Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Interesting all the chartist discussion, but shouldn't you all be following the charts for the copper price? Haven't run a correlation between the sp and cu but expect it will be pretty close to 1! Cu certainly explains all the recent movement in sp since the Russia announcement. Perhaps looking at the sp charts gets you to the same place, but as a purist...
Have been looking at the numbers for the Aktogay expansion, to assess how much better things will look in a couple of years when the Baimskaya expenditure is expected to start ramping up. The Aktogay expansion will boast copper production by another 50k or so from end of 2021, with net costs of 98c/lb, so with copper around $7k will add $240m or so of cashflow. Annual cashflows from operating activities should then be around $1bn, which looks like plenty of dosh to service the debt they'll then have, bearing in mind Baimskaya's $5.5bn odd of capex will be incurred over a number of years to 2029. Need to put it all together in my model later this week when I get a moment, but I'm feeling more confident the SP will stage a strong recovery absent additional copper price headwinds (trade issues, FED rate hikes etc).
...a disappointing 7% or so (wups earlier on my dividend calculation). Still, very nice to have these shares finally paying something.
Hi Shakhtar, the yield would be 12c/USD700, so a yield of 0.017% right? Anyhow, should be a strong opening, especially if copper is up 2% as mentioned below (haven't checked that)
...interim dividend of 6c a share declared, a start at least!
I'm very excited by the prospect of copper falling even further! Kaz will tank, which would present an amazing buying opportunity once again - didn't think we'd get a second chance. I'm waiting for tomorrow's results before looking at the Russian deal in more detail, and two FED rate hikes are expected in the coming months, so I'll likely hold off buying more for now and see how things play out. Hopefully the rate hikes and further bad news from China will push EMs and copper into meltdown.
Oh dear, now a long way from my 860 re-entry. Hard to believe this was 1100 just a few weeks ago!
Anyhow, losing approx USD1.3 billion in market cap today vs a USD900m deal with only USD675m payable now seems an outsized over reaction. If the local government indeed pulls finger and builds the infrastructure, then why not - could all work out for Kaz.
Hi Tucson, agree with your views. This is a great opportunity to buy more for those with funds who don't need to take T20 or margin risks. The 12 month future is pretty clear imo, but you need the funds to ride it out. A drop 700 or less could occur in meantime. Roll on the trade war, can only enhance entry values! Will all blow over.
Think you're gping to end up well under water there as can't see Kaz recovering in your tiimeframe. A good lesson not to use these trading methods, or at least understand high risk can mean high losses, not high returns.
...for 40,000 shares.
Yes, all thanks to Trump. Is it all a storm in a tea cup with Trump lacking the stomach for a full on tariff war or will this get a lot worse before sense prevails... Tempted to come back in at current sp.
Hi Tucson, I get around 12.30p with copper at 3.50, so same ball park. I'll re-enter if the sp takes a wobble back to 900p or so, but would need some unexpected macro event for that to happen. I'm holding 50% cash in my portfolio, waiting for an opportunity...
Hi Tuscon, I get a value of around 10.50p assuming copper at 7k (3.18). I haven't updated for the proposed Aktogay expansion though, which should increase value by bringing copper revenues forward. So, a very reasonable stance to hold on for another year or so in expectation of further uplift - higher copper prices from 7k(?) and accelerated production from Aktogay. Perhaps I shouldn't have sold, haha. Still mustn't be too greedy.
...took my 77k profit for this leg off the table. Now I've sold, it's probably the best time to buy based on my past luck, lol. I'm a good contrary indicator. ATB
Hi Tuscon, I'm still here! Glad I got back in just under 800p a few months ago. Missed the 625p to 800p run up, but hey, am up another 60k on the smaller stake I took, so happy. No plans to sell before 1000p+! If only we'd all bought more when 65p a couple of years ago, haha. Love Kaz, and nothing further on buying those dud Russian assets.
This news is concerning, nothing encouraging about it after a few minutes googling on the resource and the location. Why buy into a remote resource no body else wants (others have looked it at and decided against) at time when copper prices are $7k+. No doubt needs high copper prices to be viable, but also means paying top dollar for the acquisition. I'd much prefer if this management focused on paying down debt and throwing cash back to shareholders. Go shopping in the next commodity down turn, if at all, not now. Look how ENRC turned out for them, a messy entanglement. If the KAZ board want to repeat their past strategy, which failed, of trying to grow into a large diversified miner of the likes of BHP, Rio Tinto etc, then I'm going pass once I've pocketed the next upswing. I won't hang about to see if they make a mess of it again. SP today reacted negatively to the news.
This is more like it. This time I'm not getting off until 1000p +!
...I'm back in, just below 800. I'm here to collect a checky gbp30k or so on the way to 1000 and beyond! Great posts over the last little while, thanks everyone. Looking forward to 22nd Feb :-)
Hi Tucson, sounds like a lovely holiday you're having! I haven't yet bought back in, but the sp has my interest again. I'll likely take my chances and see if the copper price drifts back to 2.70/lb over the next few months, and if it does will looking at buying again...