Member Info for havealot

Stoater
Further to your question below. Many papers and references on this aspect but viral load is obviously a significant variable here.

'PCR-based test
Detection of SARS-CoV-2 by nasal swab over six weeks in patients who experienced mild to moderate illness RT-PCR is the most accurate diagnostic test. It typically has high sensitivity and specificity in a laboratory setting: however, in one study sensitivity dropped to 66–88% clinically. In one study sensitivity was highest at week one (100%), followed by 89.3%, 66.1%, 32.1%, 5.4% and zero by week six.'(see Wikipedia for reference and details).
Yet government specification for rapid tests is requiring >=97%-99% sensitivity and specificity. Viral load is a consideration also but my gut feeling is that specification is unlikely to be achievable.

I do not believe any of the current rapid covid tests being proposed will come anywhere near the specificity and sensitivity being demanded in the government specification. I stand to be corrected on this.

djbrandon.
I appreciate your response to my earlier reservations regarding rapid testing in certain situations eg cruise ships. I do see value in water testing hence my investment in Modern Water. I also believe that Digital Health Passes may become useful particularly in recording vaccinations. We are hopefully going to reach a situation next year and beyond when a significant proportion of the world population will have been vaccinated. However not all vaccines might be considered equal and proof of one having received an approved vaccine may be required at state borders for example to avoid managed isolation as practised here in NZ.

Yes there are other illnesses on cruise ships but these other illnesses might not kill older passengers to the same extent as Covid. Opening up cruises, certainly for older passengers is not going to be facilitated by more frequent testing in my opinion.

Testing positive at the airport can lead to unwelcomed consequences. Insurance not a lot of use if you get treated as this couple see attached article.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8840015/Couple-forced-luxury-Greek-break-quarantine-hell-hole-hotel-airport-Covid-19-test.html

As someone who has cruised a number of times I fail to see how the breathaliser will help cruise lines and passengers. Firstly cruises are usually booked and paid for months in advance. If passengers are tested before being allowed on board and fail, do they lose all their money. Secondly many passengers fly to join a cruise, if they cannot join the cruise how do they get home as return flights will have to be changed at substantial cost. Also they would not be allowed on flight back home. If the passengers are expected to test themselves before leaving home, can they be trusted.
Also because testing using the breathaliser may not reveal low viral loads, cruise passengers would need to be retested after around three days on board if they fail this second test, what happens then.
Most passengers book trips so they will be leaving the ship a number of times during the trip. Hence they could pick up infection on shore. This means that frequent repeat testing will be required while onboard.
Too many risks and uncertainties here and I for one will not be cruising until the epidemic is under control from vaccination.
A similar situation will occur when flighing. What happens if one or more of a family fails an airport test. Are all airfares refunded. If it is return journey how do you get home.
With all these so called good ideas, the devil is in the detail.

Too many ducks have to fall in line for this business model to work. The test needs to be demonstrated as being at least as effective as existing tests. Hardware and software will need to be produced tested and made available, this will take time. All this will need to be funded before any certainty that public will be willing to participate and knowing that a vaccine could make the project unecessary. A project of this size would take a minimum of twelve months to get off the ground even for a multinational company with vast resources not available to Deepverge.

Mr Underhill.
Tend to agree with your on consolidation particularly with respect to of 'penny' shares. Logically it does not make sense but a 5p share consolidated 10 to 1 should settle around 50p. However there is a phycological effect here where a 5p share can appear good value yet the same share consolidated to 50p looks expensive. Doesn't make sense I know but the stock market is not always logical.

No problem with merger. But why consolidate. My experience of consolidation is that it invariably leads to a reduction in the consolidated price over the subsequent weeks. I cannot understand why company management get sold on this idea.

Any real time test would have to be 100% accurate ie no false negatives. Even if this is technically achievable with your product how do you demonstrate this to the satisfaction of the regulators. I would be interested in Mr Brandon's take on this.

Has anyone tried to use the delivery option. When ever I try using a London postcode I receive the message 'no restaurants deliver in your area' . Tried a number of postcodes same message.What is the point of launching a 'beta' software which as no utility. Will just put users off. I tried Downing Street postcode and obtained message 'invalid post code'. Boris will have to get on his bike!
Any of you tried using the Bigdish App.

I would be very surprised if Aiden was in the Philippines in the middle of an epidemic! I think is time would be better used trying to raise cash in the City.

Meant to be end of July launch of 'Bigdish-to-Go'. Wishful thinking on behalf of management here (just like Boris's Test and Trace). Software platforms do not get created or modified overnight especially when management is in UK and workers (programmers) are in the Philippines (presumably working from home). Communications must be difficult to say the least.

The issue here, is how do the local authorities get water testing infrastructure in place. Also getting from a few trial successes to a production system could take years. The Covid is unfortunately here and now.

My problem is I do not see what they have delivered so far. Yes they have linked their App to a number of restaurant chains own websites. But this is hardly rocket science, just a few lines of code, nothing to do with SaaS. I wait with interest to see what 'BigDish-to-go' adds to the party. It is not as if BigDish are providing a complete booking software package, which restaurants can lease as an SaaS package, restaurant chains have there own arrangements. Or am I missing something here?

Whilst agreeing that timing is everything, one can hardly say Bigdish has timed it right when they have wasted two years and millions of pounds getting to their new business model!
As far as the chains are concerned, Bigdish App takes you to the restaurants own booking system. If I wanted to book an Harvester meal why would I waste time with the Bigdish App, quicker to go directly to the Harvester App.

Eatigo had first mover advantage and was generating substantial revenue unlike Bigdish which is currently acting as a charitable organisation. In fact I struggle to see how the auditors will be able to sign off the annual accounts on a 'going concern" basis without a substantial fund raise. Bigdish are just demonstrating they are able to deliver a viable business model where is Bigdish to Go for example due at the end of July! To deliver the SaS model and the other promised changes will require substantial software effort, I am far from convinced they have the in house resources to deliver on these promises

Under proposed relaxed lockdown rules, NZ restaurants are moving to home deliveries. This is relevant to BigDish as NZ are ahead of the UK in Covid -19 recovery cycle.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12325611

Underlying figures much better than you imply stt.
Exceptional one off share based payment cost, impairment and 'right of use' depreciation. Take these out and you are looking at underlying pretax of around £32m and adj EBITDA of £47m. This cannot be bad p/e of 7 !

Tech teams work remotely all the time.

Is there any reason why this App cannot be adapted to include takeaway meals ? It would appear to me that there is an advantage in encouraging customers to order outside peak hours. Obviously this is not something that can be instigated overnight but might be introduced with minimum software change. Any comments.