Member Info for HeadInTheSand

You have to admire Ocebot's persistence. Thanking "love for hire" Malcy for his positive comment (as everyone knows, he's a mere rent-a-mouth, who will gush whatever anyone pays him to gush). And then thanking ANGS's own PR company, Flagstaff, for posting this piece of utter irrelevance. .. priceless.

Mind you, two pieces of puff from Flagstaff in 24 hours... that's more than they've done in the last six months. Probably because there's been literally nothing that's been positively spinnable over that period - but as they've just re-realised, if there's no actual good news, one can always employ the likes of Malcy to make some up.

Given that the SP remains at a 52 week low (fact), one wonders what these points of delivery which will cause an upward movement will actually be?

The market already knows what SFBY is capable of outputting. That's 90-95k therms a day (okay so over the recent couple of weeks, daily production has been substantially below that, but hopefully the very recently fixed compressor will get things back to those levels).

The market already knows what the hedge commitments are. Those aren't going to change.

The price of gas maybe? Well, it's softening, with winter pricing hardly setting the world on fire.

Nope, it's got to be all about debt, liabilities, cashflow and replacement financing, That's the only thing left that could make a positive difference in the short- to mid-term. Everything else is - as Donald Rumsfeld might have put it - pretty much already a known known.

Well, at least we got an explanation (presumably true, but this is ANGS after all - and sadly, not everything it states in RNSes turns out to be true) for the recent falls in average daily production levels. It'll be interesting to see if production volumes now get back to the 90-95k therms per day.

More (though only very mildly) interesting is why anyone genuine is continuing to wave pompoms for this at least to date unrelenting fiasco.

For one, it can make no difference to any outcome and secondly, let's face it, those having shall we say a less than glowingly positive outlook on CTAG have (again to date, at least) got all the actual real-world facts on their side.

I'm personally predicting yet another cankick - and one not necessarily even announced this week. However, despite the literal mountains of hard historic evidence supporting that prediction, it is within the bounds of possibility (just) that it's wrong.

Four days to go till the next instalment in this apparently never-ending B grade soap opera...

BV as I have said many times, I (thankfully) own no ANGS shares at this time.

Re following advice, I hope for your sake that you've not been following your own, because you've been screaming "Amazing buy!" for too many months to remember... certainly that was your monotone cheerleaders' litany all the way from 2.7p downwards.

Although if your previous statements are to be believed (admittedly always a real reach with anything you post), you have been, hence you're underwater even if averaging down. Which probably explains your increasing and (as always) irrational feverishness trying to polish the unpolishable.

Spot on, OBZ. Like most AIM pipedream-spinning stocks, this share is blindingly obviously one to only consider short-term trading (as its entire history helpfully demonstrates - it's the poster child antithesis of a long-term value-generative hold).

However and as you well know, to do that and have the opportunity of making a worthwhile return, one does need three things:-

a) the proverbial balls of steel, to one extent or another

b) the capacity to literally constantly monitor to get one's timing exactly right

c) a completely dispassionate, objective and thus realistic outlook on the stock.

Why didn't they wait until they'd secured new global refinancing? You know the answers, OP.

The first "junior" short-term Wonga loan had already been extended to its allowable maximum timescale and thus £3.4 million needed repaying by today. ANGS obviously didn't have that amount of spare cash available, so as you say, instead effectively carried out yet another and very low cost private placing with those holding literally all the cards.

That new global refinancing does seem to be a whole lot trickier to secure than ANGS has implied...

Sadly only amounting to c. £13k each. That's typical short-term swing trader volume, so not meaningful.

Well... it is good news, if only because it and the resulting dilution is better than defaulting. As it strongly hints in today's RNS, ANGS obviously doesn't have the cash available to pay off the first of the junior loans (£3.4m inc interest and fees), which was falling due in just two days' time (so a tad lastminute.com as usual).

Unsurprisingly and no doubt for the same lack of cash reasons, they've also extended the 2nd £6m junior loan by another 3 months (as allowed by initial terms, but at a cost of a further £300k). That new January date is now going to coincide with PF's next instalment (£1m?) falling due.

It certainly looks like ANGS couldn't get any global refinancing package done in time, so it's still having to bolster required liability-servicing cash flow by further xtending Wonga rate borrowing.

Strange, that. Listen to the cheerleaders here and you'd have thought that multiple lenders would be fighting to advance funding to such a hot prospect, and that a refinancing deal would be pretty much instantly securable, no? Apparently not...

As usual, BV you're making things up. You have no idea what shares I hold in any company.

Apart that is from ANGS, but that's solely because I have chosen to reveal that although I have owned shares in the past, I currently do not. I've also chosen to give my own evidence-based reasons as to why I currently don't...and the reality of the SP direction over the last many months strongly seems to support my decision not to get back in.

You really could do with garnering yourself even a slight knowledge of facts, rather than ignoring them completely in favour of your self-created myths, but again, each to his or her own.

That's genuinely made me laugh. BV has outdone himself in stupidity this time in his attempt to polish the unpolishable.

No such thing as lost production? Well, the lateness of both production start and the sidetrack left ANGS with a nasty £3.4 millions worth of debt that needed paying to Mercuria, courtesy of the hedge arrangements (remember? That debt they promised would be covered off by the Xmas £7 million megaplacing... but then wasn't, so ANGS had to take out a further £9 million of short-term Wonga loans to cover).

Okay so unproductive gas remains in the ground, that's a given. But when a company desperately needs to generate sufficient revenues to meet its looming various liabilities, to suggest it's in some bizarre way favourable to have slumps in production rates is in some way beneficial is the height of insanity. Either that or an all too typically cackhanded attempt to put a positive spin on the worrying.

Comedy gold.

BV, as stated numerous times before, I have no desire whatsoever to see ANGS fail.

However, I also see no point in pretending (and trying to convince others) that reality doesn't matter. However, reality very clearly shows that on any measure anyone would choose to use, to date ANGS cannot be considered as any sort of success, despite your constant and frenetic cheerleading to the contrary.

Need I point you towards the share price graph? Those retaining even the slightest vestige of any objectivity will have worked out the reasons for that inexorable downward trend, but that's something you're unwilling and/or incapable of doing.

Presumably because it doesn't mesh with your simple-minded football fan mentality of endlessly and blindly praising the company to the stars as a fabulous investment opportunity, despite all the hard, cold and undeniable facts indicating the exact reverse.

It takes all sorts, I suppose...

BV, what an odd post. A couple of things.

I wasn't posting an excuse - and don't see what there is to excuse. My post was a pure statement of facts - you know, those things you're violently allergic to acknowledging.

You say "I don't ramp but support the company that I invest in through good or bad times." Strange, since according to your multiple posts over the last many months, there simply haven't been any "bad times".

Finally ANGS is a choice for investment or not, and not a football team (I say that because you seem to have adopted a fanatical footie fan mentality on the company). So to normal-thinking peop[le, supporting a company would involve posting "I think ANGS is a good investment because (add facts here)". It does not involve posting "ANGS is the best thing since sliced bread and anyone saying different is a complete ****." That's just infantile.

Finally, I only post on companies that interest me and whereas I may discuss my personal position on those with people I have a level of respect for because they can add something to any debate, that for brutally obvious reasons wouldn't include yourself.

BV you have been relentlessly pumping ANGS for months and months with no justification despite all the easily verified evidence to the contrary, with almost zero posts on any other company.

Fair enough, if that's what floats your boat, I suppose. However, it remains an immediately verifiable fact that the ANGS SP has fallen by over 75% over the last year.

So as to what that makes you, together with anyone unfortunate enough to have listened to and acted upon your non-stop and substance-free blinkered cheerleading? Well, people can come up with their own most apt descriptions.

....aaaand there it is. BV's kneejerk and undeviating refusal to address very easily auditable facts.

Do whatever you like... but I doubt that ignoring reality is a particularly smart approach to take.

Howey, hi there. For what it's worth, most people and yes, even myself included) expected at least some sort of a re-rate following news of an entirely successful (i.e. production doubling) sidetrack, even if that was considerably late and considerably over budget.

In hindsight (always an exact science, of course), what's slammed the ANGS SP into reverse gear are indeed the funding issues you mention. Bear in mid that the sidetrack's success got announced in May... but then at the end of June, the HY report revealed that ANGS had next to no cash left as of Mar 31st (c. £200k, but topped up last minute with the rapidly arranged first £3m Wonga short-term loan) and that, despite assurances given when it carried out the XMas 22 £7m megaplacing, it STILL hadn't paid off the c. £3.4 million missed hedge shortfall (hence the equally rapidly arranged second £6m Wonga short-term loan).

Such info finally coming to light would put the kybosh on any company's SP, and especially when considered against other already incurred debts/liabilities needing repaying (ongoing staged capital plus interest payments on the remainder of the original £12m loan and ongoing staged payments to PF for the acquisition).

Keep your fingers crossed for a total refinancing package from some party or other - even though that too will be very costly, that might change things for the better by giving ANGS more time in which to produce gas and thus generate revenue.

What's not to like? The significant assumptions that Singhie's plugged into his spreadsheet, that's what.

If you look back at Singhie's numerous previous future SP predictions, you'll see that he keeps having to adjust them downwards as time goes by and/or previously undisclosed info finally sees the light of day.

For example, here's what his spreadsheet spat out just 4 months ago...

Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan

Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)

Nov-23 2.4683

Dec-23 2.9449

Jan-24 3.3318

Feb-24 3.7423

Mar-24 4.1258

Apr-24 4.4572

May-24 4.5004

Jun-24 4.5349

Sure... but why is this news?

ANGS is producing somewhere between 2.7 and 2.85 million therms a month and has been since May/Jun. No monthly hedged volume has ever been near that quantity.

The issue is not whether ANGS can meet its hedge commitments. The issue is, given the gating factor that ANGS has on its generatable revenues courtesy of the ongoing hedge commitments, can it meet its other short-term debts and liabilities?

As of right now, and as per its own RNSes on the subject, ANGS has to shell out £9.6 million to pay off the two junior loans by the end of this month, unless it extends the second of those (the £6m one, which it announced it could do by a further 3 months at an additional cost of £300k), or unless it gets new permission to extend both, or unless it gets some sort of replacement financing deal sorted out within the next 11 days.

Unfortunately, any further delays and only some will know it's codswallop.

You can bet your last dollar that for a very small selection of reasons (and I can think of only two), there will still be some here posting about riches still being just around the next corner (honest!) with Amit and CTAG.

But hey, it's an allegedly free world, so whatever floats people's particular boats...

BV, you've never given a reasonable answer period.