Member Info for Gunsup

Bloom

Chill

I wouldn't over rely on USA GDP figures as a measure of how the economy doing..

They use GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)

G of course is the Govt spending.. Of that 2 components. The greater.....around $4.7tn Govt spending is a round 17% of total GDP.. The other federal budget of circa $1.8trillion around 60% is military..

If you were to strip out all the money the Govt pours into the system. The same this one with the Uk... It would already be in recession.

Anyhow. Mr Trump he speaking with top boys of Wall street today... He gonna find out who really running the circus..

STP

Going to be choppy till this settle... Still opportunities.

In the background what UVL up to... Looking like she has set a deadline for the EU to adopt a CDBC. As I read it now brought forward to Oct 2025..😫

https://www.cryptopolitan.com/europe-central-bank-oct-2025-digital-euro/

Is this another Trump problem they are desperately trying to head off... Is the way I read it...

"“Policy developments in other jurisdictions can have important consequences for us here in Europe,” concurred Irish finance minister Paschal Donohoe.

“These discussions are fundamentally linked to our own autonomy and to the resilience of our currency,” he added, stating that a European central bank digital currency (CBDC) was now critical to staying ahead of the curve"..

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/trump-crypto-push-could-hurt-europe-s-financial-stability-top-eu-official/ar-AA1AF8RT?ocid=BingNewsVerp

The fuel tanker explosion yesterday off Uk coast.. For sure a bad thing if the other cargo is reported as correct.. How this happen in this day and age?

Anthony..

Respect..

At least in this ever changing world we can still enjoy a flutter on the horses... Asking on this forum only give you the one answer bet on the black horse....🤣🤣

TFE

Respect..

Good point those ones.

But when says .

"Take your choice…cuts, reform, welfare changes, civil service reductions and job cuts"..

Missing off the default first choice... Tax rises, Those looking baked in.....😒

Tax system already far too complex..

HMRC £4.3bn to administer. Be even worse when basic pension cross the tax threshold.

Estimated low end cost to business circa £15bn..

Anthony

Respect..

See what the bond market up to..

Headline in telegraph today. It read

Markets bet on Trump recession..

"The returns offered to investors in the short-dated bond have dropped sharply since mid-February amid the US president’s tariff war against allies and China.

Traders have piled into the safe-haven asset amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates to support the economy.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/10/trump-tariffs-markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/

Jerome Powell going to have to decide which way to jump soon with rates at moment he still sat on the fence.

Morning bros. hope you all had the good w/e. Weather nice.

So what going to startle the Black horse this week.

Not good in Ukraine now Mr Trump he throw his toys out the pram. Starmer needs to tread carefully here. if he leads us into direct conflict will be a disaster.

Trade wars ramping up. Recession inbound?

Lots of rumours about where the gold going.. If it true I don't know but some say gold being sent to Fort Knox before the audit...If it not all there.. Lordy lordy best not be holding too many dollars..

What we missing?

Another 25bps cut to to 2.5%.

Meanwhile the hand that rocks the cradle the Bond markets starting to react to Trumps actions....

DT

"Trump had gone rogue"..

Not disagree with that one... Turning the world upside down..

He also loudly beating the Israeli war drum..

Every potential destroyed property and displaced family is another potential new set of arrivals for Benefit street, Anytown , Uk..

As for the markets , going to be a lot of turbulence imo.. Good thing/ bad thing?

Banks, arms makers etc doing good. if you export to certain markets could be a disaster.

Ll

Respect..

Was thinking that same thing myself...

China going through the gears as it ramps up its war machine. Spending now at 7.2% of its GDP..

Not sure if Taiwan doing right thing if it set up semiconductor business in the USA...

476p

Let not get carried away...

Bros. Chill.

Is a good day today with the SP up..

All I say on holdings is that I cannot recall ever buying in at the bottom or selling at the top. It not matter as long as you make a profit overall.

Pity our Govt not manage this..

Last Govt selling Natwest at 222.40 GBX in 2022 and not much better in 2023...

Current price is circa £476..... getting on for just over £1bn less than they could of got If they had waited on just those two transactions...😒😒

Ant

Respect..

What Mr Trump fails to realize is that you cannot just stop and start wars and you cannot stop and start trade tariffs and just make things up as you go along. As for Vance , what do you say? Kemi Badenoch keen to defend him shame on her.

trump is now seen as a very unreliable partner...

Mr Chips

Respect ..Plenty going on with gold be interesting to see where it go.. USA revaluing its gold could be interesting..

BB

For sure our own borders come first .. Those here illegally should be deported as a deterrent, but what we see happen? Uk a laughing stock ...

Now we have another war to deal with. The economic war, with tariffs and sanctions only a sharp word away.

How we fight this one? Farming land being used for housing, solar panel etc etc and the ability to make this in the Uk systematically dismantled over the past decades...

In 1943 a Wellington Bomber ( LN514 ) was assembled from scratch in 24 hrs at the factory at Broughton.. Be lucky to make a Wellington boot in that time now..

Answer to question is of course Mr Lindsey Hoyle..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/04/sir-lindsay-hoyle-taxpayer-funded-trips-revealed-flights-uk/

Fleccy

Who owned Crimea depends on what historic time frame you are looking it...

Like Putin or not you have to admit he has given the West a run for its money... All these game changing weapons we hear about don't seem to change much..

So whose been spending tax payers hard earned dosh on 19 trips abroad, business class travel and staying in top hotels. In total a sum of £275,000 over two years? I give you a clue. It wasn't the foreign secretary or any of the royals or even an elected representative......

Bloom

Trump creating too much bad blood... Attacking Zelensky,,,, Doing this its also a defacto attack on the European alliance.. Not a smart move that one..

Rapidly turning into Billy no mates...

Bros

JP Morgan reserch

In their global outlook scenarios makes interesting reading...

"The outlook appears dimmer in Europe, where the economy could grow at a sluggish sub-potential pace due to heightened trade uncertainty. “The euro area is likely to be the weakest link in the global outlook, and we have a bias for long duration in intermediate EUR versus USD yields,” said Francis Diamond, head of European Rate Strategy at J.P. Morgan"

Also under the global economy list the factors that if happen could push the chance of a recession by 2026 to between 45% and 55%

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/outlook/market-outlook

My own view. They need to turn the telescope around recession looming much nearer... Trade tariffs if enacted do no one any good. If Starmer is set on continuing the conflict that also very negative impact...

Troajan

"cities/uses 1000 lb glide bombs and ballistic missile and drones,tanks/air force rockets"..

Those glide bombs bigger than that Bros plus the thermite and thermobaric weapons...

This is standard Russian military tactics. Is a not good that is for sure and the damage is immense.

Not a tactic the West and its allies would consider? A war crime? One war Gaza..

Bloomer

Indeed this and the last Govts greatest sin was its attack on free speech.

Not even Orwell predicted things would get like this...

I have no doubt that we seeing people locked up or harassed because of this. Journalist Alison Pearson however is not backing down...👌

Not only this but looking for a job ? Now there is another hornets nest...

LTI .

You not like Russian culture.?.. Been a while since they were in UK but Bolshoi ballerinas are something else...

BB

"DT yes Russia isn't perfect, but neither are we"...

That is the bottom line...

Who are / is the greatest threat to our way of life, culture and heritage. ?

My question is if ever push came to shove in a conflict whose flag will people rally under..

Uptheladder

You have made some very valid points this morning. Respect.

But look at Africa. The Digital Silk Road as one example...

Also Wang Yi he visit Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Namibia, and Nigeria. Chad plays a key role in China’s effort to secure global supply chains of critical minerals in the high-tech and clean energy sectors. Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). Namibia is China’s major maritime partner on Africa’s Atlantic seaboard, where the largest concentration of China’s port developments are located. Nigeria represents Chinese expanded engagements in the Economic Community of West African States, which will inaugurate its new Chinese-built and financed headquarters.

What Uk do....Headline in Telegraph 2 week ago..

"Angela Rayner accused of ignoring brief with trip to Ethiopia"....

Probably talk about reparations....

West missing a big trick...