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Following imminent panic from ii’s. Maybe it will touch 140s and then a likely hostile bid very soon in the coming weeks with no permanent ceo or chairman to recommend rejecting lowballs. Hope I breakeven overall.
Nothing to be bullish about
Nothing to be panicking about
But metro being metro on quarterly earnings means huge movements for the next 2 weeks. Best of luck if shorting or holding. Going to be lots of profits getting direction correct.
Personally I think pulling the 7.5% bond to cause share price free fall was all part of Hill’s plan to take metro private on the cheap.
Would be hilarious if the 9.5% bond backers were all his mates who wanted a slice of metros shares on the cheap.
Also do note that though he would need to pay £9.18 per share, he could accumulate his 29.9% on the open market at £2-4 easily and average out around £7 overall
Cybg bought virgin money for 1.7bn when virgin had an asset book of 41bn
In comparison to any metro takeover, 900-950m seems like a similar offer a bidder could make, so 525-550p looks more likely than pie in the sky £7-10 predictions.
Metro and virgin are both very very similar. Little historical ppi scandals, virgin has Northern rock bank run shadow, metro has accountancy behind its tracks.
Whilst capital ratios and liquidity is shown to be rather positive and the credit downgrade is negative, one may assume it could go either way: up to 250+ or down to 150 again.
Everyone who has been holding as long as the majority here knows it only goes down on RNS. Why kid ourselves.
Rather than ramping and shorting let’s just hold, pray with Toll and hope.
I believeeeeeeee!!!
I do agree next week will be a strong rally but there needs to be some positive rns and/or a positive comment from PRA regarding MREL requirements before sp will go anywhere near 400p+
The last IR rns was so badly written so I don’t see metro representing investors at all.
1. Shorts closing
2. Amazing q3 results
3. Hill reinstated as chairman, CEO AND CFO resigning
4. PRA investigations concluded (even with a fine is ok to clear up the air)
5. Brexit deal
6. Debt raise to satisfy MREL
The possibility of all the above happening is unlikely as we have seen week after week of sp trashing. October is a good shot for 2. And 5.
Would dilute existing shareholders too significantly for them to vote and agree to it.
My thoughts are they are either:
a. Rally sp to support a private bond with lower interest rate amongst American backers.
This could prove successful if they can get a better credit rating than the current prospective.
b. Rally sp then do a rights issue as they would be aware that it is mutually beneficial.
Currently large equity investors do not want to invest at this share price as there are only 10-20m undervalued shares in the open market before it rallys to book value and this is not ideal with much negative press. This way the rights issue would release shares that large backers can invest heavily in knowing they get the price they want.
c. Hope PRA gives them contingency time to bring capital to MREL interim requirements and pray with Toll that Q3 is good.
Very pleased they didn’t issue shares to dilute shareholders further.
Tier 1 capital already strong following the 375m share issue and now tier 2 capital should be strong for their growth, continued operations and regulatory requirements especially MREL in 2020.
Shooters will probably still undermine metro and continue trashing sp but if all 3b gets filled quickly we could see a huge spike in sp much much closer to book value, maybe 0.75x rather 0.3x
OH wow they closed more than odey did the day before. Also they got all the panic sell shares from the gs broker note.
Huge rise coming with shorter all racing to buy back before each other with only so many cheap shares left.
350p+ close by end next week easily and out of this sub 300p ditch. BUY!!