Member Info for Happytom

86K should be achievable - 17K in Q1 was from two months only as it took a while to get going after the strike and binding failure, so ramp that up to nine months and we're looking at 77K straight off, plus there is a large stockpile of ore to process. Directors said 15months ago that this would start to turn back into profit Q3, and they may be on target!

Morning Lofty, I'm still here! Q1 is a lot better than expected (or at least than I expected!), considering we lost all of January. Maybe this will turn around after all. Slightly disappointed at the lack of any progress at all with Tri-K or Souma - I know that we are cash strapped, but the board have enough technical experience themselves to be able to work out some plans. Just have to watch and see!

Contrary to popular belief, it is only possible to sell 2M shares when there are some buyers - the trade initialisation may be a sell, but if its to a broker or market maker they'll need to be moved on. In my opinion, no-one would lumber themselves with that quantity (compared to normal trading) without believing that they could move them on for a profit.

Looks like we're being taken seriously at last - the divi must have put us on the fund radar! Anyone recall the last time that over 2M shares were traded in a year, let alone a day!

Divi date is in the future, so space go walk it down, load up and reap the rewards- I hate them all!

current dip looks like chartists, resistance broken so the shorters all pile in. IMHO it will recover back to 1200-1250 in the not too distant, but I may be completely and utterly wrong - who cares, it's the weekend!

true to a point, but the short LoM is just Inata, we still have Souma and at time of writing Tri-K. The global economy is also pretty bad, with a whole host of countries sitting in fear of further Greece shenanigans. There may be good news from China - they need to create 10M jobs this year, which will predominantly be in manufacturing, probably a good deal in electronics that are gold-hungry, so don't count out a rise in the gold price. I'm not recommending to buy any more AVM if you're already in a hole, but I'm not selling mine either. Other producers are also taking a battering, but there are deals to be had - I took fifty percent on SOL a couple of weeks back which has helped the overall mining portfolio, and I live in hope that we'll see another unexpected lift here!

Time for some more numbers methinks! Say $200 profit (difference between all costs and sale price of the gold), if Inata has only two years left at around 80K ounces a year, that's $32M clear revenue. So that leaves $50M of debt. Then if Souma adds a year, that's something like 500K ounces (I'm assuming 60% extraction), which I find hugely unlikely, but fingers crossed. That adds another $100M. So, over three years, we may see $50M clear of any debt, or 25c / share. That'd be great from current price point, but is it in the least bit conceivable that we could extract 500K in a year from Souma? There must be something else afoot. Further highlighted by the complete absence of Tri-K from this report. As usual, we are not being told something, and the suspicious side of me says that we're selling Tri-K along with all rights to Souma beyond a three year period, in order to settle with the creditors. Any luck that will see a return on today's values, but who knows!

Last official number was a bit shy of $1200 ($1181 maybe?) but there have been two significant changes since then - fuel costs down, so cost down, and the strike which halted all mining. Believe it or not, the strike has probably reduced the costs - we were able to process some of the stock, and have re-opened with reduced manpower more commensurate with our production levels. The BoD did say this time last year that they were aiming for sub $900 in 2015 and they may yet be proven able (sorry Lofty, I know you won't agree with that one!).

Obviously an unpopular stance today, but I'm of the opinion that there's a 100% upside here over the next year or so. The Euro will suffer a whole load more, but that should just chase people away from service sector and into commodities, and diamonds are not by any way in oversupply - the prices realised last quarter are still more than double what they were four years ago, and although we still had the Oz yellows in our portfolio then, we were worth a lot more than we are now, which is just incomprehensible to me!

It's all about how you tell it isn't it - I'm beginning to think that Reuters has some sort of agenda here. The company did not say that they see a weakening in prices, just that the average prices achieved were lower than the previous quarter, which could be for a whole host of reasons, generally to do with the size and quality of the stones recovered. The reduction also doesn't include the 10K carats that are stockpiled for release to Antwerp this month and into February. We're in a really good place so far as I can tell, cash flow is still very positive, cash in bank is still very positive, and there is a maiden divi announcement coming in March. Anyway, make hay while the sun shines, excellent price to top up some more!

Thanks - so stronger dollar equals lower costs, ergo weaker dollar equals higher costs, unless the Euro behaves in the same manner. However, the lower oil price should help us to reduce costs, which is a bonus.

Gold is priced in USD, but we are traded in GBP, so if the dollar weakens, any profits in terms of GBP are reduced. Production and sale of the gold stuff is pretty well all in USD, so we are just talking about the exchange rate for profits here, not any major deltas on production costs.

IF gold hits $1800 this year, and we have not disposed of assets, then I see very little reason why we won't be over £2, unless the USD crashes as well. We are now unhedged, which with low prices looks like a bad decision, but if prices rise to those levels again, then it's a great decision and will see us beyond where we were last time.

Seems sensible - we need to cut costs, and there is a large stockpile to process, and unofficial reports are that the striking miners trashed the place, so I'd not be wanting them back either. In response to draft (is that really your name, or did LSE stuff up somewhere!), yes, we could well be looking at selling assets, and also at outsourcing the mining ops at one or more of them. Neither will see the heady highs of a couple of years back, but would be several times higher than current share price.

Good argument, except that we were producing gold back then!

It's not a bucket and spade, but the density is looking good. Waiting for some official confirmation, but I have an itch in the back of my head that sub $600 is being banded around for all in costs. Struggling for cash at the moment though, so it is a major punt.

If you're really hungry, add SOLG to that list - not producing yet, and full funding is not certain, but sitting on what is indicated to be a very dense lump of ground with inexpensive extraction costs.

Just looking back at the last few months, sorry all, I was out by a considerable margin - had this climb in gold price as being end of September / early October, but somehow the Eurozone clung on - I thought it would have gone earlier, and also that it would have taken the pound with it. Got a long term position on oil at sub $30, gold hitting $1500 and GBP at $1.40, all of which will signify that the economy really has gone to s&*t, but would also see AVM flying high once more! Don't know whether to cross my fingers and hope I'm right or wrong!

Price of gold rising. Production re-starting as well, although not sure if that is a good or a bad thing - for me, the best thing would be to keep mining at a minimum and just process the stockpile to get cashflow in the right direction.