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Stated in the fundraise RNS of 13th Feb 25 Lanstead were issued 50m shares with a 7 month sharing agreement May - Nov (and a few other little bits). If they are all sold up by the end of Nov then they are selling around 300k - 350k shares per trading day on average. Yesterday's volume was 20m. The lowest daily volume in Sept has been 6m (today looks similar). Just to give an idea of how big their selling influence is.

Warrants will inevitably be exercised at some point - better for IMM to be now as the cash in the bank is more useful now than after an upfront payment has been received. Like the decisions to sell, though, if you believe in P140 and the incoming deal then why sell / exercise warrants until the deal is announced. That said, people's individual circumstances might make sense to realise some profit immediately. Also, bear in mind, it's needless risk and cash outflow to exercise warrants just to hold. More sense to wait and only exercise when you're ready to sell. IMO

So, presumably then, all those several tens of millions of unexercised warrants tells the market it wasn't the top. Logically speaking.

"we're talking about a technology that is going to change the autoimmune space, and I say that without hesitation, AND THAT IS BEING RECOGNISED BY THE PHARMA COMPANIES". That's a big indicator of lucrative deals to me.

Tim has done well in these interviews, the SP has jumped accordingly and Lanstead are paying roughly £10k - £20k every day more into IMMs bank account because of it. Time well spent if you ask me. Interviews with media outlets with greater viewership would, of course, be even better. I'm quite sure Tim knows that.

Dear Astute Investor VikR, thanks for sharing your thoughts and information in recent weeks in a helpful, respectful and considered way and explaining why you think what you do.

Regarding Buy Out vs Licence deal, both seem feasible at present but there's a few arguments that point to it being a licencing deal...

1. Tim has only ever talked about licencing deals, and in some detail and says he's done a few (maybe it would be poor form to talk about buy out deals?)

2. Perhaps the IMM leadership would discourage a buy out, considering the impact on their careers, or just excited to see their work through to reaching patients (how feasible is a hostile buy out i.e. without management support?)

3. To buy all of IMM would also mean buying the rest of the portfolio which has lucrative potential. Any buying price would have to factor in their value, (considering potential and risk).

I assume Lanstead are doing what they've always done, sell a set number of shares each month using the proceeds to pay IMM the monthly contribution and pocket a cut, and they will have sold up by the end of Nov when the arrangement expires. If they sell more they risk the price being higher the next month and they don't have enough shares left to sell at that higher price and make a loss. I think they're happy with making their risk-free % cut and will treat the 2p warrants as a bonus and exercise when they feel is the right time. I doubt that's now but, as they probably know more than we do, interesting to keep an eye on. Also, after Nov when they've sold up there won't be that constant downward pressure on the SP (admittedly, it's being swamped by volumes at the moment). Good luck everyone, regardless of your strategy (long term hold for me - maybe top slice after deal announced).

Sorry, it was suggested earlier that if IMM had £150m in the bank from a up front payment then 10p would be a fair share price. I have an accounting background. If a company has, amongst its assets, £150m in the bank and no significant liabilities then the company must be worth at least £150m. There’s no room for disagreements on valuations or potential, it’s £150m cold hard cash in the bank which, obviously, is worth exactly £150m. With 500m shares in issue that’s 30p a share just there. The markets are not so inefficient to allow a company to be bought for £60m when it has £150m in cash. Sorry, but no way. Illogical. “I’ll buy your £150m for £60m”? That won’t happen. The demand for shares in that situation would push the price up until it balances out. It would probably gap up straight away. Thats either a basic calculation error, a misunderstanding of markets or a deliberate mislead.

P140 "will blow all the other drugs out the market" because (i) safety - certainly safe, there's loads of data to support that vs side effects in current treatments (ii) Efficacy - Type M "precision diagnostics... we absolutely know for certain that those patients will respond to P140" vs not great in current treatments.

Re-committed to deal in 2025, but certainly not within a week. Expect (probably) it to take a typical shape of up-front payments, fund any agreed trials, milestone payments based on trial milestones and sales milestones, plus royalties. P140 is "superior" to drugs that have been subject to other recent lucrative ($1b+ excluding royalties) deals in auto-immune space. 20yrs is an attractive length of patent time for partners "They will earn an awful lot of money". "You should expect a good deal". Only talking about licencing deals. No mention of buyout.

However

No mention of Avion and where the deal with them fits in. Also CSO addressed my question from yesterday about whether P140 will cure patient after sometime of treatment and no more P140 is needed, or whether they will need to take P140 ongoing - they don't know the answer to that. This makes it difficult to estimate the potential future cashflows which ordinarily forms the basis for estimating how much P140 is worth to a big Pharma.

Likely Pathway (my own thoughts)

Patent now filed - agree deal(s) - conduct necessary trials - achieve regulatory approval - off to market. My guess is 4 - 7 years to get to market. With a finite patent, the eventual partner will not want to hang around.

Here's the vid link again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hce5NLzsMR8

In it, 13:00 - 13:45, CSO Dr Sébastien Goudreau refers to how much of autoimmune sufferers are type M - it varies across indications but type M is the 'major' group in some indication including SLE. Lower in others.

With patent filed, the next step is the licencing deal and Tim has previously pointed to deals in the auto-immune space including up front cash of up to £1bil. At £0.5bil in the bank account the company ought to be valued at at least this, as it's cash in the bank. And that's around £1 a share. Then consider likely future cashflows from milestone payments and royalties...

How much of 'the market' is fully aware of IMM's position and potential though? I'm not selling any until we're well through the next clinical trial.

Just a thought - aside from the % of autoimmune sufferers that are type M, does anyone know if a 'super-responder', having achieved remission, will need to continue their treatment to keep their immune system normalised / in balance, or whether they can reduce or stop? Seems a big question to me as a patient could generate 1 year of sales or up to 50 yrs.

Also, we've previously seen short-term bumps in the share price when Tim does his interviews - if anyone is interested...

Although I don't doubt big pharma's first priority is profits, and I have no reason to question that they buy and shelve assets that threaten existing income streams, I don't see it as a big risk here. Pharma is a competitive market and P140 (if it is what we think it is) will improve the profits of most companies, particular those currently without strong involvement in auto-immune areas. IMM will want royalties in any deal, which means sales, and I'm sure they want this to reach patients too after all the work they've put in.

Very positive interview - obstacle removed for deals - big pharma says it's special and now has the confirmation they need etc, but Tim's comments around 36:45 - 36:55 struck me, referring to 'Lupizor' in the past tense as if it no longer exists as a brand, and there is no mention of 'Lupizor' in any RNS for at least a year. Could it be that the trials for Lupizor and CIDP are abandoned, including the Avion deal, and they're starting again for a whopping new deal for P140 in it's entirety? Tim also talks about it being the partner company's decisions as to which auto-immune conditions to prioritise. Perhaps this is also why there's been no mention of Avion or P3 trials recently. They're going for the big bucks instead and have now provided the big pharma with the proof they asked for. I think now is time for bidding war to start in earnest. A signed deal for P140 still some weeks away, is my guess. DYOR of course. I'm just trying to join the dots.

Lordloadsoflolly - that seems fair. Unlike the breakthrough research of 9th Jan, this doesn't expand IMM's medical capabilities, but it might (I'm speculating again) prove to be a significant step towards securing a licencing deal. For most of us here, it's just confirming something we thought was true already (including IMM). But I daresay Big Pharma employ greater scrutiny, and can do so after signing an NDA. I wonder if they'll let me see the data if I sign an NDA...

I agree Sushi. It reads to me like IMM has always strongly believed in the MOA but 'belief' is not good enough for Big Pharma. Perhaps, when pressed by Big Pharma IMM couldn't sufficiently evidence it - now they can. This COULD be the deal-maker if the research convinces Big Pharma. Also noting, 'Proof' is a rather absolute and dangerous word to use in science, rather than 'supports' or 'provides evidence for'. Must be clear cut.

Sorry to read of your health condition, Sushi.

Good morning, so the breakthrough research supports IMM's hypothesis that P140 works on ALL autoimmune diseases. To get a sense of scale I've asked ChatGPT for the 10 most common. It gave me this (I thought I'd share for interest)...

"Autoimmune diseases occur when the body’s immune system mistakenly attacks its own tissues, leading to inflammation and damage in various organs. Globally, it’s estimated that autoimmune diseases affect approximately 5% of the population, with a higher prevalence in women.

1. Hashimoto’s Thyroiditis

• Global Prevalence: 2% (~150 million people)

• Description: The immune system attacks the thyroid, leading to hypothyroidism, fatigue, weight gain, and depression.

2. Rheumatoid Arthritis

• Global Prevalence: 0.5%-1% (~40-80 million people)

• Description: Chronic inflammation of the joints causing pain, swelling, and potential joint destruction.

3. Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE)

• Global Prevalence: 20-150 per 100,000 (~5-10 million people)

• Description: A systemic condition where the immune system attacks tissues, leading to skin, joint, and organ damage.

4. Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

• Global Prevalence: 5-10% of diabetes cases (~35 million people)

• Description: The immune system destroys insulin-producing cells in the pancreas, resulting in high blood sugar.

5. Multiple Sclerosis

• Global Prevalence: ~2.5 million people

• Description: The immune system attacks the protective covering of nerve fibers, causing muscle weakness, vision issues, and coordination problems.

6. Graves’ Disease

• Global Prevalence: 1.2% (~90 million people)

• Description: The immune system causes hyperthyroidism, leading to symptoms like rapid heartbeat, weight loss, and bulging eyes.

7. Celiac Disease

• Global Prevalence: 1% (~75 million people)

• Description: Ingestion of gluten damages the small intestine, causing digestive issues and malabsorption of nutrients.

8. Psoriasis

• Global Prevalence: 2-3% (~150-200 million people)

• Description: The immune system accelerates skin cell turnover, causing red, scaly patches on the skin.

9. Sjögren’s Syndrome

• Global Prevalence: 0.1-4% (~8 million people)

• Description: Affects moisture-producing glands, leading to dry mouth, eyes, and potential organ damage.

10. Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD)

• Global Prevalence: 0.3% (~23 million people)

• Description: Includes Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis, causing chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract with symptoms like abdominal pain and diarrhea.

These conditions vary widely in their manifestations and severity. Early diagnosis and appropriate management are crucial to controlling symptoms and improving quality of life."

Totally agree, Wigwammer. Considering the radio silence on the new P3 trial - the new research announced on 9th Jan will allow IMM to better diagnose patients with autoimmune conditions and identify those who are likely to respond to P140. This capability will obviously boost the chances of a successful P3 (by recruiting patients with the bio-markers that are likely to respond). The language Tim chooses to use in the RNS and interviews suggests to me that they now know how to do that, but there is still more work to do to have the capability to roll out for a patient recruitment drive, and perhaps would warrant tweaking the trial design - hence taking a long time until first dosing. Pure speculation on my part but seems realistic and sensible, and would mean the start of the P3 trial isn't imminent.

Furthermore, is it a requirement to release an RNS advising the trial will start later than originally anticipated? If not, and you think stating so would depress the SP, and your monthly income from Lanstead depends on the SP, then in the interest of the company you might choose to stay quiet. Just my own meandering thoughts.

In the event of positive news and the SP going to 50p in, say, August, Lanstead will have to pay IMM loads of cash in their monthly payment (1000% of the benchmark is it?) but they will sell some shares at 50p to pay for it, and probably a few more to make a handsome profit (bought at 3.75p). I think Lanstead, like all shareholders, make more money when SP is higher, but their sharing agreement means they are protected if the SP goes down. It's win-win for them, they just win more when SP is high.

It's been mentioned that Lanstead do this deal deliberately to depress the SP, but I disagree. The selling they do frequently puts downward pressure on the price, of course, but I see it more a regrettable consequence than a deliberate ploy, and it is hoped that the effect of positive news will blow it out the water like it did on 9th Jan. And the new, much higher, number of shares for Lanstead to move each month pushes this more to the binary extremes. Either Tim is genuinely convinced he's got the upcoming news flow to blow this out the water, or the SP will plummet with Lanstead selling so many each month without the additional buyers. That's my take on it anyway. The enormous potential of this drug and new-to-the-industry diagnostic capabilities, as well as Tim's interviews, gives me belief in big success for a long-term hold strategy.

Hi folks, this is my first ever post, though I've read this board when things have gotten interesting since I first bought shares in 2017. I'm a long-term holder. I like to hear people's thoughts, deductions and interpretations of info and insights into the industry. Anyway, a couple of my thoughts on Lanstead...

The deal is for Lanstead to pay IMM each month based on the share price at that time. The sensible strategy for Lanstead, and perhaps the plan all along, is to sell a set amount each month regardless of the price. They give IMM their bit and pocket the rest. To sell loads now at this uplift would create a risk of the SP going higher still in coming months and they don't have the shares to cover their commitment to IMM and thus make a loss. Their gradual selling so far, and absence of a TR-1 so far this year, would support that. The upshot of this is we can expect this constant gradual selling pressure to continue until June - Aug time when the deal expires.

For the warrants, they expire in 2031. Although Lanstead (and Alora) are now able to exercise them, they would only do so at the point they want to sell them, otherwise it's running the risk of a share-price collapse after making an upfront payment - and it is totally needless. So I don't expect IMM to receive this £1.9m cash injection anytime soon. But, in not exercising them yet it implies that Lanstead believe the SP will move higher - so there's comfort / confidence to be had in that.