RE: Helo1 Apr 2019 17:56
We can only speculate from the information provided. However, the company has been as good as its word when it has said advanced discussions or similar eg.
6/12/18: The Company has commenced a search for a Chief Executive Officer and is in advanced discussions with a potential candidate.
DB's appointment followed at the beginning of January.
31/01/19: A similar extension of time was applied for with the senior lenders until 31 March 2019 to align the various work streams involved in the shareholder loans consolidation and the senior debt refinancing. The Company expects to announce the decision of the senior lenders towards the end of next week.
Banks agreed to repayment extension early February.
29/03/19: While the Directors are confident the agreement will be signed it is not signed at this time and there can be no guarantee it will be.
Banks / shareholders agreed to standstill arrangement today.
This is why I am (and I believe many people here) are confident that when they say "in advanced discussions with NomAd", that's what they mean and that it will be agreed.
I would agree it's a high risk investment with the NomAd uncertainty, but if the risk was removed we wouldn't have this sort of buying opportunity, we'd be at 2-3p in all likelihood. We don't know what DB has said to the banks / shareholders regarding the company's debt position, but it must be convincing enough that they've agreed to this standstill. My investment hypothesis here, for what it's worth, is that DB has completely cleared the decks in the company and in doing so the company is being given a final chance to recover, get the mine to full production and work out a sustainable plan for paying off its debts. Although the debts are significant, if the mine is operating at full pelt and the lenders agree to more favourable terms, it is actually reasonably manageable (as lee et al. ably demonstrate).
Glad to have reduced the risk here a bit today and looking forward to see how things pan out shortly.