, it’s not unexpected to see these effects largely cancel out.