Member Info for HeadInTheSand

BV, I have specifically stated that those positive about ANGS are obviously not all shills.

As to the rest of your post, some here think it is far FAR more relevant to discuss what it is actually going to take to get the ANGS SP moving upwards. That would seem to be a whole lot more worthwhile than just yelling playground-level insults at people who don't see it currently appropriate (given the depressing state of the SP) to claim that ANGS is the most brilliant investment opportunity ever.

However and by all means feel entirely free to maintain your unwavering policy of screaming childish insults, if that's what you think is for the best and is most helpful.

I think further clarity is needed re debt repayment over the next couple of months - or news that ANGS has secured that longer-term £20m replacement financing package.

The publicly available facts remain that ANGS has to pay back at least £7.5 million by Sept 30th (£4.2m of capital on the senior loan as revealed in Note 10 to the HY accounts, plus £3.3m inc 6 months of interest on the first £3m junior loan as per the RNS of Jun 30th).

We know how much cash ANGS had as of Mar 31st (£200k plus the just arrived £3m first junior loan). We know that it's taken a further £6m bridging loan since... but had to pay out £3.5m against the missed hedges as per the RNS of Jul 14th. And of course since the HY, it's so far had four months and counting of gas revenues nett of derivative settlement.

Given that ANGS's cash position was surprisingly low as of the HY end (just £200k prior to the £3m injection from that first junior loan - even after 6 months of pre-sidetrack poduction from SFBY), it looks like general cash burn remains quite high. So clarity would be much welcomed. Or news of the £20m package being secured. Or further extension on the existing debts.

At 3 million therms of production a month and what with the current hedge arrangements, winter gas pricing would need to be £1.535p per therm to generate that £3 million a month of revenue.

Not impossible, but the highest forthcoming winter pricing (Feb 24) is currently at £1.296p.

Not understanding the difference between bid and offer... it's actually genuinely breath-taking to see how frighteningly ill-informed some very clearly are.

Mind you, AIM companies need a steady supply of such in order to keep themselves going.

A deadline? Yes ANGS does. Sept 30th.

Robday, a couple of things.

I personally believe that talking about the company is far more relevant than sl*gging off other posters, but each to his/her own, I suppose.

I suspect you (unknowingly?) have fallen into viewing opinions voiced here with a sort of football fan mentality and thus believe that you're almost duty-bound to slate those expressing warier opinions because you think in so doing, you're defending your investment in some strange way?

Presumably you can only have bought into ANGS after Xmas 22? Either that, or you've topped up plenty since - because following the Dec 18th dilution, that'd be the only way you could still hold the same percentage of ANGS shares?

I would wonder what is making you so angry, but suspect the answer is obvious. I would suggest that you're choosing entirely the wrong targets for your ire and insults, but again, entirely up to you..

RobDay, perhaps you'd like to offer an opinion why the market values what you believe to be a fantastic prospect at sub 0.8p per share? And why the SP is down 80% since announcement of the successful sidetrack in mid April?

Alternatively, if those are questions - and eminently reasonable, pure fact-based ones - that you'd rather avoid or ignore, then perhaps carrying on with your trite insults is indeed your best strategy. A lot easier for the likes of you than facing up to inconvenient truths, I suspect...

Sageman, it's tight at the moment.

As revealed in the HY accounts, there's £4.2 million of capital to pay back by end Sep on the senior (originally £12m) loan. Presumably some interest to pay back on this as well. Then there's £3.3 million (inc interest) to pay back by end Sep on the already extended first junior £3m loan. Currently there'd also be £6.3 million (inc interest) to pay back at the self-same time on the second junior £6m loan - though that latter may be extendable by a further three months to end Dec at a cost of an additional £300k of interest.

So at least £7.5 million of debt repayment to find in the next 7 weeks... and possibly another £6.3 million on top of that. Those sorts of imminent liabilities are going to put a major league crimp in anyone's cashflow.

Which is exactly why the $25m/£20m replacement financing package is so crucial for the company. Okay, so the terms are still Wonga-esque (though fractionally less expensive than current debt)... but the term period (18 months) and the fact that it'd apparently be a bullet loan (i.e. end of term balloon payment) would give ANGS the time/breathing room it needs to generate enough revenues to pay it back.

The same IQs which ANGS used to categorically assure that the sidetrack would take a maximum of six weeks? Now there's a source of info to be relied upon...

As to ANGS's "bright future"... that's certainly not something the market's buying into at the moment, that's for sure.

Do you have an opinion on why the SP is in the toilet, BV? Or is that one of the several facts you'd rather pretend didn't exist?

For the record, I'm not looking to talk the ANGS SP down - I'm well aware that it's the market which decides what value to ascribe to ANGS, not some poster on a share discussion BB.

What I (and a few others) try to do is to come up with evidence-justified reasons to explain the current reality of things. The question " Why is the SP at its current level?" seems to me to be the most important one of all and the one that all investors or potential investors should be asking themselves and trying to understand, in order to better inform their future decisions.

This is very different from what the more clueless and/or more disingenuous do here. They all quite deliberately ignore the above question (which is frankly bizarre behaviour - ignoring current reality never works out well) . Instead they spend their time yelling about where the ANGS SP should be, in their opinion (and even sometimes why it should be there).

However, they never address the matter of why it's very clearly not there and why the market as a whole equally very clearly disagrees with them.

Well I certainly won't deny that winter's coming.

To look at Tony C's points in order:-

1) The refinancing of £25 million debt (due any time)

It's actually £20 million that's being sought. I've got this one down as a "must happen"

2) News on permanent flow line and gas generator install (end August)

Largely irrelevant as neither will affect production rates/revenue generation in any meaningful way.

3) Revised revenue figures, including first full quarter with third well (due end of quarter)

Irrelevant and already priced in. ANGS's production rates are already known at 3 million therms a month.

4) Winters coming (gas prices predicted to leap higher)

Forward Winter 23 prices are currently around the £1.25 mark, but front months are significantly lower, so it's unlikely that such prices will "leap". For example, two weeks ago, Oct futures pricing was 98p. Today it's 83p. Similarly two weeks ago, Dec futures pricing was 142p. Today it's 124p. And after winter comes spring (amazingly).

5) Storage agreement announced

Firmly in the wishful thinking category.

6) Known 300 million Therms to extract

Irrelevant. Already known and priced in.

7) Strong possibility of takeover

Also firmly in the wishful thinking category.

We have been here before, I agree. ANGS is in sore need of a refinancing rescue package. I have #1 down above as the only item of real relevance - but if you read the terms of this prospective package, it's not exactly easy to swallow,. However, beggars can't be choosers - and I see it as very much necessary.

Actually, the market is behaving completely logically, because it's not suffering from confirmation bias.

None of the 7 things listed by Tony_Currie are confirmed. Not many are even that likely - in fact a couple are purely wishful thinking.

Of course the alternative is that those endlessly assuring riches and re-rates just around the corner (as they have beeen doing for many months in the face of an ever-dropping SP) are in fact far smarter than the market, which will wake up one day to the amazing potential of ANGS. I wonder how likely that is?

There are a couple of leading candidates for the title.

Firstly, any of the cheerleaders with their continuous promises of jam tomorrow riches being just around the corner. They've been singing the same song for over 4 years now, ever since the Saltfleetby acquisition on Jun 19th 2019, when the SP reached 4p. It's never got anywhere near those levels since and is currently 80% down from that level.

That SP is something the heavenly choir does its best to ignore, since it evidences the cold, hard and very obvious fact that those expressing a more wary opinion of ANGS have to date been proven bang on right.

However, I'd give the title to the company's executive dream team and especially George Porky Pie Lucan. Who can forget the bucketloads of publicly issued statements, all of which categorically turned out to bear literally no resemblance to the truth?

To pick just a couple of personal faves from the litany of BS spouted by the company over the last 4 years...

" At this stage the Directors are confident that reconnection at commercial rates is possible within the £2.5 million budget and advised timescale of completing work between May and August 2020."

RNS 19/06/19.

(The £2.5 million referred to was given to ANGS at time of acquisition. Shortly afterwards they found they needed to borrow £12m at credit card rates).

"We would be surprised and disappointed if the drilling part of the programme exceeded 28 days and the entire programme involved more than 7-10 days either side. On behalf of the Board, we have never heard or seen of any internal document which suggested we were planning for a 16 week side-track at Saltfleetby and we would challenge the poster to produce it. For that matter I haven’t heard of a drilling programme anywhere to these depths which could conceivably take 16 weeks – except perhaps on Mars, which is possibly where your poster hails from."

Answer to Investor Question 23/09/21

(The internal document referred to was ANGS's own planning permission as submitted into Lincs CC which stated "up to 16 weeks". As we now know, the sidetrack took going on 6 months - and cost £millions more than were assured).

So, the company's directors would definitely deserve the title of "biggest laughing stock"...

...except it's not in the least bit funny for anybody who's invested based on any of their publicly made statements, predictions, promises and assurances.

OP, all quite correct... BUT given that ANGS has a tricky cash flow situation to navigate through even with the doubling of production that the sidetrack eventually delivered, IMO it's crystal clear that the company would have defaulted on its liabilities without said production-doubling sidetrack.

Thay makes it a success, albeit a deeply pyrrhic one.

To be fair, you have to consider the sidetrack as a success. Why?

Because even though it took 5 times longer (literally) than GL insisted it would and even though it cost many millions more than the company assured it would, the fact is that it has doubled production levels.

But way WAY more importantly than that... imagine if it had failed? Especially with what we know now about ANGS's short-term cashflow vs debt issues. The sidetrack has literally kept ANGS in business. That has to be considered a success against the alternative scenario.

Regardless, BP is quite correct about facing up to realities, especially when those realities are so easy to see. Even with that doubled production, the SP is down 57.5% from the date of the sidetrack news.

So either the cheerleaders here are perceptive geniuses and it's the market as a whole that is just plain thick. Or the market is in fact bang on right in terms of how it currently values ANGS and therefore something meaningful has to change (gas prices, maybe?) or there needs to be some significant and concrete new news (longer-term replacement financing, maybe?).

"I'm not afraid of an eu army...." So... we're liable to get invaded by Europe, are we?

Nurse, double the meds for ScarletVixen, please.

I don't think the company's going pop for one second.

However, the self-evident cold hard reality is that something needs to change to get the SP moving upwards. The market knows all about the sidetrack which, when combined with other revelations about cashflow, did not prevent a 50% drop in the SP since its success was announced.

Even the most ardent ANGS cheerleader would have to acknowledge that new news must be needed. Otherwise... what changes?

For all the latest jam tomorrow musings about possible gas storage or carbon capture, they're just distant future possibles, born out of vaguely desperate hope rather than anything else. IMV the most likely thing in the short term to arrest and reverse the ANGS SP decline is for the company to secure the replacement 18 month £20 million facility. That would really help it and change the short- to mid-term picture.

Alternatively (as he seems to be obsessed with history), you could listen to Robday, this BB's latest version of little orphan Annie, belting out the "Tomorrow" song at the top of his little lungs and trying his level best to ignore all the factual evidence....

robday

Posted in ANGS

2 Apr 2023

My bet is we should see 4p tomorrow on double flow rate news

robday

Posted in ANGS

19 Apr 2023

There will be a time when we all look back and wish we got more shares when the share price dropped back to the 1.6p range

robday

Posted in ANGS

14 May 2023

... and at a cost price of 1.5p this is an absolute bargain and I feel 3p without all the talk of buyout is very easily achievable on these daily results

Robday, you're quite correct in pointing out that the sidetrack was a success, in that it delivered what it was intended to, a doubling of daily production output. Okay, it was very late (George is on public record absolutely insisting it'd only take 6 weeks... now there's a laugh) and cost far more than it was meant to... but still, it was successful.

Unfortunately, much to everyone's surprise (including mine), it turned out not to be "all about the sidetrack". Since its success was announced in mid-April this year, the share price has lost more than 50% of its value (with a primary reason for that fall seeming to be cashflow/short-term debt related).

You talk about "tail winds" and "massive opportunities to buy at the bottom" (which is the exact same message you've been pumping for months). Sadly, the incontrovertible evidence of the SP's direction during all that cheerleading indicates that the wind has been in the exact opposite direction and that the bottom has not necessarily been reached yet.

I find it a tad tragic that, having been forced to recognise that the much-promoted sidetrack has done nothing for the share price, you're now having to thump the tub about gas storage and carbon capture. How very "jam tomorrow"... yet again.

Robday, it is surprising that you think anyone on a discussion board can have any effect on a company in any direction. You should really have known this from taking a look at how your own attempts to talk the company up have fared. Not quite the "5p by Xmas 2022" being assured by the cheerleaders mid last year.

No, the only party responsible for "disrupting" ANGS is the company itself.