The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The shorters gonna short, short, short, short , short
and the traders gonna sell, sell, sell, sell sell
But I'm just gonna raise my stake, stake, stake
Those buys keep on coming :-)
https://*********************/media/saietta-sed-fund-manager-series-gervais-williams-of-premier-miton-29-11-2022/id/16430
IMO - We are a long way from a placing at sub 2p.
I expect the perceived value of big existing holders and potential suitors is higher than 2p
I think there will be a deal to be made here as long as the board are not too greedy
Talking of Shore, I see that they bought shares at 10p on Friday
Regvarny - depends what you mean by waiting
I agree that everyone is waiting to see 'where from, how much etc' as we all know it will happen soon. But i don't think everyone is waiting to buy shares - we've had consisent decent buying all last week
For those that are confident t will not be a disounted placing - they will want to buy in before the news breaks while the SP is low
For those that are not so confident, perhaps they are waiting and content to miss out on a big rise (if the funding is not a discounted placing)
Time will tell
GLA
Ah, we have our "Mr shorter" or perhaps he's our "Mr see if i can get this any cheaper"
Josey - I think you are a bit dismissive. I think wat MMAG try and do here is more than just see what competitors are pricing is.
They probably could have raised at 10p or something similar in the last 4 weeks
The RNS states what 'could' happen
The share price drop, as ever, gets overdone. MMs derisk and drop as low as they can to pick up cheap shares
Rash PIs sell because they are worried they could lose it all
But, read half a donzen RNS before Fridays one and its obvious this is a going concern, and a good company
Buy the fear
Found this - interesting read
https://www.bloomreach.com/en/case-studies/how-music-magpie-prepares-for-a-cookieless-future-with-bloomreach-engagement
Simon - I am absolutley perplexed that the shares are still sitting at this value.
Some will see the share price performance - with their glass half empty wondering what they've misses and that there is a reason why the strong operational and growth has not translated to an increase in the share price.
I am as confident as I can be that there are no gremlins here - I no longer try to guess or theorise why the SP is not higher; I'm sticking with my own assessment and will hold as long as I need to hit my 50p target.
I hope to see more bullish holders on here in 2024 and look forward to sharing thoughts and opinions on their 2024/5 plans and performance.
I've dipped my toe in at sub 1.5p - I love the risk/reward here
The progress the company has made in the last 3-6 months has been really positive
They raised £7m barely less than 3 months ago at 17p a share - even when the need for additional liquidy in H1 2024 was very clear and obvious
They are also working with some big players who will have done their due dilligence - it feels like it's simply a short term liquidity issue - albeit a big one
I expect to see a lot of volatility in the coming weeks
TYLO - It is there job as market maker.
When you want to sell some shares - THEY BUY
When you want to buy some shares - THEY SELL
The are not doing much volume on either
Morning Tilly - totally with you chap
A few thoughts from me....
1. I do not think the share price is in as tough a situation as everyone else on here. Last autumn after the CH it was sub 2p for long periods. It is now close to double that and there has been a significant volume of buys between 3p and 6p over the last 6 weeks. The SP spiked on the news which has contributed to the retreat to 3p - had it not spiked I think we would be in the 4-5p range.
2. We should not be paranoid about shorts or let it dominate our foum IMO. But we should all be cognisant that there are some significant 'short' position out there right now in whatever form they take (Spread bet, CFD etc) and we've also seen a huge number of block sells which suggests that Trading accounts have disposed of most of their Hemo shares. I beleive this is important as a represents a genuine catalyst to the upside when these are closed and/or traders re-stock on Hemo shares.
3. Funding is the big topic of conversation in town and rightly so. I'm still hopeful that we'll see a different approach to the normal discounted placing. Hemo have been promoted to the next division and I expect the funding event to reflect that. I've revised down my thoughts on how much they may 'need'to raise - I don't think the CAR-T Phase 1 trial will be hugely expensive; Vlad took the decision to manufacture in house so many of the production costs are covered in BAU Opex (The people and the premisis) and I'm led to beleive that they have enough lentivirus manufactured to comfortabaly see them through the initial Phase. However, I would like to see Hemo raise a decent amount in order to take some of the liquidity pressure away which will allow them to focus on their product cadidates more and put them in a stronger psoition to cut commercial deals. (and allow them mofre resources to accelearte CBR developement)
4. I spend a lot less time on this forum now: I worry less about the likes of what Stu says. I uses to be a little paranoid that he knew more than me, but I no longer believe that. I no longer believe this forum is as influential as I once did - I've spoken to a number of professional investors and C-Suite and they have all dismissed these foums as nothing but rubbish from keyboard warriors and small time traders. Stu is clearly intelligent and and is quite good at fabricating his tactics on this forum - but its just a game. The RNS are not the cryptic puzzles he would lead you to believe and we are all guilty of attaching too much significance to each word in them.
I find that the RNS, good market research and a curious mind are the best tools for me and my investments
Good luck everyone - Still hope to meet some of the leg-ends on here at some point when we feel our loyalty and judgement has been vindicated. Perhaps good results at Phase 1 would represent a good time or a commercial deal?
What say you TillyWhizz, Saint, dHub, JHFH, Let it Roll, Chris123, Hulver, Haywain, Sp
Agree, the Cannacord move was baffling and I still don't know where thos shares have gone....
I actually reached out to the Takeover Panel to get some guidance on:
(1) The conditions of staying in 'offer period'
(2) Whilst in offer period, can they confirm if concessions are made and in what circumstances where a party may not declare a 1% holding.
Their response suggested they are happy to help answer and wanted my phone number and would pass on to a case officer
Josey - why and who would be buying and selling to do something to their average?
Please explain the significance of this and who would be doing that?
Not in my opinion...
1) Because they were sold for 11p - so who would be flogging them for sub 11p
2) They were not bought by Shore Capital ; and I do not see why any MM would want to take on that volume of shares without a buyer lined up
3) Over 4m shares traded the day after Cannacord sold their last 3m
4) Schroder have disposed of a few after Cannacord
Not long to go now until we see the full 12mth results for XP.
So far we know the revenue performance and have positive indicators on Gross Margin and EBITDA
XP posted a (£1.5m) loss in H1; this was £2.3m EBITDA less £2.9m depreication and a one off Fair Value adj relating to the final Boom settlement
I expect them to deliver £8-9m EBITDA in H2 - and would not expect depreciation to be any higher than £3.5m.
So i am expecting to see XP announce a profit of £2-£4m.
You would not know it from this forum, but lets not forget they did post a profit in FY22 as well
I expect Profits of c£7.5m in 2024/25 and c£11m in 2025/26 based on Organic Growth only
I beleive they may have acheived >£10m operating cashflow in 2023 and expect this to head towards £20m per annum by 2026
This is why I beleive they will be targeted at such a low share price.
Funnily enough Hulver i flagged that to JHFH last week :-)
Percy was a decent golfer, played off 2 (handicap) and was one of the best players at West Dean Golf Club.
One summer, a new crop of golfers joined the club; they were keen, practiced a lot and before long seemingly knew every inch of the course,
However, they were no match for Percy; he always seemed to beat them and it was not long until they made the games a little more interesting and put a few quid on each hole. OK, so he did lose the occasional match and would lose a few holes - but Percy knew that he always would come out on top. If all else failed he usually went 'double or quits' and would win on the 18th!
Things carried on this way for a while although the gap between the players was narrowing. One day though these golfers found a new club to play. This club was more professional; It had a number of county players and only let in new members if they met a tough set of criteria and passed a number of tough tests.
Percy did not care though, he just carried on playing his golf at West Dean
A year or so later Percy had a great run in the local county championship reaching the latter rounds where things were getting pretty serious. Everything was going so well for Percy. In the semi-final he was drawn against a familiar face - it was of his old foes who used to be a member of West Dean. Percy was rubbing his hands together with glee
The day arrived and boy!, did Percy take a pasting. He had underestimated his opponent who had made some new friends, mastered some new shots and had recently been awarded their county badge (a real milestone that permitted his opponent to start playing with and against the best in the counyy) . They'd put the usual wagers on and shortly after the turn (Hole 10 out of 18 for non golfers) and a much earlier than usual, Percy was well down so he doubled up but it did not go well this time....Percy doubled up on the 10th, 11th and 13th.
Percy felt sick - his oppenent was a no longer the novice, no longer a chance for Percy to make easy money.
Percy was walking to the 16th tee with 3 holes to play and three holes down, having won just 3 of the first 15 holes. Percy was staring at defeat and the prospect of handing over a wad of cash equivalent to about half of everything he'd ever won from his plucky opponent.
I will leave the story there for now - but here were Percy's 2 main options:
1. Aim to play out the last 3 holes with a focus on purely forcing an extra hole to progress to the final - i.e. no more side bets
2. Go again, agree a 'double or quits' on the 16th putting himself under intense pressure and risk doubling his losses
They are NOT sells at that price. Some sort of roll-over or bed and isa? Or short position closing. Or spreadex buying or selling