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RRomeo, why would the Chinese bother? Please answer.

Ok thanks. I didn’t spot that. AGMs are usually bland affairs, except for SS sitting on Santa’s lap asking for something from his sack. Coal I think. Gcm is illiquid enough!! Normally a company prefers to be more liquid!! Maybe with funds raised from initial sales of coal they want to buy our consultants stock back.

Where does it say the company will buy back shares?

For smoother coal supply incumbent government has to take decision of mining own coal on top priority basis and transport coal to power plant through required expansion and improvement of railway networks.

Or very small percentage drop.

There’s a hunt ongoing.

Baxtea, we know your stance. It’s a traders stance. It doesn’t matter in the end so go for it lol. Go short.

Baxtea, we all recognise the stink lol.

I think I’m pizzed based on my bad English and you know I may be tonight lol.

The Chinese gave 31 billion USD assigned to investment in BD to date. The Phulbari mine project is circa 13 billion USD more but as it is part of their “Belt and Road Initiative” it in my mind is a “fait a complit”, bad French but what I expect. Is the sp giving anything away? I didn’t feel like this since GKP at 9p (old money) and SOLG at 1.1p lol.

If you are a Bangladeshi I’m the king of England lol.

40000 displaced over 50 years is the actual figure unless you are an activist then it is an unlimited number.

And a further rise tomorrow of 20%?

Time for a higher sp.

.... ahead. Quick dip to the dark side then retest if resistance.

Sorry, not at the close, intraday I meant. 11am. Maybe there was a PME at the close but it wasn’t RNSd. Forget my ramblings :-D

I’ve never seen that in 10 years of trading, price monitoring extensions at 7am lol. Glitch? There were 2 yesterday at the close but are these new ones for this morning?

Newbyoldy, no problem. It’s a good read I have to admit and I wanted to role it out (again) so that people had access to it to aid our valuation discussions. There was a lot of poo pooing of the possibility of a 10 pound sp never mind 20 pounds in time. Yes, you are quite right about shares in issue now versus back then and current coal price but the figures also don’t include part ownership of the plants either. What has always amazed me was the speed to profitability (of the mine) figures. A nice reminder of the potential.

Comparative valuation is difficult for the reasons given above. However, price inflation for these sorts of assets is very strong. A recent example was the auction for a 25% stake in a Russian coking coal miner – Yakutugol – which produces c. 9Mt pa and has reserves of 300Mt. The successful bid of $411m values the asset a $5.4/t reserves and $186/t production. Applying the same valuation metrics to the Phulbari deposit gives a value of c. $2.03bn or £27.3/share for the resources or £37.5/share on steady state production due 2012.

Asia Energy has been one of the success stories of the current commodity boom. At the centre of its performance lies the potentially world class Phulbari coal asset. The deposit appears to have a combination of three factors that make it unique. First, a c. 40m seam which should result in bottom quartile cash costs. Second, high quality bituminous coal marketable to both the thermal and metallurgical markets. Finally, the deposit is less than 50km away from India, with its high growth steel and power generation industries. It is also obviously capable of assisting with the development of Bangladesh’s power capacity. The company’s share price performance since listing on AIM in April 2004 has been very strong. Yet, according to our estimates, the stock is still trading at a significant discount to our base case NPV. Using conservative coal price estimates some 40% below spot prices, we arrive at a pre-diluted NPV of £13.81. Making some basic assumptions on equity issuance, we arrive at a post diluted NPV of £11.30, c. 71% above the current share price. We also calculate that by the time the mine comes on stream in H2 2007, the pre-diluted NPV should have nearly doubled to £26.60/share or £21.80/share post dilution. All this will not be lost on predatory companies either in the steel or mining sector which are both seeing rapid asset price inflation.