Member Info for GreenWolf

A few "if"s in there esquimo...!
We're looking oversold, so let's hope for a slight upward trend. No more wishy washy news please BoD.
GLA

"Whats another year?"
Unfortunately a fund raise if we're not careful.
Need that bid to hold today. GLA

Well, let's see how the market reacts to that.
In one sense I can't complain because we have the promised update.
Not sure it's quite what I was expecting though.
New BoD, same old issues?

Yes, we have a new BoD, but until we get a production update with some tangible figures, it is still all noise at the moment. That's really where the market is at, hence the very slight drift back in share price with a bid now of c11.5p.
Fingers crossed.
GLA

I've been a bit off grid this week but great to have positive updates from Noel, podcast and RNS.
We need to keep up the momentum and most importantly deliver those numbers. Cash is king.
GLA

Straight from the interims, the administrative expenses are £70k per month - they were more or less the same in 2021. If you look in the annual report the Administrative costs are broken down by item. There's £250k in salaries alone in there..... it costs lots of money to run an AIM listed company.

Subbing to Brahma wont reduce any of that.

As things stand, we need £70k a month from our coal revenue to break even as a company.

Bullish - a paper loss is only a real loss when you sell. I've no doubt those who have been here any significant amount of time and not traded will be 90%+ down. I've been relatively lucky, although my trading gains and reduction in my paper losses have been slowed somewhat since we consolidated in January last year. Share price volatility is a traders dream.

It's easy to say to people "why don't you sell up and move on" - it may be much harder to do that in practice.

Therefore, I suspect a fair few on here, like me, are hoping for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow result...it might come, it might not. At $10 a tonne income, we might be waiting a bit longer yet.....but that's the AIM casino gamble, isn't it? GLA

Like I said to Bullish yesterday, it's not the personnel.

The pure hard facts of the figures from the BoD around revenue share and our underlying costs to run Edenville is that we are, in our current form, unsustainable as a business.

Our administrative expenses are way too high. It needs a serious turnaround in the next few months and without it, as I have alluded to previously, there undoubtedly needs to be a placing at some point to sustain the economic model.

The only way any longer term holder could possibly be anywhere near break even is if they have traded, at very high risk.

Afternoon Diggerman and trust you are well - any gossip from Africa?

Agree with that esquimo.

If you look at Current Assets in the Interims, the Inventories is the value of stockpiled assets at production cost (not sale value), which accounts for ROM, Washed coal and Fines stockpiles. It is broken down in the annual reports as a value against each of those three as it is required to be done like that for audit sign off, but in the (unaudited) interims it is just added in as a total value.

You could do a reasonably complex calculation from the P&L to work out what the value of those assets is in terms of sales, but given our costs of sales versus revenue from the accounts since we started washed coal sales, you might actually come up with a negative figure....! The annual results indicated we had the following
ROM - £453; Fines - £134,756; Washed coal - £7,512
That (along with previous annual reports) suggests that most of stocked coal is normally fines.

Bullish - no, that's not how you read a P&L

The cost of sales is all costs associated with the day to day operational elements of the mining, so that includes salaries of our foreman, drivers etc.

Admin expenses would include anything required to actually run the company (exec salaries, legal expenses, costs associated with being AIM listed etc etc)

If you sub out the mining you technically reduce your cost of sales to zero, but have negligible impact on admin costs.

So, at 4k tonnage per month we should just about break even (net), according to our latest interims - and that also assumes we get $50 per tonne at the gate....

If we only get $35, it will take us c7.5k tonnes to break even.

Bullish - but it's not about the personnel, it's about the business model. I have said many, many times on here about the importance of getting economies of scale and actually heading towards profit.

The other way to look at it is to consider what that revenue share agreement might yield.
Let's say we get to 4,000t in a month - if we sell the coal at $50 (which is the upper "robust" value from the Bod) we will make $19 ($10 plus 60% of $15) - that's $76k or roughly £70k. Our Admin expenses from the last six months amounts to, oh, roughly £70k a month. So that suggests that on the current forecast we breakeven (net) as a company at 4,000t per month assuming all operational (or gross) costs sit with Brahma and assuming we get top gate price.....if we only sell at $35 then by a rough calculation we need to get to c7,500t per month to break even....and those tonnages need to be an average over a 12month period not just during the dry season.

We now have the rainy season approaching which means we are very much in the lap of the Gods and, as SoS rightly points out, the BoD already seems to be warming us to the fact that the next six months might not be pretty.

It's a pants update. Really.

Bullish - someone must be paying you!

Remember we outsourced our operations for 4months of that interim period......yet, look at the gross loss on operations

It's dire, by any stretch of the imagination.

Jam tomorrow...again?
"Following extensive servicing and repairs on the main machinery and wash plant at the Rukwa site, and the purchase of two additional trucks, final works are expected to be completed shortly, with production recommencing sufficient to achieve up to 4000 tonnes by the end of October 2022. The targeted production and sales increase to 6,000 tonnes per month of washed coal is expected to take place after the rainy season ends in March/April 2023."

And if you take the currency gain out, our H1 operational loss as a company increased to over £820k.

Sorry, that's a truly shocking update.

Well, I do want to try and tempt fate....there's been next to no volume again this week so I suspect there's going to be nothing ground breaking in the post period highlights.
One can but hope - my fingers have been crossed for so long they have fused together.
GLA

esquimo - Friday is included.

But in theory if anything exciting was happening on the ground we wouldn't need to wait for a RNS to see a share price movement as the market would get a sniff....that, the usual radio silence and the slow publication of (unaudited) interim results, doesn't in my view suggest things are hugely positive.

But we'll see over the next day or so, I suspect. GLA

I'm no royalist but I found our Queen one of the most inspirational people I have ever come across. I've just read Justin Trudeau's words and they are so poignant - she was "thoughtful, wise, curious, helpful, funny and so much more."

On a more Edenville focused level, let's see what September brings. We can speculate 'til the cows come home - just need those RNSs over the next 3 weeks. GLA

But nobody will buy it if we dont wash it. Quite fundamental to the process, although I do wonder why the "at gate" price is so low though.

Bullish - "They said they are hoping for 4k tonnes by mid sept" - I've been here too long to even register words like hoping, expecting, targeting, possible etc etc. Our PR team are geniuses in their own right using those sorts of words.

9th October 2017...in a little over 6weeks we'll have been at the washed coal piece for exactly 5years. And in January 2018 we should have been at "at least 10,000t". There's nothing like a bit of expectation in life, eh?

DoneK - RNS 22nd March and 27th April - do they help?

Well, Brahma will have been onboard almost a month at the end of next week.
Thoughts on RNS w/c 5th September anyone?