Member Info for guygad

Discounting to the extent that the don't exist--Ubisoft doesn't have any BIDS inventory (last year, in Hyperscape they carried a lot of Burberry but no longer. Codemasters hasn't carried BIDS inventory since Codemasters was absorbed into EA. FM, in Sega, carriers some inventory from time to time and the CPM was $15 last year but my understanding is that this is no longer the case. Happy to be enlightened on the name of any other AAA games .

Any esport collaborations are not expected to have a material impact. Same goes for VR.

Incremental bid levels have no impact on revenues--it simply an operating model.

CPMs start at $1 and have in the past (for AAA games) has indeed risen to $15.

For broker estimates, check the Cenkos reports--the most recent is Sept 2 and all are available for free.

For a list of games, check Bidstack RNS, their web site, twitter, etc. I played Tennis, Soccer Cup, Mr Bean, BMX2, Dirt Trackin (which I think is now an adverty title), GRID, Top Eleven, etc. Ads seen include Marriot (which had a good presence), Door Dash, a couple of US universities, Nerd Wallet, Samsung, etc.

For a proxy, I use StrongVPN--gives me access to various US cities, UK, all the large market countries in Europe, the far east, etc.

Cenkos is looking for £4m this year. They cleared £820k for the first half leaving £3.2m for the second half.

CPM for mobile games is US$1 - $3

Taking an average $2 CPM, they need 1.5 billion hits to make their revenue number for the year. If they have 200 games, all pulling their weight, thats 43,000 ads per game each day. If 43k people play each game every day for six months, everyone playing each of the 200 games, should see an ad in every game. Ignoring that they don't have 200 popular games on platform.... in playing these games, in different locations in the UK, US, Europe, the far east, the middle east, I saw a hit rate that came no where near this.

primary research.... the best way to get insight into the performance of a company--download a proxy onto your device, spend a morning playing the most popular games in the UK, US, Germany, Japan, etc., and keep note of the ads you see.

The only reason that the stock is heading south is that the company is falling way short of ad placements to meet its revenue goals for the year. This, in turn, means that its burning cash too quickly and increases the prospects for another dilutive capital raise in late 2022/ early 2023.

I've been sniffing around more stock for a while, but the price wont budge. Impressive performance today, given the across the board declines.

Management have been on the cusp for too long, no doubt about it, but this has created opportunity.

Witness (April 30) 2022 forecast revs (£15m) 75% covered by existing contracts at start of (financial) year. Since then, two contracts announced by RNS for which ~£2.4m could be recognized this year taking announced revs to £13.6m. Additional contracts announced will take the company closer/ to/ past the forecasts for the year and we could expect Paul Hill, Simon Thompson to pound the table at that point.

Again, management performance has been a problem and might remain so but the current performance of the company is not reflected in the price of the stock. (Of course, I've been buying and will continue to do so if the price falls further so do not have a neutral perspective.)

A lot easier if one is chatting to C- level execs hours and days before those conversations become public.

Many thanks for taking the time. Looks like i've some work ahead of me.

I've no position in HEMO, but am curious..... i've taken a look at SPAngel's research notes, but non feature any forward looking numbers. Can you fellas point me in the direction of a research house that covers HEMO, other than SPAngel?

Many thanks, in hope

Interesting the spike in price on not an unusual trading vol.--in line with historical trading vols, more than last few weeks.

The Allenby research note has signif reduced revs for 2021 and 2022 (less so for EPS) and a 2021 net cash position of £467k (down from £1,678k). I'm hoping that the bad news is now in the stock, so that operating cash flow will turn positive next year (as it does in the Allenby note). All the same, this feels like a knife edge. (I've trimmed my position into the afternoon strength.)

The question is whether he’s trading a position between interviewing an exec and publishing the interview.

SFH300... am still in the name and my view remains the same. In my mind, it's in the safe/ cash flow/ good managemenet/ good fundamentals part of my portf--I don't expect the thing to double overnight but it will pay a safe dividend going forward and i can sleep at night. That noted, the one fly-ointment scenario for BigBlu would be the potential for power cuts in Scandinavia this winter (which might be a deterrent for new customers to come aboard). There's also the oft discussed risk of the whole market falling.

In any case.... I'm still long and happy with the investment.

Has JW sold some of his holdings in BIOM?

with the notice of results/ results poised for the next couple of weeks, have you fellas been accumulating ahead of the event/s?

On twitter too--part of a coordinated marketing campaign.

Listening to some of the big pharma/ healthcare qly reports in the US, it seems like a lot of non urgent, non covid procedures have taken a back seat in the last three months. If true, this will push back the surge in revs that we're looking for.

I'm in for the long haul, and i'm confident in the company, so for me it's no more than a pain in the balls. would much pref the alternative, though.

The market cap of this company is £115m and trades 1.5m shares a day. If a shorter is on this forum with the aim of influencing the share price he/ she is waisting time. Same goes for anyone pumping the stock.

The only reason this stock has been declining, and every other stock of a company developing new biotherapeutics, is that large holders have been selling. Maybe DDDD is gonna fold and maybe its going to the moon but there's no sense letting this nonsense ruin your day--it's a whisper in the wind and has no impact.

I got a cheeky near double out of it and need the cash elsewhere. (That, and my continuing moans about the dilutions.)

Hope you fellas continue to thrive.

Management has released names of games, some of them exclusive. Download the games to your phone. Get a proxy for a month (eg StrongVPN) and play the games in different parts of the UK, US, Europe, etc) and take screen grabs of the in-game ads.

Get enough ads and you can get some reassurance that your investment is more than a gamble. Otherwise, you are just trusting management that has historically missed guidance or worse.

(Ad rates in the space are around $3 CPM—70-80% of which is kicked back to the game developer)