Member Info for guygad

I took a swing at researching the mobile games, this weekend, to gauge the extent to which the mobile games can help Bidstack reach its numbers this year.

Half way through the games, I'm not optimistic--for every game that's clearly not reaching the required threshold (BMX2, Gamebake Mr. Bean Special Delivery, Brazilian Ju-Jitsu, etc), it means that the other games (Dirt Track. FM, etc.) or the end of the year need to take up the slack.

Have you fellas experienced a more optimistic survey of ads in games?

No prob on the data.

That noted your re-post of the Sharecast analysis includes inaccurate info on the top line. From the Bidstack RNS, revenues for the 1H were £820,136. The only ref to £1.7m in the Bidstack RNS is for current liabilities (trade and other payables) up from £897,014 1H2020 to £1,720,508 in 1H2021.

Mobile games are charged at £3 CPM but mostly lower. (Console games around £14.) For 2021 revenues of £4m (Cenkos model) requires 2H21 revs of £3.18m or £530k per month. (This will be skewed for 4q weighting, but the £530k per month is a metric of current performance.) This calcs as 177m ad views per month or, for a portfolio of 30 games, 5.9m views per month (196k per day) for every game.

Reading this and the RNS, again, I’m seeing nothing that makes me want to sell the stock. My little holding is in my mental old oak chest for the long haul.

Many thanks indeed for this.

Any of you fellas have access to ST’s latest piece?

Looking through the note, the results don't look bad to me. Sure they've had some opportunities deferred, but revenue slightly increased, the sales pipeline increased, the product suite increased, the cash position increased (and the div secure), etc. Given the decline in price, (~175p to 134p) it looks like its on sale. In any case, as a result, today I've been buying.

New analysis at the Investors Chronicle highlights growth opportunities in the Nordic business and SkyMesh, and has a sum of the parts valuation of £1.75

I'd recommend you join the group. There's a good amount of negativity on the board, but none of the personal sniping that you find elsewhere. Add to that, the quality of research--which games are showing ads, etc.--is excellent.

Guile... are you a member of the bidlievers--might be worth your time, if not?

I'll take the under on that

If you’re taking a ratio of revenues from 1-2Q last year, this was heavily skewed by the high margin rates generated though placing Burberry in the console game Hyper Scape. For the ratio to have value this year, you need this pattern to hold. Again, Bidstack have pirouetted to mobile.

Cenkos has forecast revs of £4.0 this year. (Which itself results in a EBITDA loss of £6.2m.)

This is £333k per month, in revs.

At a rate of £3 CPM (the mobile game ad rate), this will require 111 million impressions (per month) or 3.7m per day

Being generous, if they place ads in 20 games, that's 185k users per day, every day, exposed to Bidstack ads.

However the company has shown no signs of hitting these targets in the first part of the year and, by their own admission, sales are back-end weighted so for every month of shortfall that will have to be made-up in the second half.

Mid year, Bidstack raised £10.863 million (before expenses).

To invest in BIDS you need to have comfort with these numbers, and still recognize that they will loose £6m this calendar year leaving them with £4.8m for next year.

I'd be looking for a Friday release (as with the prelim results for 2020). There's not a chance in Piers Morgan's mind that the results will be good, given the lack of progress in placing ads and the focus on mobile games (CPM for mobile of ~ £1-£3, vs. £15 and up for console). They'll be lots of chat about the quality of new hires, second half weighting, platform development and a quote from JD.

ST's report, published this evening, is titled 'Venture Life: Investors overlook massive earnings upgrades' within which he maintains a 130p target.

I've a starter position in the name and have spent much of the last two days looking at the numbers--company reports, the RNS, Cenkos, etc. For me, it looks a more than solid company but the short term outlook is the RNS against the upgrade in numbers (noted above) in the Cenkos model and ST to come. If the stock takes another leg down in the next couple of days I'll take my position to a full level.

There's a new Simon Thompson piece on ARIX at Investors Chronicle, if you fellas have access.

With the slide in the share price, off the back of the slide in value of Autolus (in the last year), Harpoon (since May), etc., i thought the news was already in the price of ARIX. For me, today's action is sticker shock at seeing the NAV decline in B&W.

Off the back of ARIX being a long term investment, cash on hand, the share buyback, excellent management, and granularity of the RNS I've been buying. (Of course, as an existing shareholder, perhaps i'm in denial.)

with volume. you fellas know if a tip sheet has something on SRT?

I bought in again--that what's changed, that and the markets as a whole on the slide. In the real world, I wish it was going up but I buy for the long term so I'll use the decline to buy more--it looks rock solid to me (cash rich, good management recently refocused on specific operations, vastly underserved market, etc).