Member Info for Hazzy01

Hi Supercharger

Interesting detail from RNS re the share placing - this is the Management's assumptions regarding passenger and revenues over the next 18 months. The whole RNS is quite wordy but definitely worth a read.

(a) between September 2021 and February 2022, there will be a gradual resumption of passenger travel, with an average of 38,000 passengers per month, compared to pre-COVID-19 levels of 159,000 in the corresponding period in FY20;

(b) the phased recovery will continue, with an average of 107,000 passengers per month at London Southend Airport during FY23 and passenger numbers at pre-COVID-19 average run rate by April 2023, compared to pre-COVID-19 levels of 178,000 for the full year FY20;

(c) as a result of the Aviation-related assumptions discussed above, for the period March 2021 to February 2022, Stobart Aviation revenues will be 53 per cent. of the corresponding period in FY20; and

(d) within Stobart Energy, there will be no further lockdowns due to COVID-19 that would impact the construction and recycling sectors.

I was referring to the annual reports and the interim reports where the EBITDA was referenced by Division

Hi Supercharger - No I haven't been to London Southend Airport.

I don't dispute any of the points you make as you are obviously much closer to it and have seen it at first hand.
My point was that although the airport will ultimately be a success it will not turn round quickly enough for Esken and it will be a great infrastructure asset for someone else in time.

As someone else highlighted the airport hasn't made money in the last five years and not even when it had 2.1 million passengers. The scary thing was seeing the financials which highlighted that the airport lost less money during lockdown than it did when it was doing the passenger numbers. It will never make money until it goes past a critical mass point which is north of 2.1 million passengers and it isn't going to recover to those levels this year.

I'm guessing if the warehousing / logistics part is more developed and operating well then it brings the break even passenger numbers down but still will be out of reach this year.

I think the telling point for me was that they had to hock up the crown jewels (in their view) which says that they couldn't get any firm bidders for the energy business. They are now in the worst position that Carlyle control the agenda if Esken runs out of cash again and they can decide to take ever bigger chunks of the core asset and wealth of the company.

I agree with Gerry's point that Covid has been an absolute perfect storm for the company and most shareholder value has been destroyed by events completely outside their control.

In a financial crisis is money / wealth actually lost ? ........ or does it just transfer from one set of people to another. In this case from existing shareholders to Carlyle.

The next few months will be interesting - as a sub note it looks like the capital raise only achieved £35 million but the plan was to raise £40 million. That £5 million shortfall means a bit less time for things to turn round.

I've been following this bulletin board for some time and have enjoyed the contrasts of the highly bullish versus the better informed.

Gerry65 - I find your posts very insightful and like how you don't judge the opposing view - but tease out the logic

I am surprised you are so positive when existing shareholders are massively diluted by the share placings and the "crown jewel" is now 30% hocked up to Carlyle. It is right that the company should survive in the short term but whether they will stay in the game long enough to see any benefit from Southend Airport is very dubious. The airport probably does have a bright future but it won't be Esken shareholders who benefit.