Member Info for Greg25

Potentially upto 4 mines in 4 years! There's always a bigger picture so we'll have to see what develops if anything now. The clue is that CAPEX being twice free cash flows and you'll know they're pulling out all the stops.

I think this year's CAPEX will be somewhere between $7m-$9m and FCF somewhere close to $4.3m

ID78 " There is no doubt in our mind that Caracal has an enviable pipeline of acquisition opportunities to be actioned in 2022. Certainly, the acquisition pipeline includes one project that is close to production coming with a recently finalised Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS). In addition, there is also a Kilimapesa look alike which is already in production. As before, vendors seem more than happy to take paper as they appreciate that the Caracal team is successfully and rapidly adding value."

Only one,
Everyone is entitled to their opinion but regarding Plant 4 , what we know is it's forecast to produce 9,585 oz from 2023 onwards roughly 799 oz per month or $450k per month profits.

From 2023 the profits are expected to be roughly $13.4m by my estimation and reinvested back into future growth.

No I can only read it one way and that's constructed and commission in Q4.

Reason being is that page 14 comments actually complies with page 11 figures for 5½ months production from plant 4 in 2023.

Secondly on page 14 is says

Plant 3 pad 3 under construction to be completed and commissioned during July 2022.

That's most likely to be in the photo.

Thirdly they don't have the funds for construction of plant 4 and pay $1m for Nyakafuru by the end of July.

The sums don't add up when they are averaging 533 Oz per month for the rest of 2022.

ID78 reference page 14 of the latest presentation.

Plant 4 - pad 1 - 4 to be constructed and commissioned during Q4 of 2022

sw100
The drop in SP has killed off them buying 2nd producing mine near term so the 10p target could be longer. 5p is still very much on though! 24Koz per year followed by 2Moz+ assets and major capital investment for further expansion should do it combined with higher gold prices.

It doesn't matter when you've bought in since it's listed it is a paper loss now but longer term will be paper massive gains.

You'll see

I'm jealous:)

Under £12m MCAP and if this company plays it right it could be £1.2bn in time.

Endeavour has 6 mines worth over £4bn in West Africa, I think 25% is achievable in East Africa over the longer-term.

Plant 4) 4,455 oz 2022/23

Plant 4) 9,585 oz 2024/25 average of 799 oz per month

Plant 4) 6 months 2022 X 799 oz = 0 (Zero)

Plant 4) 6 months 2023 X 799 oz =(should be 4,794 oz) but it's NOT it's actually 4,455 oz

2023 first 6 months is 339 Oz short because it's only 5 ½ months production.

This means that Plant 4 isn't constructed at this time and will go into full production mid- January.

So the company has $1.75m in the bank.

They need to pay $1m for Nyakafuru end of July 2022.

Revenues is from average 533 oz per month which would only cover the exploration at Kilimapesa. ($300k per month)

The company only has $750k left in the bank to fund Nyakafuru exploration, complete expansion on plant 1 (full production from October) complete expansion on plant 2 (full production from September) and build Plant 4 (full production mid-January)

I very much doubt the $750k would cover it but the company cannot dilute the share count the only and obvious answer is to tap into the company's next to zero debt.

There's several ways they can achieve this and as long as it's manageable it's not a problem .

It's not like getting a loan for a car it's about increasing the future revenues/company worth in an accelerated manner.

I stand to be corrected but after the MRE and before the $1m payment we'll know which way the wind blows

Page 11says

(1st July 2022 to 31st June 2023)

Plant 1) 7,087 oz

Plant 2) 1,373 oz

Plant 3) 2,281 oz

Plant 4) 4,455 oz

Total 15,196 oz, (we know it's 2k oz from end of year and that only leaves 533 oz per month average.

These are the latest figures the company has put into the latest presentation.

RM has already said to try and work out the run rate is like trying to drive a car whilst fixing the brakes.

There's going to loads of stoppages whilst they upgrade the plants. Only from the end of the year when the current expansion is finished will the run rate become reasonable to predict.

The company has virtually zero debt, it's good for investors for the company to tap into that just as long as it's manageable. (There's no dilution)

I explained yesterday Endeavour mining had Capital Expenditure of twice it's cash flow for 3years , it had ran up a debt which it reduced massively in the 4th year and from the 5th year it run up a huge cash flow bigger than any gold company in the world in 2021.

I want to see the company expand in a manageable way and it looks to me like they're doing it the right way.

Aprogerson , you're really good at the figures you really are but let me explain.

Page 11 of the presentation it says 151196 oz Gold dore production until 31st June 2023.

Which is an average of 1265 oz per month over the next 12 months.

BUT it's predicted to have a fun rate of 2k oz per month from the end of the year.

So that means from now and the end of the year it's run rate will be 533 oz per month.

Roughly $300k profits covering exploration only

I still think it's going to be the MRE then capital investment before the 2Koz pr month is reached.

£3m hole from £5m working capital CLN replaced by £2m strategic placement. Also there's $1m payment (31st July) for Nyakafuru that was originally planned to be paid in shares.

Current production covers exploration only, there's $1.75m in bank that would have been used for plant 4 build (presumably).

Company virtually has zero debt currently, this is the area I predict the CAPEX will come from to complete expansion.

Endeavour Mining is the largest gold producer in West Africa. They have 6 gold mines producing 1.4Moz this year with AISC of $900.in the last 5years their exploration side has discovered 11.5Moz.. They spent 3years in the investment phase whereby capital expenditure was double to cash flow. They spent the following year reducing the debt. Last year they had the highest free cash flow yield of any gold company in the world.

February this year Paul Reeves left them to become our CFO.

We're going to spend 3years or more in the investment phase, a processing plant in Tanzania is around $30m. I think there's also another mine in the pipeline too.

It's all going to start with this upcoming MRE the CAPEX will be double cash flows following a similar pattern IMO

Can't see it being less..

Taking into consideration that the heap leach plants 3 & 4 will be built beforehand and first gold is from 2 weeks later. Making it month estimation.

Using calculations taken from page 11 of the presentation, I've calculated when all 4 plants will become fully operational with a combined production of 2,007 oz per month, here's my results:

Plant 1 full production from October 2022

Plant 2 full production from September 2022

Plant 3 full production from mid July 2022

Plant 4 full production from mid January 2023.

On page 11 of the presentation for 2024 plant 4 heap leach for the year and every year after 9,585oz.

9,585oz / 12months = 799oz per month.

For 2022/23 heap leach 4 predicted to be 4,455oz

6 months X 799oz = 4,794oz

4,794 - 4,455 = 339oz short

So heap leach plant 4 won't be coming online until near middle of January 2023.

Only one, by my own estimation on 31st December 2022 the company would have made a profit from gold sales since it listed of $4.2m and in the same time period the exploration cost at Kilimapesa would be $4.2m.

They had a £5m CLN facility which they changed for a £2m strategic placement.

There must be £3m shortfall in the expansion planning to overcome.

They can't dilute but the obvious thing to look at is that the company has basically zero debt to tap into.

RedRoy, nice post Gold dore production of 15196oz for next 12months until 31st June 2023. You're absolutely right with average 1265oz/month.

But we can go one better, by the end of year it's 2Koz per month production, so 2023 will account for 12Koz leaving 3,196oz for the rest of 2022 which is 533oz average production per month . Roughly $300k per month profit covering Kilimapesa exploration and NOT funding further expansion.

Therefore capital investment is definitely coming to finish the expansion plans.

It won't be dilution of a placement, so it's going to be something quite exciting for shareholders.