Member Info for griff75

People can’t have it both ways it what I tried to say!!!

It’s interesting really as they didn’t like it when the share price was dropping and when Jody announced he was stepping down the share price fell even further to about close to £1.80, then when they announce today the new CEO it drops again. People have it both ways can they!!!

I’ve just looked on London Stock Exchange website and someone bought 150,000 @ 2.8565 at 11:13. Total amount of the trade was 428,475k. Maybe somebody knows something we don’t??

I also got an alert saying it hit £2.85 but I can’t see that in the current charts

I’ve just been reading the latest update today regarding HS2 timelines and costs, and as expected it is about 13years+ late and original cost of 33 billion which could end up costing 102 billion. Regarding the trainline the biggest threat (if you can call it that) is the government producing a ticketing system to rival the trainline, I think we can all agree this is unlikely given that costs are spiralling on HS2 and others like defence spending so surely this ticketing will get pushed back and the threat will never materialise?? I’m definitely of the opinion of this and wonder what you all think?

Just looked at the Q1 trading update today and figures look very good (exceptional in some cases). Personal Lines in the UK up 62% but Commercial down by 8%. COR ratios improved across the board. Wealth net inflows numbers very strong having won 112 schemes in Q1. Looking forward to the update call at 9am!!!

I also think that if any other political party were to win the next general election then I don’t think they would pursue this GBR ticketing system (as the conservatives did when they announced they would stop introducing this). So with this current disarray in the Labour Party then it’s questionable whether this even goes ahead and gets off the ground. Other parties will just keep it as it is today as the government still gets the income from ticket sales anyway!!! They have enough to deal with the rail network infrastructure. Food for thought anyway

Unfortunately the financial numbers are quite poor comparing 1st Half of 2025 to the full year released today.

Institutional Retirement 1168 compared to 618 at Half year

Asset Management 402 compared to 202 at Half year

Retail 447 compared to 237 at Half year

So all 3 were weaker in the 2nd Half.

Compare that to the likes of Aviva and there is no comparison!!! Yes the dividend is improved 2% and the Buyback 1.2 billion, but it’s easy to see why the market overall doesn’t like it.

L&G could do with another Amanda Blanc in charge, then we’d see some results.

Good Luck everyone

Absolutely fantastic year end results today. 350 million buyback which was the expected number following the Direct Line acquisition, hit all milestones including Total Group Operating profit and Operating Earnings per share. Amanda has been a fantastic leader for Aviva and long may it continue!!!

I think this is a perfect opportunity for someone to step in and buy these out now. Just look at PayPal as a recent example of that. I’m convinced the year end results will again be good in a few weeks time, so I’m buying again now

Hi Hounddog, this was the information I found

“Trainline sells over half of all UK train tickets, with figures from early 2023 showing they accounted for 51% of total UK ticket sales, up from around 45% in 2019, demonstrating significant market dominance and growth, though recent reports focus more on their rising sales volume (e.g., 8% growth in H1 2025) and revenue rather than the overall market share percentage”.

To answer your other questions have a look at the tender link I have put in a post a few weeks back. It states “GBR's ticketing website will combine the existing 14 rail operator websites and apps into one - with the previous websites ceasing to function.” The project scope is as follows:

Phase 1 launch scope (non-exhaustive)

• Ticket retailing and associated services (purchase, fulfilment across paper/Barcode/ITSO, seat & cycle reservations, Passenger Assist).

• Journey planning with clear pricing, comparison and best fare guidance.

• Live service information including disruption and future travel advice.

• Post-sale customer support (changes, refunds, Delay Repay).

Phase Two : TOC integration - over up to 12-months post-launch to integrate capabilities, across all Department for Transport (DfT) publicly owned operators. Beyond the Phase 1, GBR may expect the solution to be continually developed and enhanced based on a roadmap that is agreed with GBR and regularly updated based on customer and market needs. It is anticipated that this may see the phase-out of some services delivered in place of new capabilities.

There was also a Transport committee meeting yesterday which was worth watching as they discussed ticketing but the summary was they didn’t have much info. If the trains can be more reliable and the network better then this leads to more passengers, this is the outcome they want, not focusing on who they buy a ticket from.

Good luck everyone

I see JPMorgan is shorting this stock at 2%, if so this upgrade note today is a bit baffling to be honest. Have I got this right??

Hi JG, even after the 50% drop I’m still super confident that 2026 will be a turn around year. The Train Operating Companies websites and app will be redundant soon when GBR has taken them public, so if Trainline currently sells approximately 50% of UK tickets that means the other 50% will be up for grabs before GBR is even released (I describe that as a big opportunity gap for Trainline to fill). The new functionality release is a big win + the current advertising. Partnerships with AMEX and NAVAN who trade on NASDAQ have been extended. If the year end results in March are as good as normal then the direction of travel can only be one way (as you say the fundamentals can’t be ignored forever).

Hi Nick, is there anyway to find out the current shorts for LGEN or any stock? I personally think L&G is going to continue to creep up as it’s been doing and going to be interesting when the Final results are published on 11th March. I think the results will be better than expected as he’s aiming low and he doesn’t want to disappoint, but keeps on highlighting a big upside!!

Hi Hounddog, do you know which other companies are doing the DPAYG trials other than the Trainline as I haven’t seen this shown anywhere? I also see Trainline released a really important AI upgrade/new features recently and are actively advertising across social media that I’ve never seen before, so I think they are super confident right now and where they are heading. I’d be really surprised if the share price is not higher this time next year as it’s rock bottom at the moment. Here’s hoping I’m right!!

Hi AParky, I’ve just been doing some research and I found something called the “ GBR Online Retail project”. So this website/app is currently out for procurement tender (VERY INTERESTING indeed). So this is obvious to me that THEY AREN’T going to develop this themselves!!! Have a read of this

https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/078591-2025

Totally agree HappyInvestor, this government app is just pie in the sky right now. The torries backed out of creating this app so what’s to say Labour won’t do the same when they realise the complexity (just look at the Covid app as a government example!!!). This is assuming Labour stay in the power and currently Reform are Even money favourites, so the JP Morgan statement today is just “theory” which I’m not buying to be honest. Good luck to everyone

Don’t J P Morgan own nearly 6% of Trainline stock, if they don’t like why are they sell? Seems strange that they keep downgrading but keep the 6% stake??

Oh my, down 10% this morning, this is getting totally ridiculous. The fundamentals are still there but the year end results are 3 months away and who knows where we’ll be then. I wonder if this is prime time for a buyout?

I don’t see that as a negative, in fact a positive. The reason being is that keeping prices the same “may likely” attract more passengers in total and given that Trainline charges a fee then revenue is very likely to increase. Like Tax rises (what we’ll see tomorrow may in many cases bring in less revenue because of unintended consequences). So the drop in my opinion isn’t warranted. They also asked the Treasury by keeping the rail prices the same how much would that cost the government, the answer was 600 million+ (much bigger than they expected).