focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Good to get an update but still a lot of R&D ahead and burning cash..
You have to ask yourself... if a company currently valued at £30m with a lot gf R&D ahead and a long way off sales then is the value too high? I still think so sorry.
So still a strong sell in my book. Be more comfortable with value sub £10m (so share price around 9 or 10p) to reflect risks.
I think these guys are onto something but what worries me that a lot of R&D is still needed on both lines of their business.... so cash flow a long long way off.
My fear is they will burn through cash on their future R&D with no guaranteed results (it is high risk after all), resulting in a significant placing at the back end of this year.
Given this I feel a company that is currently valued at £43 million is way too high and I can see this value drop by at least 50% to reflect fairly the significant risks of this company. I know this post will not be popular to existing investors but we can not always look at blue skies but we need a sober assessment of the real risks/uncertainties in this company. Hope this is helpful.
A good company, but from latest results today the founders having a laugh at shareholder expense. Under their performance terms they have set aside �19.1m for the founders with one more year to run on it (part of a 3 year deal). Now given they have hit their performance in the first two years - of achieving 10% compound return over 3 years - the founders are going to reward themselves this year 25% of all additional returns for 2018. What this means is if the company deliver 10% to 15% total return this year (which is feasible given the strength of the UK industrial market) Hansteen will be paying the founders somewhere between �35m to �40m. Please note the long term incentive plan was formulated in 2005 (back in the casino banking era of pre Global Financial Crisis). Also, whilst I think Hansteen have done a good job, you have to questions if they really delivered superior growth; what I mean here is the company has just ridden the industrial market up... possibly through no skill of their own. As an example the broad level IPD index for Industrial property did 20% last year on an ungeared basis (no debt) which demonstrates the whole industrial market is booming. So you must question if the founders deserve the potential of �35 to �40m when most of the return is just driven by the broad market and not necessarily by management skill. So I think shareholders a getting a super bad deal in the Hansteen Founder Incentive. This is something shareholders should be on top of. EPRA NAV per share includes the impact of dilutive shares and dilution is required only to the extent that the results to date have exceeded the full target to 31 December 2018. Under this methodology the accrual to 31 December 2017 is 6.5 million shares to each of the Joint Chief Executives. As the full three year hurdle has been met by 31 December 2017, the value of the awards will increase by 25% of all additional returns made in 2018.
Thanks dbno. Do you, or anybody else, know who that 'aggressive new market entrant is'? Thanks
Thanks ap. I note the company ‘carpet right’ issued a warning today and shares are down massively. I would imagine some correlation between carpet demand and window demand. So things may not bode well for the next update.
Ouch!! I see someone is very wedded to this company. Good luck my one-eyed friend.
Given the debt holders own so much of the company I suspect what will happen in the next 12-18 months this company will be delisted and taken privately by the debt holder. Current private investors will be left with basically nothing I am afraid. I am not trying to deramp this stock (I do not short stocks) but it appears to me a possible logical step.
Basically New River is currently trading around its Net Asset Value (NAV). That is fine, but what does not make sense is that a major retail UK REIT like Intu is currently trading close to a 30% discount to NAV. But also the other major REITs like British Land, Land Securities and Great Portland Estate are trading at discounts of around 20%, 20%, and 15% respectively. If New River was priced in relation to the major REITs then in theory their discount to NAV (after adjusting for New Rivers higher income yield) should be around 20% (or a share price of 250p). So something appears very odd compared the other REITs. Any thoughts or views would be welcomed. Thanks