Member Info for GreyPanther

Yes, it's certainly been a long wait. It's been just over 5 weeks since the rig moved off location, and probably slightly more than that since the well started to clean up. So what are we (and Larry, I guess) waiting for? Are there any regulatory issues or consents that must be in place before full scale production can actually start? I wonder.

Hi passiton. Many thanks for your interesting comments. I’ve looked at Chuditch’s regional geological setting and it appears that the Timor Trough a very deep trough between Timor Leste and Chuditch, but lies some distance north of us. As we’re situated between Bayu-Undan and Sunrise / Troubador, it seems that Chuditch lies entirely on the much more stable Sahul Mesozoic Platform. In which case, the small graben (which the presentation shows as affecting only the sedimentary section above our prospect) has created a smaller, much shallower trough over only the Chuditch prospect. IMOthis would affect mostly the geophysical interpretation, but it shouldn’t presumably be a serious barrier to an export pipeline to Ausralia in the way that the Timor Trough would be. What do you think please?

For example, why is the trench "vibrating"? Tnaks.

Thanks passiton. Could you please say a little more about"d major ghosting and depth perception errors, due to the trench vibrations. Hope that helps". Thanks

Hi miker444 & passiton. I’m very interested in what was reportedly said by Shell in the 1990's that Chuditch across the whole license is “probably bigger than Sunrise, labelling over 5 tcf and multiple other leads across the license”. If one looks at the latest Chuditch presentation, which was based on 3D seismic data, there appears to be little structural separation between Chuditch and the prospect to the NE of Chuditch. In fact, they appear to me to have the same closing contour, although the latter prospect seems to extend to the east, and outside BOIL’s licence . It’s quite possible too that the same could be said of several other prospects and structural “leads” located to the west and south-west of Chuditch. So, and it’s only an opinion based on the presentation, the newly interpreted data could make a combined potential gas reserve of 3 to 5 Tcf a real possibility. And it might possibly all found in the main Chuditch structure.

Hi itsawrap. I agree that a pipeline for the Ashover gas alone isn't likely to be economic, especially at the recent GOR. But once the P'stone flags come on stream with their more significant gas content, that will make the case IMO. However, Egdon never surprise me now with their regularly missed deadlines. Have they ever finished anything early?

For what it's worth, I've been looking at the Wressle Gas / Oil Ratios since the NSTA first published their production data for July 2022. I can estimate the average monthly GOR which was a fairly constant 650 cu. ft / barrel (approx) from then to Feb '23, . The GOR jumped to 716 in March '23 but it has has declined a lot since then. The latest GORs are: March '23: 716, April: 695; May: 687; June '23: 675 and July: 545 cu. ft / barrel. I've assumed that March’s GOR increase had nothing to do with the water coming in because, according to the NSTA, water production only started in perhaps late June ’23. However, the lower GORs may indicate that the reservoir pressure is beginning to drop off. This may explain why the daily oil production fell from an average 778 bopd in June to 619 bopd in July. But IMO it should make the gas flaring issue a bit less of a problem in the future if the trend continues once we're back on stream.

I’ve looked at the Wressle production since the NSTA first published figures for July 2022 and was able to estimate the Gas / Oil Ratio (GOR) from then to Feb '23 as being fairly constant at about 650 cu. ft / barrel. The GOR jumped in March '23 but has declined a lot since then. The recent GORs are: March '23: 716 cu. ft / barrel, April: 695; May: 687; June '23: 675 and July: 545. I assume March’s GOR increase can’t have anything do with the water coming in because, according to the NSTA, water production only started in perhaps late June ’23. However, the recent lower GOR may indicate that the reservoir pressure is beginning to drop off. This may explain why the daily oil production has fallen from an average 778 bopd in June to only 619 bopd in July. But it should make the gas flaring issue a bit less of a problem, I guess.

If Bisc planning appeal is approved ..... Yes, but when might it happen, we are all wondering.

There was a purchase at 1.30pm today of 25 million shares at 0.0885p which seems like a good start to me.

I agree with VernetLes about the offshore Zechstein play being technically interesting. However, it's worth bearing in mind that Egdon formerly had two offshore / coastal licences with old Zechstein gas discoveries on them. They were successful in farming out to Shell, only for the latter to subsequently withdraw, presumably because the gas potential wasn't really material for them Subsequently Egdon had to drop both licences as, on their own, they couldn't afford to acquire the rather expensive inshore 3D seismic data that was necessary to confirm a drilling target.

Hi Tovoc. For what it's worth, here's something I posted in mid September:

"Before any of us is carried away by Cloughton's 184 Bcf of GIP (P50 Case) and the possibility of our drilling an appraisal well soon, I reckon about £2.5 to £3.0 million gross would be needed for a well, of which our 40% share would be £1.0 to £1.2 million. Unfortunately the Carboniferous sandstone reservoir here is, quite frankly, pretty horrendous as it flowed at only 40,000 cu. ft per day from an overall section more than 4,000 feet thick. So IMO it would need to be fracked to get a commercial flow rate, which is no longer on the cards. Perhaps it needs a whole series of proppant squeezes!"

On reflection, more up to date completion methods ought to help with the potential flow rate as it's been many years since Cloughton was drilled by Bow Valley.

The cash was in my broker's nominee account this morning.

Unfortunately there wasn't anything new concerning the well's performance.

"Will they buy out UJO and EOG?". I reckon it's fairly unlikely that Heyco will bid for either company or for their Wressle interests.as they don't currently have a disclosable holding in either company from which they could launch a successful bid. Well, that's unless they were to bid at least double their current SPs.

Persi. After "or even if they've actually paid for the casing for the WN horizontal well." I should have added "yet". I certainly didn't think they would have paid for it in 2022!

Rathlin UK's 2022 accounts have been published recently too. They're on the Companies House website at: https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk

They had unrestricted cash of £3.624million at 31 Dec '22, a bit more than I'd expected, although we don't know what they've spent since then, or even if they've actually paid for the casing for the WN horizontal well. Rathlin also said that their 66.67% share of the well will cost £9.0 million, which is £13.5 million grossed up, so Reabold's 16.665% share could be as much as £2.25 million, rather than the £2.0 million I'd previously calculated. All this suggests to me that, since we can't certain that RBD will have their Victory cash by the end of Dec '23 to bail out Rathlin should they wish to do so, that the latter had better get on with some serious fundraising PDQ if we are to see a WN well in H1 '24.

Note 11 concerns "Other Investments" and is worth a look. It includes a line about Daybreak which was valued at £1.155 million at the end of 2021 and is now worth (£1.068 million) Yes, that's a minus, so its value has decreased by £2,223 million. Well done boys!

Mrs Wamp either can't read very well or, perhaps more likely, choses to mis-represent what was said in the RNS about the casing purchase.

Very good news on the oil-based mud front, but part of the RNS made me smile: "Reabold's balance sheet has sufficient funding for its direct share of the planned drilling on the licence and the Company will also support Rathlin in exploring funding options to enable the drilling of this well in H1 2024. Reabold may be in a position to provide additional funding to Rathlin following receipt of the second tranche payment from Shell relating to the sale of the Victory asset".

Wouldn't it be better to see Rathlin sort out their own finances and pull themselves up by their own bootstraps, rather than relying on us to do it for them yet again.