Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I'm surprised the Argentine government just didn't steal a 757 plane off their own national airline, if it's good enough for YPF and it's shareholders, oh forgot they can't take it off their own people !!! just innocent foreign investors.
Let's cross our fingers that tomorrow brings a much higher share price, and also to get that American borrowing ceiling lifted.
DYOR, GLA.
Wow, I didn't realise you could purchase a second hand 757 plane for $25 million dollars , though it shows you that Argentina's president is being careful with the country's tightly held dollars, and yet the UK prime minister wouldn't order a 757 plane for the UK because of the perception of extravagant expenditure in office. I don't think Burford will go after that specific government plane just yet, let's Give diplomacy a try first !?. we've to much money to collect from Argentina's coffers, they could create $8.4 billion dollars worth of sovereign bonds instantly after its been approved by their legislators ,with only ! the interest payments to worry about , easier said than done. They will have to stump up the nearing surety Bond money , now that's going to be fun for them to sort that one out, consider they were scraping the barrel to purchase that 757 plane for themselves, I guess it's sovereign bond time then. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Argentine present ask the Biden administration for some kind of leniency from the American courts and surety Bond payment.
I think they definitely should reduce it , maybe by a few hundred pounds.
DYOR, GLA.
Yes I agree with you and other opinions here EXTRADER , When Argentina treats the international community like they have no rights then they just make themselves look like a banana republic, and a place that no respectable company could even do business in, it's like something out of Vladimir Putin's totalitarian state, I will do whatever I want and to hell with everyone and anyone who disagrees with me. That one extremely bad move to nationalise YPF like that done incaluable damage to Argentina's reputation and to scare any other investors away from investing into anything that's associated with that country. It actually would have costs tens of billions in lost foreign investment into that country over that particular time period to this present day.
So Argentina this is your big chance to show joe Biden / America , and of course the rest of the world that Argentina is a place that can be commercially trusted because your government's will respect all your legal obligations from around the world bar Russia.
And as TWT states it is good to show how much in trouble Argentina is, one of the main and biggest problems with Argentina is the stability of the Peso, and that can't be rectified until Argentina stops behaving like a banana republic with its cavalier attitude to the foreign commercial corporate world, how else are you going to get foreign investment into the country, I'm hoping that Argentina will be grateful for America's influence with the world bank in them getting better access to those billions of loans for Argentina, with the pay back being Argentina should respect the American court system and any unfavourable judgements against Argentina. As I've already stated the other day I'm convinced that Argentina may have to deal with this bad judgement against it earlier than it would like to do, and possibly even maybe in the next few months.
Whatever way this YPF case plays out we can be sure that Burford will still turn this current year into the best year ever in just ordinary earnings terms, it certainly has me excited about every earnings period.
DYOR, GLA.
Excellent post xtrader, though I think you've misunderstood that part of that small sentence, taking my post
In its totality I'm actually backing up what your actually emphasising in your own post, there's no defending Argentina here at all, what I'm actually saying is that Argentina scored a own goal against itself by having to legally admit to the actual liability of the YPF case, and in doing that it essentially told preskas court where they themselves thought that timeline of re-nationalization took place. and placing their own liability where Burford wants them too. It's like someone admiting they are guilty to the police and then a judge has to formally put them through the court process to officially find them guilty of what they've previously admitted too, for me it's that clear a scenario.
There's no guarantees that it will turn out this way, though it's as close as it gets to telling Burfords that they owe Burford $16.8 billion dollars.
Argentina is a fantastic country with a abundance of natural resources, though it's crooked political system has let it's own people and commercial enterprises down spectacularly, thus the mess it's in now and indeed for a very long.
So EXTRADER we are essentially saying the same thing but just in different ways.
DYOR, GLA.
The actual settlement award amount ? This is what I'm going on and why,
Argentina themselves penceled in the $8.4 billion dollars for their own accounting liabilities to their own people and legislators, they are are not lying here, and that is after their own expected full award amount is reduced by the normal 50% early reduction, from the original $16.8 billion dollar award , my point being is that Argentina and their own lawyers themselves have studied ever part of this case and by their own obligatory financial admissions they have told us the true actual amount of damages to be paid, so that's why I'm essentially personally bypassing this nearing award amount trial, because if anybody should know this elusive award amount figure then surely it should be Argentina themselves, and by their own freely arrived at legally bound compulsory admission. it's about the only honest thing that Argentina has done during this whole legal process. and because they had to comply with there own legal requirements and accounting processes.
DYOR, GLA
The problem I have with the full paying of any surety Bond is that Argentina would find it close to impossible or extremely difficult to post a bond worth $16+ billion dollars of a award right now or even at any future or past time period, even a $8 billion dollar surety Bond would have them struggling right now, so this is why it could work in Burfords favour, because Argentina can't afford paying $16+ billion let alone $8+ billion, so this financial conundrum might only be solved by coming to a early this year agreement with Burford around a staged multi year agreed settlement plan, if Argentina don't want this, then they may have to find the full surety Bond money right away anyway , Argentina's only get out of jail card may be that it can only ask the American government for some type of surety Bond dispensation from the USA courts, such is the massive amount of this potential surety bond, failing that then Argentina really has to seriously negotiate this right now in the next few months and avoid finding the billions in surety Bond money right now, so that seems their very difficult choice right now, if I where them my choice would be just paying a reasonable lump sum now and then a staged payments plan , with Burford probably choosing to sell this arrangement for a reduced price to 3rd parties as Burford themselves can make this money work hard and pay us over those years and offsetting the loss from selling the full award in the first place. that could work for us and I imagine work for Argentina.
Just my thoughts around the potential options here.
DYOR, GLA.
That was very informative renegade , thank you for that information, it really helps in determining a lot of the surety Bond issues, so essentially the Argentine side might be hit with a $16 billion+ dollar surety Bond + upfront interest for the appeal year's, that's music to my ears, somehow I just can't see the surety Bond going anywhere near that level of even half that level, though what would I know other than what your link states, I'm assuming that may ordinarily relate to ordinary big awards and maybe not the billion dollar super awards, a long time ago I tried asking Google for some answers around surety Bond amounts and got nothing decent or reliable to go on, but your link renegade has given me heart to think that it might still be a multi billion dollar surety Bond that has to be posted, so thank you again for that renegade. I'm really looking forward to finding out the size of our surety Bond amount, because who knows if it's sky high as in $16 billion + dollars, then who knows maybe just maybe Argentina might even consider doing Burford a early agreed settlement offer amount, in as much as Burford would probably only sell all or part of the award to 3rd parties anyway. So they'd be doing us a favour and we'd be doing them a favour, because the large surety Bond money would have to be Posted anyway.
This is all just food for thought, GLA, and good night everyone.
GLA
With the obvious huge size of a our award TWT it's difficult to find any comparisons to go on, I was just thinking that maybe when the award get into the billion dollar category then maybe there is some kind of markdown , IE, if the award was say $1 billion dollars then the surety Bond might be say $150 million dollars and if the award was say $2 billion dollars then the surety Bond might be say $250 million dollars instead of $300 million dollars, if you see what I mean, there might be a increasing reduction as the size of the award goes up, or maybe not, I've nothing to go on, so if anyone has anything to go on then please enlighten us here, and that includes that brilliant journalist MR Sebastian Maril.
GLA
Bluewiley it's a interesting question, can Burford seize the Argentinean government stake in YPF, I suspect no, or someone somewhere by now would have said the could, I actually thought that this is a interesting question , Argentina essentially steals your YPF shares and calls it a re-nationalization without any compensation, with the now legal owner / Burford seemingly not even able to take those YPF shares back again to sell on the open market and still be able to ask Argentina for the rest of the award amount, but Burford seemingly can seize a Argentine owned war ship or other financial interest from around the world, through mainly in America, but we seemingly can't get our own YPF shares back again, it seems ridiculous at best and commercially disgraceful at worst, I'm confident that Burford already has a well researched plan to seize certain assets up should Argentina have any reluctance to pay out on this soon to be historic settlement amount,
This soon to be announced settlement amount will certainly give the Argentine government a massive embarrassing problem to sort out, if they take away then they must pay it back again, it's that simple, the poor people of that country are paying for a really bad governing past administration, and there's no need to it,
As I've said before my eye's are on the hopefully big surety Bond , wouldn't you think that J. Preska would make this bond proportionate to the massive size of the settlement award, though because of the size of the award then Preska may have to scale it back to accommodate the Argentine position of having very little dollar current reserves , I'm hoping it's at least $500 million dollars, or would it be more like $250 million dollars, I haven't a clue here to be honest.
But one thing I have clue about is that Burfords definitely in the money here big time, how and when we get paid out is another interesting question. Burfords team have done a truly fantastic job to get this incredibly difficult complex case to this winning stage of litigation, so collecting the winnings should be a walk in the park for their own settlement collection staff. Remember burford hired mercenaries to go aboard that Rusand seize that billionaires super yacht to collect a UK court award,
I wouldn't be one bit surprised if Burford have already decided on how much of the award percentage wise they are potentially selling to 3rd parties. These shares will fly on any more good news. £20+ no problem .
Please DYOR, GLA.
Yes Preska is quite clear that her judgment was arrived at on a solid sound overall and overarching full legal basis.
So it's just a matter of allowing Argentina and the court to arrive at the precise award amount, plus allowing Argentina their legal right to a formal appeals process application.
A big thanks to Sebastian Maril , TWT , renegade here,
A surprising fall in our shares again, though the whole market is wobbly because of the fear around the American borrowing ceiling, and a American payments default, it's actually a appalling situation to put the world's financial markets into, playing chicken with interest rates and ordinary peoples lives, there should be legislation to stop these types of things happening and to allow any elected government to govern freely and properly.
It does seem more likely now of a soft world recession with a increasing of Burfords in take of case loads and accompanying higher profits.
Please DYOR, GLA.
I think that Burford should monitor the overall running cost as much as humanly possible, I remember when the ordinary running cost were around $90 million dollars and very quickly and without any noticeable reason the funny cost were up to $150 m dollars per year, I remember thinking how did that jump so much, I just assumed Burford hired loads of more lawyers and beefed up it's asset recovery side of the business, I'm just accepting that what they needed they've simple got the company , and that cost plenty of money, also a lot of people including lawyer's have been poached by rivals and that in itself also increases the wage levels , so that May factor into the extra overall cost , also Burfords bought plenty of shares before they jumped well above the £6 level, that was a smart move by the company to save money on the employee remuneration plan, I guess overall you have to invest in the business to oil the machinery in the business to. Bring in hundreds of millions worth of business and accompanying profits. With Bogart and molot owning such substantial amounts of our shares then I'm sure they have the financial incentive to keep cost down to a reasonable level. Though cost are bound to go up as Burford grows it business model around the world, India is starting to embrace litigation funding now , so maybe that huge population and country could be another big opportunity here. From what I'm seeing is that Burford has its hands full with just the American side of the business , so there still is a massive potential for more growth from many other countries . So our profits in my opinion have a very long way to climb in the coming years, so who knows maybe we'll get to £100 share price in ten or more years time. That actually wouldn't surprise me at all now. Though I do want to see a even now dynamic push to grow the who!e business and especially see the company streamline it's intake of borrowing requirements so that it's easy to see just one source of financing and more Burford only deployment money going in, and Burford only profit coming out. The company is very complicated for ordinary investors to understand, so any type of streamlining or simplification would be really helpful here, I can see the company is trying to get more Burford only deployments, though I'm sure we just all want 100% of everything to come from us and come back to our own shareholders as huge earnings and profits. We will get there ok, this is a fantastic investment and a life long holding for me.
Please DYOR, GLA
Well strangely enough I picked up one thousand shares yesterday at £10.51 , I've no idea what they are going to do on a daily or weekly basis, though that surprising fall yesterday without any negative news seemed well over done , those shorters along with market players might have been at their game yesterday, or it was simply a overdue normal profit taking occurrence, or we may just never know, I wasn't planning to buy yesterday, though these dips can bring out the immediate buying opportunity instincts in people like myself.
GLA.
Investors have their choice here, to invest in a company that only exist to return a average compounding growth per year of around 20 % to mostly over 25% , with this getting massively enhanced by any potential big pay out in the YPF case, this is exactly what most investors want, it's a kin to putting your money into the bank and getting 25% added to your money every year or most years, the whole point in Burfords existence is to carry out this exact business plan, and it's working fantastically bar the pandemic delays, any investment in Burford is exactly what Warren Buffett himself ask for from all his financial deployments, burford only invest when the average outcome indicates that $1 dollar will come back to Burfords as $1.30c per year, this is a fantastic compounding growth stock, and soon or later the markets should give Burfords a decent share premium as it's years ahead of any competitor, and also having real cutting edge all round advantage to any competitor, with a very close relationship with the top 100 law firms, this also is exactly what Warren Buffett wants from his best investments, so surly this year we can see Burfords share price truly reflect all these excellent financial investing metrics. The MM and shorters will do their short term stuff here , though Stick with burford for brilliant compounding earnings growth year after year here, long term I'm very excited what Burford is going to return to all investors. The analysis were stating that Burfords shares are worth $16 dollars now without any YPF input, though I strongly believe that the full 2023 earnings should beat most of these conservative estimates and share price estimates. This is going to be one truly fantastic turning point year for Burford and it's investors. At least £20+ minimum this time next year.
Please DYOR. GLA.
I've bought in here at 34p and then because of share dealing delays and ended up topped up at a overall average price of 40p 20000 shares in total.
I didn't know what these shares will do before delisting ,through there's already a clear excellent profit ,
My thinking is that I'm owning a share that's worth more than 10 Times what I bought them for, and backed up by the obvious excellent growing earnings that's coming in, and with a very possible very large dividend payout history.
From here the dividend is the key to staying in here, with the fallback being it's biggest shareholder will sell the company or buy it all out for himself at the market average buyout price, it's biggest shareholder will have to ask a ordinary respectable bank to determine a fair price for the shares and buy the shares accordingly at that determined price, now that could easily be £3.50p or over £5 or more according to past online articles and reports, so it's seems to me a good gamble on the sum of the parts and risk, also the strong possibility of getting all your money back or even 10 Times your Moneyback so I'm staying in to see what happens here. Excellent opportunity in my estimation.
Please DYOR, never buy or sell on anyone's positive or negative forum post. GLA
Also HFwizard you can listen to the full conference call again, it's held for Burfords investors here below.
https://www.investis-live.com/burfordcapital/644b751569b6910d00728042/osld
Gla
Yes the market was overall impressed with the results, full year 2022 earnings exceeded analyst expectations by 11% though the EPS did lag behind or missed analyst estimates by 30% , the share price indicates the market is substantially and overall very impressed with the current and future figures, any earnings that look missing are simply delayed and coming through most likely this year or essentially in the next financial reporting period / june, revenue is forecast to grow 33% per annum in the next two years, and that's without any input from the YPF case, I personally see the earnings smash those analyst forecast by a very large percentage. Though mainly because of the pent up case load coming through this year,
The share price looks quite strong here bar the normal driving the shares up and down brigade. I'm extremely happy with everything so far, that analyst presentation and investors call in was really positive and without any fake hype, what they were telling us was factual information around the expected case load with 2023 looking like the turn around year for our case loads, and translating into the expected much higher earnings that they knew would come through after the court backlogs cleared, though I could of done without the echoey sounds in that conference call, some or a lot of the conference call technical metrics would confuse and lose most people or investors,
Overall the conference call left me feeling very enthusiastic about Burford as the biggest earner and funder in the world, also that Bogart sees no threats to its market dominance, and he's even genuinely enthusiastic for new funder entrants to push this trillion dollar industry out even further, though I'm sure they themselves know they must hold their multi year lead over any other funding competitors.
I also see a steady share price increase this year and even beyond my £20+ share price prediction for this year. Believe me It's not wishful thinking because the evidence is all there for anyone to see in Burfords own earnings modelling predictions. and this is backed up by the current soon to be this year realised case loads.
The YPF case is a multi billion dollar win for Burford, and that's from Chris Bogarts own mouth yesterday, how this plays out is anyone's guess here, the trial court judgement is immediately enforceable unless a surety bond is posted by Argentina
or Argentina gets a " stay " from preskas court. there's alsorts of other twist and turns here ,though it's just one big court wasting stalling tactic, in the end as Bogart states a multi billion dollar award has been won by Burford. With a sovereign Argentine state having to pay this judgment .
I'm extremely happy with the full trajectory of Burfords fortunes, also again a big thanks to Sebastian Maril and his excellent following of this ypf case and it's newsflow.
Please DYOR, GLA