Member Info for HarChris

I enjoy picturing the faces of people like this as they look and see the share price rising and honestly can’t get their confused heads around it.

And I said I'm confident we'll never see the share price starting with a 2 ever again (till we're at 200p). This has confirmed that, today we'll see a sizeable rise.

"This placing for July's convertible bond repayment presents us with greater funding solution optionality, as we enter a pivotal period commercially with multiple catalysts over the coming months. I am very confident our strengthened Board and management team will ensure we are well positioned to capitalize on the multiple opportunities our pre|CISION® technology is enabling"

This is a great paragraph… we’re going to be looking at a totally different outlook come next payment in October.

That's undeniable. I mean, even someone like myself who's made this about 10% of their portfolio would be trebling up or more if I thought GRL were highly likely to get to even 30% shy of their production target. I simply don't know.

The facts are that historically they've always underdelivered and so we have to be sensible and accept that and judge the risk accurately. They may continue to miss their target by a longshot and this inevitably gets bought for peanuts or even goes into administration. But it's also a rare situation where simply hitting a long held target (1000 dore/815 troy) means many, many multiples, possibly a 10 bagger or more.

We'll find out soon enough... or they'll report an 'okay' latest monthly production figure and continue to modestly generate cash and we'll have to sit and wait and hope that the following month is the biggie!

You're right, it's a major risk factor. No one should deny that.

The poor performance has opened up a potential upside however for those late to the party. CMCL trades at 17 times 2024 profit likely falling to about 10 with this year's supernormal profit. If GRL can get production up to an average of just 500 ounces this half year (a small improvement on H1) we'll be looking at a forward PE of around 1, making Goldstone 10 times cheaper on a net profit per mcap basis.

Of course the downside risk here is bigger, there's a chance of GRL going to zero and there isn't for CMCL, and there's other less extreme downside scenarios too. But the upside is arguably at least ten times greater, that's 1000%, in terms of relative cheapness based on an increased production figure that's still well below the rather unambitious target.

It's a case of how much are you willing to risk based on the risk/reward. For me that answer is 'quite a lot', for you it's none having cut your deep losses. Different views make a market.

Citadel may well have reduced yesterday, we'll find that out today after close.

My guess would be simply many eyes on this at historical lows and with the news Friday digested one of those on the sidelines decided to make their move with others chasing it up.

It doesn’t have to be anymore than that with the share price still 25% lower than a year ago and 55% lower than two years ago and 70% lower than three years ago despite entering the business season of this first phase of the JV.

What an odd comment.

The diagram in the new slide deck shows what they are aiming for. With the second jig plant installed I think we should see close to 1000T contained tin produced in H2 of this year (Sept-Feb), that's much more than a doubling over a short time frame.

That should bring the AISC down to around the $25/kt level AV mentioned in the last discussion and see sizeable cash generation at this tin price.

Diamond, there would be some cash for drilling at Bots/Chingola as long as ARCM get this cash payment in the coming months and the executive management haircut is closer to the 50% end. And especially if certain payments can be deferred in H2 26 to Q1 27 but don’t get me wrong, it’s not ideal to only have enough cash to limp on and wait for the JV to deliver, it’s just better than what it was looking like.

Re court case / Mushi go back and look at the 16th Jan RNS. We’re hoping for damages that would put this cash concern discussion to bed.

It’s probably just a lagging reaction to the positive news Friday.

At 1p previously a placing was very much being priced in with only a few options to avoid it. Now there’s certainly cash right through to mid 2026 and with enough management cost cutting and/or some salary deferral they’ll make it first to Nov 26 payment and then the sizeable end of phase 1 tranche if it follows fairly soon after (after dry season and drilling ceases). And there’s still the other options on top.

Friday’s news was a big derisking moment.

The whole JPM thing was a total red herring that hopefully hasn’t sucked too many people in - surprised the share price is still at 2p today but surely, surely there is no return to be had from here?

I also like the clear and transparent detail given in the business update - it's a huge improvement on what we got in the past.

There’s a lot to be positive about finally but your market cap estimate isn’t right. In time once all the CLNs convert to 3.75p we’ll be looking at close to 200m more shares, so probably best to work off around 315m shares ie at 3.75p that would be around £12m/$16m mcap.

Lots of interesting snippets in the Charmain’s Statement. Record level of production in April, still on track to exceed break even levels and reach 1000tpm target by the end of this month.

Won’t be relisted for a while though as now need an extension for this year’s accounts, for the period to Mar 31st 2025.

If the production target is achieved this month though I’d consider TGR a buy upon their eventual relisting.

Peggy and co still waiting for their 0.5p entry… Hopefully this retraces 60% so they can get involved still.

Take advantage of their free trial, you will be able to download the broker note and those of other companies too without costing you anything.

I fully concur, very reassured by this update and glad I substantially lowered my average in the 20s.

Here's to all of us slowly clawing back our losses!

Well I was going to say it's extremely unusual to get such regular updates from an executive like we do here from Martin, the level of transparency and accountability is refreshing and gives an edge to those who really dig into the detail and do their research rather than being left in the dark until the quarterly results period comes around. But I also suspected Martin was likely overstretching himself so to bring in someone like Mike to me feels like a good combo... having said that though in today's business update we find out that the regular videos are stopping going forward:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hDjhY8u2LI

I like the decision to do an open day at the new THG warehouse and the timing leads me to think they will be fully up and running before Q3 is out. Also positive news re the stock they've got in from Europe which adds to the belief in record revenues later this year.

In answer to another question you had for me earlier Bobby I plan to share more thoughts on here soon but it was the disclosure of Miton taking such a significant share at what was essentially no discount that got me following through with my recent buys. Despite constantly stating that HUD were fully funded I didn't quite buy it/at least suspected that cash constraints would hinder growth later this year and some sort of cash injection would be needed so the news of the £1.5m, the tie up with THG Ingenuity and then the Miton disclosure leads me to think that now is the most opportune time to really commit, having read this bb and following HUDs progress for a while .

It is a hard business to get right but I do think in Martin and Mike they have two people with the drive and skill set to achieve it.

As for today’s two holding RNS’, for those that don’t know this is simply a reduction in their holdings due to dilution from the recent share subscription. They haven’t sold any.

That’s the plan, whether or not he’s achieved this in such a short space of time remains to be seen though.