focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Thanks for that TWT.
I still don't believe that most if not all of these share tipsters have got Burfords future earnings correct / especially " this " year's earnings right !!! . Burfords own business model indicated earnings of over well over $600 million dollars this year and per year without any input from the YPF CASE, and that was without the current coming pent up case loads getting delivered this year, we could easily add on another $300 million or more this year, taking our earnings to $900 million dollars before running cost of around $150 million are taken out, that would work out at $ 3,42c or £2.75p Stirling in earnings this year, though our share price shouldn't really reflect this amount as possibly $300 million of that amount is from our pent up case load and not repeatable in the following years, though it should overall cause or create in general a great enthusiasm for Burfords shares,
The YPF case, I'm hoping that Argentina is correct in their analysis of their own potential pay out of $8.4 billion dollars to burford, surely they should be the one's who should actually know best , as they are the ones who have to officially inform their own parliament and public alike, I'm hoping judge Preska will deliver a very substantial surety appeal Bond here, even in the billion dollar range, with a potentially award of over $16 billion dollars, surly a billion dollar bond would be needed here to ensure Argentina won't abuse the potential lengthy appeals process,
Now I think if Argentina can be made to post such a bond then it's a kind of insurance policy for Burford to then go off and start negotiating a full or partial sell off of the settlement award to 33rd parties , they don't have to wait on the lengthy appeals process of 1 to 3 years. The reason I now believe they will mostly cash in now is that it they can even get their hands on even $1 billion dollars then getting that used in litigation cases ASP can bring back another $300 million dollars or more from that early settlement money, Burford can make it pay and work much better than the banks or institutions that would pay us now, and that could easily happen this year if a big bond is posted by Argentina, a really big bond is essentially a insurance policy for anyone to pay Burford a upfront payment on our settlement award, and that could potentially could easily come as soon as this year, that would send Burfords earnings obviously massively higher here. So most of these share tipsters estimates could be massively well out here in so many ways, the potential here could very easily play out with my reasonable thinking or estimates , if Argentina is made to pay a large appeals bond , then expect my
theory to play out like this at some level, Burford will move fast here, whatever way this gets cut then Burfords shares should be substantially higher here.
Also a big thanks to Sebastian Maril for all his excellent Twitter postings.
P
Well would you want to put in to these shares say $50 million dollars without any exit strategy or guarantees of dividends ? remember this companies main 82+% share holder just took a massive dividend last year , so is that because they did not want the company to pay out any dividend for several years after delisting ? and to put off anyone from holding onto their shares when they try to make any kind of offer to the remaining shareholders and telling them the company wouldn't be paying out any more dividends for several more years even after delisting, that's the posion pill I mentioned in my first post,
The decent thing for the management to do was to just buyout the remaining shareholders at a reasonable price right now, or maybe this could be a ploy for shareholders to accept a very basic offer now or they will still delist, wouldn't anyone bight their hand off for £2.50p or £3.00 now ? and I don't mean buyers at this low price. The original price. Also remember the management have all that free money they paid out to themselves from that big fat special strange dividend, surely that money would strangely enough buyout the 18% of the shares they don't already own, nudge nudge wink wink , when you own over 82% of a companies shares the temptation must be enormous to get the whole company on the cheap. So now we have some questions and accompanying answers. Only food for thought,
Buy or sell with extreme caution here and good luck to everyone.
I'm not a holder here.I
I've never ever seen such a company scenario as this one, it's extraordinary , over 82% of the shares are owned by the management, I strongly suspect the management will very easily take this private by virtue of their overwhelming ownership of that share percentage, so why would they do that then ? That's the question in people's minds, did they put the company up for sale just to find out how high any bids would come in at ??? and maybe allow the management to say the bids were not high enough with the excellent trading right now, and then they say we will just take it private after a year or so, and after it goes private the management are then free from market regulations regarding the price they want to accept for a management buyout of the outstanding shares ,? How convenient , as I've seen numerous times before the management can offer much less money for the outstanding shares, shareholders have no choice but to accept what they offer or just get treated even worse until they do eventually sell up. you can do that when you own over 82% of the shares in
a delisted company, though for anyone with a strong stomach it could also possibly and only possibly prove rewarding if you bought now and accepted the" possible" higher dividend in a delisted company, though you would be at the mercy of its management and any dividend policies, I suspect that big bonus dividend payed out last year with borrowing put onto the balance sheet , might have been a poision pill against a ordinary out of the blue cash offer for the company, or cash advance for its management to help take the company completely private after it's delisting. Either way it's a very speculative situation here, at this price it could be good if you can wait for a year or two for the management to make its offer for the outstanding shares, and if not maybe it might pay a excellent dividend, though nobody's going to convince me that the management are decent people and they didn't know all this would seriously and financial hurt innocent investors, they obviously don't care, so if they don't care right now will they even care about the remaining shareholders who wouldn't sell out here and stick in a delisted private company ???. So many questions and not enough answers , though on the balance of probability I would say it's possibly worth a "we" punt to stay in after delisting and see if it makes more than today's share price.
PDYOR, Very Highly speculative, GLA
A nice we recap of everything, and also showing how completely wrong carson block was with his accusations and attack on burford.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tilDGXDS45s&t=612s
Could I have jumped the gun there, surely is that around or just over the time that Argentina have to decide if they want to appeal this case anyway ,? and the damages would only get decided when the proper witnesses got assembled for judge preska anyway ? Well whatever this is all about , that $1.2 billion dollars is to coincidental to ignore under all these current circumstances, it's made me a lot happier tonight.
GLA
That's more than interesting sebastian maril, and thank you sir for waiting and getting that brilliant information for us all here, and thank you TWT and mrmarroc,
This looks extremely promising indeed, maybe just maybe Burford have offered them a excellent no appeals deal to close this whole thing down early, it normally takes around 3 months to conclude these types of deals and that's fast, so I'm absolutely delighted that this could possibly get sorted very soon. Let cross our fingers , just brilliant news, thank you again to everyone and especially Sebastian maril. Can't wait to see how the market interprets this on Monday morning.
GLA
If we could only find out what a reasonable or average surety Bond would be for our settlement award, I myself was thinking about $50 or $100 million , though I've no clue about where to start there,
Argentina needs large amounts of money to pay out to creditors and debtors.
Though wouldn't it be nice to go to bed thinking that all that money was for just our surety bond alone , and knowing what that would do for the market's confidence in Burford and it's shares. The timing is excellent if they have been told today that any surety Bond would inevitably be around that figure, and with that size of a surety Bond completely relaxing Burfords BOD about getting a decent pay out, and maybe even encouraging Burford to even sit tight for another 18 months of appeals to collect the full amount. It's only a guessing game here though the timing is far to coincidental to ignore.
GLA. Only food for thought here.
Still no news from that court, maybe that's a good sign, in the meantime this should make nice reading and just out today.
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/9-opportunities-in-litigation-finance-defaulted-debt-and-expropriation-claims/
Probably today we will hear something, though Argentina have the legal right to ask for a 30 day extension before submitting there answers to the course of actions that they want to pursue, IE appeal , negotiate with Burford and hopefully after we get a settlement award figure, the setting of a appeal award court bond amount etc, most likely we face another stalling tactic from the other side in some way or another.
Though a settlement figure would keep most of us here happy for a we while, I would guess we’d here some kind of news from the court today, though not necessarily during our own trading hours here.
Anyone please feel free to correct me on anything I’ve written here.
PDYOR. GLA.
Two seperate pools of shares are traded in each country, though on occasions the market maker's can electronically transfer there shares either way to help for liquidity, there is quite often temporary price differences,
And no a American buying in America won't be buying from UK citizens. I hope that helps a little, I'm also open to any corrections here.
GLA
Well jammyC a unexpected honest question deserved a honest answer, I'm baffled why you think 36000 shares is unexpected news from me, there's quite a lot here that have many more shares than my holding, save your £100 quid for FFC 's coffin ,and remember to put it in his big mouth LOL. And good night now jammyC.
GLA
FFC well you hold on for that £100 and tell your family to let me know when your funeral is, a I'll put that £100 quid into your coffin for you, because that's the only £100 you'll see here in your life time, but good luck, stranger things have happened in share buying.
GLA.
Beech2 How many shares I hold is something I have never revealed to anyone no matter what company shares I've ever held, though your question seems frank to the point and above all honest, so I hold 36000 shares in burford, though don't ask me about the percentages of all my other shares I hold, I simply don't know, as they are in numerous companies and other share dealing companies and platforms, even one that isn't even on a platform LOL / long story. I wouldn't sell them as I promised myself I wouldn't no matter what, good long term very safe solid holdings.
SEC, I'm not concerned there at all, the SEC should really have every litigation funder in its office to establish a fair reasonable accounting standard, it's never going to please everyone out there, especially Carson Block !!!
This big win on our YPF case should backup Burfords modelling around fair accounting practices,
Your purchase of Burfords shares at £10.30 wasn't a bad move, just untimely in the context that they were much higher and will eventually go much higher than you initially paid, dare I say it you'll probably thriple what you paid in just a few years or more, that's overall a excellent investment if not a somewhat longer stressful investment, any good investor could have made exactly the same decisions there ok.
As far as the investment criteria goes here, I'd recommend just trying to work out what the company can make in very basic earnings and one eye on any ordinary debt levels ,and multiply the earnings by 10 PE, and anything over that becomes a great bonus, I'm genuinely not hung up about getting a 15 time PE at all, if we get it brilliant, if not no problems.
I tell you what I think, I'll tell you what I'm even doing, but I won't tell anyone to go out and buy on my say so, that's just crazy, everyone should trust in their own personal judgement after DTOR.
As JammyC essentially says, only buy what you can afford and live with, / stress and getting your sleep, and yes 55000 shares would feel like being a millionaire to smaller investors. To the wealthy it's just digits on your statements until you lose it somewhere.
PDYOR, GLA.
TWT I'm guessing your not already a millionaire, though that size of a holding should enable you to become a millionaire in little over a year or so, for me ,it's there to easily see ok, the shares I've held and sold that if held would have made me a multi multi millionaire, so please sell any amount after great consideration , like myself you've done all the hard work, and now it's time to sit back and rake in the money over a earnings enhancing few years,
Nobody knows for sure what lies ahead for any company and it's fortunes, though this is as clear a picture as I would ever want from a large monetary share investment, Sebastian maril can only speak from his extensive journalistic experience and knowledge, so I'm always at pains to even challenge his excellent Twitter statements,
I will say this through , I could be wrong here, it's just that Sebastian stated recently that Judge Preska wouldn't give a financial judgement to the actual amount of any award, to stop burford instantly trying to collect that award, judge Preska
might not have been able to give our actual award amount because in getting that specific information she would then have to approach the Argentinean council / lawyer's/ YPF company/ or political establishment, to approach them about what formulation/ exact time frames / dates etc should be used or arrived at, and that would alert them to the knowledge that she was definitely calling a judgement against them, then they would be privileged to that secret multi billion dollar judgement outcome against them before anyone else, she simply couldn't give that information out before she's ready, so now she's had to delay that judgement award until she can freely gather all that information from the Argentine side before she decides on the actual formulation used and size of our award . Thus this settlement amount waiting game.. I cannot see judge Preska manipulate this court case because she wants to stop Burford from instantly chasing after our settlement award.
Right or wrong it's Only my thoughts around this specific issue.
On the laws of probability and on the bare facts alone , I'd say Burfords fortunes and share price will easily more than double in or around the next 12 months .
PDYOR, GLA
I guess not , I put £16 to £25, I think you wanted £100 you stated before , now I wonder who will be nearest here ?
OMG £100 really , I guess a broken clock is right twice a day as you keep reminding everyone here, everyone can put whatever they want into their post here, unless they are being a di*k Head* or abusive to other Posters , FFC mind your own business and avoid anyone you don't agree with here, it's that simple and easy. Just Block if you don't like what you read. Respect others the way you want respected yourself. It's not rocket science.
GLA
Burfords share price should be around or over £16 Stirling this year and also without any input from our YPF case,
and also without any input from our delayed pent up pandemic case load,
Our basic with no extras at all *** earnings should come in at over £1.64p
I honestly can't state this enough here, these types of opportunities don't come to often here, Burfords modelling indicates this basic earnings outcome, the number of case's to be heard or concluded here this year indicates even a much higher outcome than £1.64p, Burfords YPF case win and last history indicates a very substantial possible partial early selling off of this big litigation case win, every possible great indicator that any investor would want is right here to see, and yet our share price is unbelievably sitting at a give away price of just over £10 I honestly can't believe in this situation I'm looking at, at the end of this year I'm due a exceptionally large amount of money from a family will bequest , and honestly I'd put every single penny into this share situation with burford right now, I'm that confident in my very basic share price prediction for Burfords shares to at least double in value this year, all my sums are very conservative here and yet the basic earnings outcome puts these shares at a much higher price without that YPF case win,
What does it take to show new investors here, that this fantastic opportunity is just sitting and waiting here to be capitalised upon, if Burfords share price was £25 in the next 12 months I wouldn't be surprised at all here.
Please DYOR, only my genuinely held belief, GLA.
Yes totally agree about that opening ok , though I will be absolutely and genuinely astounded if Burfords shares are not at or above £20 when our full years earnings come out and total up here. And that's the beauty of studying and understanding Burfords true underlying potential here,
PDYOR, GLA,