Member Info for Gotrader

2 trades for circa 4.5m shares. Almost 1% of the entire stock. Funds not done yet.

No changes to shorts so far. Could be late reporting.

I compared the share to 2016 prices as the revenue after you take into account of inflation is almost flat.
They turned over 132m in 2016 and made a 20m profit after tax.

Canaccord Genuity have reduced their price target from 80p to 65p. 20% drop by them. In Nov 2016 Canaccord rated this share at 51p. Which is where we are at now.

Edison now predicting revenue of 139.4m for 2019 and 154m for 2020. They have shaved off 8m and 25m (15% drop 2020) respectively from 2019/2020. So they see revenue to recover by 14m next year. The recovery back to revenue of 170m could take 1-2 years. Unless IQE can suddenly turn this around?

They are predicting an 8m loss this year and 3m profit next year. (Before tax!)

https://www.edisongroup.com/company/iqe/429/

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/continued-impact-from-supply-chain-disruption/25602

Barclay give target price of 73p. Down 7p.

They were about 30p 3 years ago. So that could be floor here. They are doing worse than then albeit have the new facility.

Back in 2016 they were predicting 40% growth and decent profits. Now they are talking shrinking revenues, higher costs and a loss. What is fair value?

That is a small trade. When you see trades for 1-2m then things get interesting. The biggest shorter has over 28m shares. The volume of trades is more important than one off trades.

258k buy trade has been cancelled. A 2 or so large 300K+ trades after hours.

Big trade for day was £501,093.81 around 8.28am this morning. Almost a million shares.

See what if any shorters have closed tomorrow.

Problem is your looking at bad full year results coming out early 2019. This could subdue the share. Results will be at least 12m down on last year. They may have all these IP and be a market leader in their field but they are no Apple.

The dis economies of scale in their factories is a worry. Should they be closing down a facility or are they sure they can get orders to fill them? Short term I am not so sure. Right now the Welsh facility seems a big mistake.

It's a lot worse. They had predicted up to 160m revenue. Now we're told 142m at best. (28m reduction.) Their revenue will be marginally better than 2016. With much higher costs given Welsh facility. H2 was supposed to be much stronger. So 70m H2 revenue. 3 years of inflation makes revenue flat.

I appreciate they have many customer qualifying products for production but these are simply not offsetting lost customers. So the RNS in July was almost meaningless as it didn't paint whole picture.

On top of this they have burned through all the 90m or so they raised on open market and added little or no value. With maybe 20m debt on the books.

When will they start to make a profit again? Next year?

I can't be negative 24/7. I said seems to be. Lit of hype about iPhone sales. Clearly over hyped.

Heading to 50p test levels.

Iqe rule. Sell at peaks buy at lows. Right now I would wait to see where it settles. Long term they need to prove they can make money. I said all along they would make a loss this year. The new contracts are not making up for lost business.

Forecasts downgraded. Why did this surge to 70p. Loss coming for 2019. With a weak Q1 too.

See what happens but my guess is it will drop. I suspect people knew on Friday. Rule no 1. Ignore rampers on here

Does seem to be holding above 70p here. Which seems a positive.
JP Morgan reduced short by 0.01% on 7th.
T Rowe Price seem to have loaned out from 2.49-4.43 now from 4.43 to 6.12%. That is just over a third of their holdings.
Schroders now back above 5% is a positive.

Guessing Iphone 11 sales are going well. Can't tell about rest of market.

Should get a closing TU from IQE over next few weeks. Which based on this SP should be positive? Albeit Edison have not changed their forecast for year yet.

https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/morningstar-downgrades-barnetts-invesco-funds-warns-on-liquidity/a1290743

His fund has been downgraded. Will more investors want their money here? I can see IPO being sold off more here albeit the selling has dried up in last few days. Might also hit IQE if they have to sell.

Did anyone understand fully the RNS today? Appears more an accounting move than actually issuing more shares. Firms buying their own shares never seems to work well. Didn't help Lloyds or Cenkos.

See what next week brings. Still just below 60p here.

Lost all the gains of Friday. Perhaps just market forces taking a bite. Could be 1-2 weeks before we see any big holding RNS.

Happened last time a fund dumped shares. 55-56p is almost bargain base value here. The losses from the 2 below shares are marginal really. I can't comment on how the private firms are really doing.

If Invesco is still selling expect further pressure next week. Still a lot of doubt about them. The high value UT trades suggests funds are still heavily involved here. Even at 60p this share is way below the NAV of 1.1bn. Losses on 1-2 firms of 5-6m is nothing. Oxford Nanopore is almost half the company worth right now. Or a third if you consider NAV. Very heavy weighting.

Tissue regenix lost 20% on Friday. Lost over a third since end of september. 75% on year. Down to 2p or so.
Rest are not much changes.
Ceres close to 210p. Come down from high of 233p. Still in profit for year. 189 when I looked at them in August.

They need some of these shares to rise by 100-200%. Oxford Nanopore still their biggest chance to do something here.

2.88m is loss from peak in 2019 of 10p. It was much higher in December. Almost worthless now. Penny share.

They do hold this share. 16%. Current market cap of 2m. So their value is 320k now. So IP group have lost 2.88m here. That being said they have made gains on Ceres. Xeros was 300p 2 years ago.

I doubt this will impact share hugely as already heavily discounted from NAV.

Wait for further holding RNS. Funds still clearing shares here. 55p seems to be testing point when funds sell.

Not today. Need to clear seller.

Railway Trust up to 15.33%. Almost matches 6.8% Invesco sold. I figure they will reach 20% soon enough. Deals being done behind closed doors.