RE: Lithium Disrupter: Meet the Next “Big”, while it is still Small2 Apr 2022 14:06
"Mining 01/02/2022
IPO-Research: Cleantech Lithium
Lithium Disrupter: Meet the Next “Big”, while it is still Small
... From a historical perspective, the largest and most economically important continental Li brine occurrences are located in the Andes of Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia; these have been exploited commercially for decades, relying on conventional evaporative enrichment. We believe, however, that this status quo is about to be challenged over the coming decades as the widespread adaptation and dispersment of DLE technology among Andean semi-mature salars increases. The number of potential projects could, theoretically, supply much of the forecast demand growth expected from EV adoption over the coming decades.
Looking at the above peer comparisons (Tables 1 & 2), one would be tempted to believe that there is an enormous “wave”18 of potential Lithium supply about to engulf the market. To demonstrate how unlikely an event this is, we have enclosed Figures 22 & 23 generated by Orocobre back in 2019. It covers the last lithium boom from 2016 onwards demonstrating how, on average, only 20- 25% of slated capacity ever came into fruition. Moreover, this Bow-wave relationship can be observed in virtually any other commodity (e.g. copper, iron ore, zinc, etc.).
The key takeaway for the long-term investor, therefore, is to select companies that are more likely than their peers to enter production inside the investment timeframe (i.e. the period defined where demand exceeds supply). In this instance, we believe that global demand for lithium is, and will continue to be, driven by EV adoption; and, as a result, will likely be in shortfall for the ensuing decade (see section titled EV Sales driving underlying Lithium Demand).
The biggest difference between the last lithium construction boom in 2015/16, and the current period, is that although various DLE technologies have been utilised at Salar de Hombre Muerto among other sites for well over a decade; it’s general absence within the lithium industry, historically, was the result of sufficient availability of productive South American mature salars. This is no longer the case, and even more importantly, product quality/purity specifications for LCE have increased dramatically. It is now increasingly obvious that the long-term price assumptions (long-term consensus numbers are still averaging ~$15kt LCE) are too bearish. ..."
https://wp-ctlithium-2022.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/02/Cleantech-IPO-CLT.pdf
https://ctlithium.com/