Member Info for gotabesirius

What on earth are you dribbling on about.......if you don't like this company why give it so much of your time? You only get one life!!

What percentage of the company does EDF hold?

Excellent update and all questions answered in a frank and honest manor, despite some particularly poor questions.....

Key take away is this Company is a rapid growth phase which will fuel the development of add on products in the future without shareholder dilution. Q3 sales are likely to beat q2, considering we've had three price rises this year we are now selling at unit prices that are likely to yield circa US 14-18M turnover for 2022 with opex 25% max of this figure.

Day ahead prices are ahead of August futures?? Unbelievable

Also worth considering the forecast. Heat wave inbound for the UK

I agree re natural gas. It's just a matter of how high it goes this winter....

Re hedging I'll answer my own question; it's falls in Q1 next year to about 10% of total production and is phased out by end of Q3 next year

Re IOG which I looked at recently, beware there's some major large holdings downsizing. Risk there is their largest shareholder is in Administration...if not resolved their assets will be fire sold, this is never a good process for a company's share price as they often take months to churn through. Just a note to look out for.

Many thanks, so I'm right in thinking there's no hedges in place for 2023?

Does anyone have the timeframe for phasing out of hedging to hand?

Au$21m......

That's a lot of profit/free cash flow before we pay any tax!

See post on ADV.. from the company

Asking for questions for up coming interview.....

I'd encourage you to engage with the company...as I have. Then you'll have your answer

Thanks for the correction. If all plays through by year end this should be around £50m market cap

Mike, I asked investor relations this morning if circa US$80-$100 was around about the wholesale price so far this year and I got a very positive response back.

In all fairness, as I've said before, if you consider last year globally, blended NPK fertilizer was selling at around $400 per tonne. This year it's selling for circa $1000 per tonne so far. Kp fertil has around 10% of the recognized units that a blended fertilizer has. so you can apply a 90% discount rate to this product on the global market. (However it has many other minerals and trace elements which help balance the soil, which makes it a much better product per unit, but lets keep it simple).

So with the above in mind...... NPK blended fertilizer last year was circa $400 per tonne. Apply the above discount for KP Fertil and you get $40 per tonne which just happens to be the recognized price in the results for 2021. Now apply the same methodology to this year and KP fertil should be trading at around $100 per tonne. However I think $80 is probably nearer the mark given it's a newish product and looking for market exposure/share.

So if we presume Hmi match H2 last year (worst case) it takes 2022 production to 170k tonnes. Multiply by US$80 and you get annual turnover of US13.6m, less opex of around USS2m and administration and running costs at circa US$3M. You are left with cash flow of circa US$8m and a PE of 3 at current valuation.

Personally I think production will come in at nearer 200k.....but you get the picture. What is Verde's current PE?

A question I've posted to the Company is how far can they realistically push production in future years? Any thoughts?

500k tpa?
1m tpa

You must have been living under a rock in March!

You just don't find businesses at £23m EV with this kind of outlook. It couldn't be better positioned to deliver significant profit and continued growth. Only question I have is how far can we push production? Surely government will be supportive in increasing scope of opps going forward. Fertilizer is about as safe a commodity as you'll find in this day and age and Brazil is the A1 jurisdiction as the world's fastest growing food producer.

Was an initial surge due to Ukraine way. Q3 is traditionally the busiest quarter of the year

Another plus is the amount of tax losses sat in the business. Huge pile of tax credits!

Factor in$US 80 per tonne at 170k tpa and you start to see how under valued this company is!! PS Apparently I'm very near on $80 per tonne sales price for 2022

Surely $60 then? Factor that into figures at circa 170k tpa!!

This company will be printing cash going forward

Excellent post. I actually think the 2022 per tonne sales price will be significantly higher than 25% considering globally fertilizer prices have increased 200-300%. I'd expect per tonne at US$80 Minimum which would support the 10% per unit value of KP fertil against convention fertilizer which is still circa $1000 per tonne.