Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
I think we need to qualify “downside risk” as I suspect it means different things to different people.
Maybe another way to look at it is to consider factors weighing against sustainable growth in the m-cap that makes this anything more than a jam tomorrow, trading play.
As much as I love the story here, I still see too many negatives to present smooth, sustainable growth which is the ideal curve for a long term investment.
And apologies if my response sounded direct. As I say - I’m invested but think there is clear risk and clear downside.
If the question at the top of the thread were “what is the potential upside from here” I could’ve also rattled off a quick list.
I will hold my hands up to being frustrated when I see posts here that toll an unreasonable bias one way or the other. My view of a decent discussion board is where both sides of the coin can be examined collectively and result in a more profitable strategy for those involved.
Max - I’m invested here and I want success - but the way you’re rebuffing reasonable points of risk is akin to sticking your fingers in your ears and making “La La La” noises. A question was asked of the board and I’ve replied.
Crusty has addressed your most outrageous rebuttal. It is a fact that Asset Managers show minimal interest in Oil & Gas minnows (call me out on a typo if you wish) and it is institutional investors who are going to drive a sustained growth in market cap. I can’t put much in the public domain but safe to say my day job gives me confidence in making this statement.
I really don’t get the inability to acknowledge an investment here exposes you to both risk and potential downside - it really stifles intelligent debate.
Some Downside/Risk off the top of my head:
- License extension only granted until March
- Share price is suppressed by lack of institutional interest (oil minnows out of favour/toxic)
- Share price is suppressed by long term holders wanting to exit so sell into news
- CH-1 is unsuccessful
- The lack of pace at which things move in Tanzania
- We are still v much a 1 trick pony
I think it’s helpful to consider the macro climate and not just look at the company itself. The equity markets have been in steady decline again and more and more the O&G sector is becoming a toxic investment - not just because of the environmental impact but the profitability impact of switching from hydrocarbons into renewables. Interesting article below (and I’m sure indicative of why our only Majedie have dumped)
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8900357/amp/Fund-titans-blacklist-BP-green-shift-profits.html
I’m not mad. I’m cynical and without emotion
- no capital letters here - but not mad.
It’s already been stated that it’s highly unlikely the drill and seismic will not complete before the current license extension expires. Ignoring red flags like this in the past is exactly why long term holders (myself included) have not made good money from their holding.
I’m simply suggesting a more active approach may be more lucrative.
Maybe they’re just playing it better and this really isn’t a share to hold long term?
The only way I’ve seen to make money in this share in the last decade or more is trading it. It’s an uncomfortable truth for any long term holder but one that may help future decisions.
No denying we want the same thing but I stopped buying after sinking £65k in over the years. 3p to get that money back. So patience has not paid off for me.
I do feel there is the chance of that happening now at some point, though think it would be naive to expect a smooth run from farm-out to production.
I’ve held since 2006 and have the view that patience certainly does not pay off; it’s been an appalling investment!
Things are looking more positive now yes, but the elephant in the room is that the extension to the Mtwara licence was only granted for 1 year (and therefore expires end of April
2021). There is enough previous here to bet that this is far more likely to cause delays and difficulty further down the line.
NED’s only earn a nominal fee - typically around £30k a year and are a requirement of the stock exchange in making up an independent Board.
Looks to me like they’ve retained some good experience at a better price.
What’s the contrary - non emotional - view?
Hey Edgar - I didn’t see in your question where it said “to shift a slow moving government” so was answering from a more general context - my view being that the perception has been of an organisation sitting on their hands while being well rewarded.
But .... we’ll have to agree to disagree - to my mind the government still hasn’t shifted - and if we had a team who had forged better relationships and organised themselves into a more professional outfit, both perceptibly and tangibly, then the government may well have shifted by now. Maybe not - but I’d say working hard at something increases ones chances of success and would certainly have gone some way to mitigating the dire investor sentiment. An organisation that can’t even update a cheap website with accurate information is shoddy and does not inspire confidence.
Anyway - damn discussion boards are distracting things. At the end of the day we all want the same thing here...’
Sentiment based on what though John? Froth, nonsense and hope - not sustainable so likely to pop at some point based on more froth and nonsense. At least you have something apparently honest to work with now and for me the that also gave credibility to the fact the farm out is still coming.
I directed funds I’d considered for AEX in to Amazon based on his video and have made a 50% return. That can now be put aside leverage against the drill sentiment which I still expect to come - just later than we’d hoped/expected.
Edgar - off the top of my head, I’d say the following. And the money is significant despite your wish to avoid its discussion. If I can perhaps get you to think of it from this angle - I work. I work hard - generally from 8:30 to 6 each day. I don’t earn anything like the salary AEX’s executives do. How many hours a week do you think they have worked throughout this process?
But to your question:
Communicated better and more transparently with shareholders and set expectations
Worked hard with road shows and presentations to excite investors about the Ruvuma potential
Located to Tanzania or spent a lot more time there, forging relationships with the British consulate, local businesses and officials
Worked with PR companies to push the above actions into the press
Funded as much as possible of the above from their own generous income
Been transparent about what happened to the money that was raised to fix Kiliwani
Updated the website so it accurately reflected the companies current status
Worked closely with Wentworth to learn from their better relationship with the Tanzanians
Developed and communicated a clear strategy for coping with the covid crisis
Apologised for the delays and explain why they’ve happened
Contrary to what a lot of people have said here - I rate Ambrose.
Aex
July 14th
“savings of circa US$ 2.5 million per annum, a reduction of around 50%”
This suggests a current burn rate of around $48k per week.
July 14th
“US$3 million funding arrangement provided by ARA in November 2019 (the "Advance"), all of which has been drawn down by the Company”
June 30th
“the US$3 million funding arrangement provided by ARA in November 2019 (the "Advance"), of which US$2.67 million”
This suggests a burn of $165k per week.