Member Info for Hedgehog100

I think that for some traders, the following timescales apply:-
Short-term: minutes.
Medium-term: hours.
Long-term: a day!

But it all helps to make a market, and provide stock availability for others.

Levi,

I asked you:

"If RAB Capital forward sold placing shares, then could you please explain how they possess the full amount of placing shares, in addition to their pre-existing holdings?"

The fact that you can't explain that demonstrates that you are wrong, so it's rather sad that can't or won't recognise that.

Opinions are one thing, but facts should be sacred, and it is a fact that RAB Capital have not sold a single share in BRES: be it forward selling, after selling, or any other kind of selling.

11th Apr 2022 7:30 am RNS Placing
" ... · RAB Capital to invest £800,000 to become largest shareholder in Blencowe
· 16,000,000 new ordinary shares to be issued at 5p
· RAB Capital will hold 17,800,000 shares, being 10% of the enlarged share capital ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRES/placing-swkyuoc5sosiz10.html

19th Apr 2022 1:43 pm RNS Holding(s) in Company
" ... Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached
10.000000 0.000000 10.000000 17800000 ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRES/holdings-in-company-w9c71vsoibdlrzu.html

Levi,

If RAB Capital forward sold placing shares, then could you please explain how they possess the full amount of placing shares, in addition to their pre-existing holdings?

If they had forward sold any, then they would have a lower amount.

You're complaining about the falling share price, but maybe your relentless posting of serious false allegations, thereby unfairly undermining the credibility of the company, is a contributor.

What you're got to remember is that resource sector stocks can and often do recover from prior disappointments.

A good example in the O&G sector is SQZ (Serica Energy): a c. 7-year hundred-bagger, after a prior s.p. collapse, to its current market cap. of c. £905M.

And CNE (Cairn Energy) is another prior long-term hundred-bagger after a prior s.p. collapse.

I could give you many other examples.

The point being that prior disappointment can also provide a future opportunity: an overly-depressed s.p., with a reservoir of long term shareholders nursing significant losses, and a market that is tardy in waking up to the new positive reality.

I'm not necessarily suggesting that ZEN can do as well as SQZ & CNE (though in the long term who knows), but I think that a medium term 10-bagger here is quite possible if the company delivers upon its potential.

And TMOR executive director Roderick McIllree has topped up his holding by buying a million shares on the market:-

22nd Apr 2022 7:00 am RNS Director/PDMR Shareholding

"More Acquisitions plc (LSE: TMOR) has been notified yesterday that Roderick McIllree, Executive Director of the Company, purchased 1,000,000 Ordinary Shares of £0.01 each in the Company at 1.063 pence per share, on 21 April 2022.

Following the Director's purchase, Roderick McIllree owns 10,000,000 Ordinary Shares, representing 8.00% of the issued share capital. ..."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TMOR/directorpdmr-shareholding-zav6zacwn1bfnkw.html

You might think that with nine million shares already, he had enough, but apparently not.

Clearly neither director waited very long after TMOR's float before their purchases, which is quite unusual.

And it suggests that they think TMOR shares are an absolute bargain at current levels, which may not last long.

TMOR non-executive director Charles Goodfellow is obviously confident of creating significant value here, buying as he has nearly a million TMOR shares on the market, to nearly treble his holding:-

17th Mar 2022 4:25 pm RNS Director/PDMR Shareholding

"The Company has been notified that on 17 March 2022, Charles Goodfellow, Director of the Company, has purchased Ordinary Shares of £0.01 ("Shares") as follows:

Director Date ofpurchase Numberof Shares Purchaseprice TotalSharesheld % Issued share capital held followingpurchase

Charles Goodfellow 17 March 2022 454,545 1.10 p 954,545 0.76 ..."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TMOR/directorpdmr-shareholding-2fgl7f3q0dnlggj.html

1st Apr 2022 2:57 pm RNS Director/PDMR Shareholding

"The Company has been notified that on 1 April 2022, Charles Goodfellow, Director of the Company, has purchased Ordinary Shares of £0.01 ("Shares") as follows:

Director Date ofpurchase Numberof Shares Purchaseprice TotalSharesheld % Issued share capital held followingpurchase

Charles Goodfellow 1 April 2022 500,000 1.089 p 1,454,545 1.16 ..."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TMOR/directorpdmr-shareholding-56e8u630i2vqpz9.html

Kelsbells,

I think that you opening sentence is the ultimate in illogical thinking.

It's precisely because sufficient time has now elapsed, that we can now expect news at any point.

I never cease to be amazed about the poor analytical skills of some investors ... though their poor investing skills does at least create opportunities for those who know what they're doing.

ZEN share price:-
Tues. 1.12.20: 0.35p, unchanged on the day.
Thurs. 31.12.20: 1.325p, down 0.05p on the day.

Increase on the month: 278%.

So ZEN has done it before, and can do it again.

The current depressed share price is an opportunity.

TheRifelmans,

So instead of potentially making say 1,000% here long term, if there's a good RTO and growth story to follow that, we might only make 990%?!

Thank you for your advice that "You should never buy shares with a spread greater than 5%", which would surely rule out the large majority of penny shares, but I think we're old enough to make up our own minds.

I would add that the 'headline' spread here is actually 9.09%: i.e. 0.1p around the 1.1p mid price (1.05p bid, 1.15p offer).

Moreover, it is often possible to deal inside the quoted spread.

"... Pull that kind of heavyweight team together, with a mandate to “pursue available investment opportunities in the natural resources and energy sectors”, and more excitable private investors will inevitably look to join dots to guess the magnitude of business probably teed up to reverse in.

Commoditrade, Mentum’s previous incarnation, like Skiddaw, was another shell company floated on AIM by Andrew Regan, the colourful entrepreneur still best known for his unsuccessful attempt to gain control of the Cooperative Wholesale Society in 2009.

In 2006, he reversed a London Metal Exchange (LME) trading business into it, which made terrific money and commanded a market value of about £150 million until the credit crisis pulled the shutters down on financial markets.

Five short years later, the (still profitable) trading business, which also had $1 million cash and a further £1 million of LME shares was then sold to one Andrew Regan for £1, leaving a clean shell, then recycled to become Mentum.

Against the backdrop of an improving American economy, the FTSE 100 was driven 50.1 points higher to 6,621.1 by the latest glut of company results."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cast-list-including-son-of-abramovich-manages-to-create-drama-of-its-own-xdd7szs0qjm

TMOR's non-executive director Charles Goodfellow was previously a director of shell company Mentum (MEN), which became a terrific multibagger.

Consolidation adjusted, Mentum's lowest placing, a few months before its RTO suspension, was at 0.13p.

And MEN's RTO was then priced at 0.575p, i.e. 4.423 times as much.

Here's an interesting article on the excitement around that shell, including Charles Goodfellow's involvement:-

"Cast list including son of Abramovich manages to create drama of its own

Gary Parkinson
Thursday August 01 2013, 1.01am, The Times

There was a frisson of excitement on the bulletin boards of financial websites about a little-known AIM shell company with a lively cast of characters.

Mentum, valued at barely £2.3 million even after yesterday’s 80.9 per cent surge to 0.43p in heavy trading, issued no news.

It’s the personnel involved that sets it apart from the run-of-the-mill shell, which is no more than a company that has a stock market listing — most often, but not always, on AIM — but is devoid of a trading business.

They can be “clean” and unencumbered. Or they can be “dirty”, the rotting carcasses of collapsed businesses, routinely replete with duff management, torched shareholders and debts that drown any residue of cash still glued to the bottom.

One of Mentum’s three nonexecutive chairmen, Peter Moss, is a former Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, Donaldson Lufkin Jenrette and Commerzbank banker of some 30 years’ experience. Another, Charles Goodfellow, has been raising money for small and medium-sized companies listed in London for nearly as long.

The third is Shahed Mahmood, a founding shareholder and director of several AIM-quoted investing companies, including Skiddaw Capital, which became Crosby Capital Partners, which became Zoltav Resources backed by Arkadiy Abramovich, the son of Roman, the Chelsea billionaire.

In June, large new shareholders jumped on board Mentum. Jim Stewart is the chief executive of the Investment and Development Office of the Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah. Mike Douglas is the founder and owner of the SKA International Group, which supplies fuel to the US Army in Iraq and bills itself as “doing difficult jobs in difficult places”.

Both Mr Douglas and Mr Stewart own nearly 13.3 per cent of Mentum. So too, rumour-mongers suggested, does Ilyas Khan, the man who put Zoltav together, purportedly now pulling Mentum’s strings. He is not mentioned as an investor, but the suggestion was that he is behind Stanhill Special Situations Fund, ECK Partners and Bleachers Investments, each owning more than 4.4 per cent. ..."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cast-list-including-son-of-abramovich-manages-to-create-drama-of-its-own-xdd7szs0qjm

Shell company PNPL nearly doubled in the first half of April, despite not even announcing any news.

PNPL is currently 5.75p, market cap. £3.43M.

But unlike TMOR, PNPL is trading at multiples of its cash, which even at the end of last June was below £1M. (£930K.)

"Of course it didn't close higher Hedgehog because it kept getting pulled down every afternoon after climbing strongly in the morning."

Yes Levi, which is a standard pattern of short term traders.
I.e. to take profits later on in a day if there's been a good rise.

"Of course there was forward selling. It was as clear as the nose on your face."

By whom? Not by RAB Capital, because they hold all of the £800K. of placing shares they subscribed for.
If they'd forward sold any, then they would have less than that amount.

And anyone else forward selling would have had to rebuy in the market, which means that it would have been net neutral as regards buying-selling on the market.

But forward selling of a placing is typically done by placees, who know that they can easily rebuy the shares cheaper, en-masse, in the placing.

How would anyone know in advance that they would be able to do that in the BRES case on the market?

The combination of RAB Capital taking a large strategic stake at 5p, plus a 50% increase to JORC resource tonnes, could easily have sent the share price to over 6p, even without shorters needing to rebuy.

And where was all the rebuying on the market that would have needed to occur?

People were disappointed at the s.p. reaction, but I think that ultimately this was just a case of 'buy the expectation, sell the news', in bad market conditions where rises were generally being sold into across the board.

These useful postings from ADVFN, quoted here with thanks, may help to explain the low value being given to UOG's Egyptian oil revenues :-

An extract from a post by oilinvestorAl from a Pharos Energy (PHAR) thread:

oilinvestorAl 19 May '22 - 16:54 - 7417 of 7454 0 6 0
" ... Egypt is notorious for high depletion rates and low productivity index wells. In simple terms: you have to run in order to stand still. Even the new high rate producers will be down to less than 100 BOPD in short order. That why you always have to keep filling up the hopper. To make it work on any decent scale you can’t be messing about with 1-2 rigs! You need what is known as “factory drilling” for these marginal producers. Any suspension of drilling activities will be seen on the bottom line within a few months. Apache have managed to get this down to a T! ... "

And a reply to it yesterday from an ADVFN UOG thread:

Spangle93 30 May '22 - 11:00 - 5880 of 5882 0 2 0
"Hedgehog - totally concur with your reproduced post, except that in our case, I think the wells are reasonably high productivity index (PI), given the initial rates from vertical wells.
But the small pool sizes do mean higher depletion than global conventional field industry averages, and consequently higher production fall off rates. Perversely the high PI exacerbates this... if the initial flow rates were low, the fall off wouldn't be as severe!
The issue is that if this is well known about Eqyptian fields, and the financial T&C's are clear, how were UOG ever persuaded that it would be worth paying >$6/bbl reserves in the ground for a minority stake?"
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=42027720&from=5860

Levi,

In the week before the placing the BRES s.p. never closed at above 5.14p, and closed for the weekend at 5.1p.
The 5p placing was announced pre-opening on Monday 11th. April, and the s.p. closed that day at 5.25p.

I don't believe that there was any short selling of the placing that week before; all the £800K. of placing shares went exclusively to specialist mining investor RAB Capital, not to some bucket shop.

BRES's main 2022 trading range at that point had been the high 3s to the low 5s, so the likelihood is that some traders would be selling that week at above 5p anyway, considering the quite bearish stock market conditions.

People should appreciate that getting a quality investor like RAB on board, especially as the largest shareholder, can be transformative for how a junior mining sector stock is viewed, but investors like RAB know that, so are notorious for cutting a great deal for themselves.

There's no guarantee that RAB would have been willing to invest after the JORC news at a higher s.p., in which case a great opportunity could have been lost.

These small trades have previously been a precursor to a good rise.

Thanks to Goodbody for this useful post in mid January:

Goodbody Price: 3.95 No Opinion RE: 3p 15 Jan '22

"What’s more interesting is these rapid fire small buys all with the same time stamp. Feels like someone’s warming up a trading bot to accumulate. Could be the first step to funds stepping in.

Maybe a seller, maybe a shorter; whichever, someone else is buying from them looking for a decent profit when this flies. If it’s a shorter, good luck, these MMs don’t let people in at these levels. They could get seriously squeezed. If a seller, they will complete soon if not already otherwise they will need to put a TR1 out as they have reached that kind of size trade"

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=BRES&share=Blencowe-Resou&page=21

22nd Feb 2022 7:00 am RNS Acquisition of Nickel Sulphide Project in Uganda
" ... The structure of the transaction means we are acquiring a nickel discovery with historic spend of US$15 million for just $1.5 million in deferred share consideration, instead ensuring our cash is deployed in advancing the asset and unlocking incremental value. ...
The consideration shares will be priced at the time the decision is made to progress the Earn-In through to the next milestone, with exploration results meriting further continuation. On that basis, the Company believes it will mitigate shareholder dilution as any future issue of consideration shares will reflect the success achieved from exploration at the Project. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRES/acquisition-of-nickel-sulphide-project-in-uganda-c5ofwihpam12d5a.html

TheSwan,

The fact that the shares concerned aren't being issued now, but in the future, was my main point.

If/when the final tranche of shares is issued, BRES's market cap. could potentially be £100M., making a mockery of the '25% dilution' claim.

And moreover, that US$1.5M. is a 90% discount to the historic spend of US$15M. on the project.

P.S. Computer909 couldn't even get the $1.5M. figure right, claiming it was $1.75M., so apologies for quoting it without double-checking.
Memo to myself: never trust any figure from someone who seems to habitually post false info.

31st May 2022 7:00 am EQS Cycling Event Tracking Contract with NTT

... About OTAQ

OTAQ is a highly innovative marine technology company focused on the marine aquaculture, offshore energy, renewables and oceanographic research sectors. It operates in four worldwide locations: Lancaster, Aberdeen and Ulverston in the UK and Puerto Montt in Chile.

OTAQ's marine technology portfolio includes a market-leading intelligent acoustic deterrent system, Sealfence, designed to protect marine-based aquaculture sites from predation, with multiple systems deployed in Scotland, Chile and Finland.

The Company's Oceansense leak detection systems have a global reputation as the industry standard solution and have been deployed successfully on hundreds of jobs. OTAQ's Dragonfish laser measurement system is fast becoming recognised as one of the most accurate underwater precision laser measurement systems available. OTAQ also has significant experience in the design and manufacture of underwater connectors, penetrators and communication systems.

It seeks to develop and continuously improve its products using its specialist mechanical, electronic and software engineers with decades of experience in bringing underwater technology products to market. Concurrently, OTAQ seeks to expand its technology portfolio through acquisitive growth, with the aim of further expanding its aquaculture and offshore product offering.

OTAQ is proud to be fully ISO 9001:2015 accredited through DNV-GL. ISO 9001 is an internationally recognised quality management system and demonstrates OTAQ's commitment to consistency, continual improvement and customer satisfaction. The certification also demonstrates its ability to consistently deliver products and services to market whilst meeting statutory and regulatory requirements by applying an effective quality management system.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OTAQ/cycling-event-tracking-contract-with-ntt-trdf1kh9rf23n1h.html

31st May 2022 7:00 am EQS Cycling Event Tracking Contract with NTT

OTAQ, the marine technology products and solutions group for the global aquaculture, offshore energy and the sport and leisure industries, announces the continuation of its relationship with NTT Ltd following the award of a contract to deliver OTAQ’s bespoke precision tracking devices for a major cycling event in France. NTT Ltd is part of a £70bn revenue technology communications group.

The OTAQ trackers will be used to precisely monitor the location of the in-race vehicles and other support vehicles used by the race organiser.

The tracker technology was initially acquired through the acquisition of ROS Technology by OTAQ in November 2020, and was fully commercialised in 2021 through the development of prototypes and the completion of successful client field trials, culminating in the delivery of over 500 trackers for a major motorcycling event, also in association with NTT. OTAQ is continuing its product development programme to broaden the applications for this technology. The Board sees considerable market opportunities for OTAQ's tracking technology, not only in the sports events sector but also in other industries where the monitoring and management of mobile assets can be critical.

Phil Newby, Chief Executive at OTAQ, commented: “Competitive sport is a fantastic proving ground for our technology to demonstrate its tolerance and durability. This commercial contract follows extensive trials across differing environments and endorses our approach to developing the product suite for different applications and markets using our core technology. We look forward to continuing our relationship with NTT in the future.”

Tim Wade, Vice-President, Advance Technology Group at NTT, added: “OTAQ’s tracking device gives us very high precision tracking of assets without the need for costly additional infrastructure compared to the alternatives. Accuracy is key in competitive environments where precision has a significant bearing on both the quality of the competition and its safety.”

Contacts:

OTAQ PLC
Via Walbrook
Alex Hambro, Non-Executive Chairman
Phil Newby, Chief Executive Officer
Matt Enright, Chief Financial Officer

Dowgate Capital Ltd (Broker & Adviser)
020 3903 7715
David Poutney/James Serjeant
Nicholas Chambers/Russell Cook

Walbrook PR Ltd
Tel: 020 7933 8780 or Otaq@walbrookpr.com
Tom Cooper/Nick Rome
0797 122 1972 or 07748 325 236 ...

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OTAQ/cycling-event-tracking-contract-with-ntt-trdf1kh9rf23n1h.html

Chalice Mining shows the potential of a successful nickel sulphide project, where a huge rise started with its nickel drilling program.

ASX-listed Chalice Mining (CHN) 100-bagged, and has a current market cap. of AU$2.32 billion:
https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/chn

"THE OPPORTUNITY

The Julimar Project was stacked in early 2018 as part of Chalice's global search for high-potential nickel sulphide exploration opportunities.

Chalice discovered the Gonneville deposit in the very first drill hole at the project in March 2020, intersecting shallow high-grade PGE-nickel-copper-cobalt-gold sulphide mineralisation. Gonneville is located on private farmland at the southern end of the interpreted >26km long Julimar Complex.

The significant Gonneville discovery has defined the new West Yilgarn Ni-Cu-PGE Province, an almost entirely unexplored mineral province which is interpreted to extend for ~1,200km along the western margin of the Yilgarn Craton. Chalice holds an unrivalled >8,000km2 land position in this exciting new area and is leveraging its competitive ‘first mover’ advantage."

https://chalicemining.com/project/julimar-nickel-copper-pge-project#:~:text=Chalice%20discovered%20the%20Gonneville%20deposit,interpreted%20%3E26km%20long%20Julimar%20Complex.