Ignore previous post14 May 2013 20:17
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Analysts at Macquarie echoed concerns about the risk that ENRC shareholders who are not part of the potential bidding consortium would be offered no significant bid premium. They have a 12-month price target of £2.55 on ENRC shares, which closed Friday at £2.93.
“Investors are potentially exposed to a share price collapse in the event that a bid fails to materialise,” said the analysts in a research report published on Friday. “Should a formal offer be forthcoming ... the bid premium offered will be limited by prevailing deal dynamics and the leverage the consortium has over minority shareholders.”
However the bid is structured, minority shareholders are likely to receive a price for their shares well below the listing price and much less than ENRC’s share price high of £15.35 in May 2008.
An offer of more than £5 would be a “stunning” result, said one person close to the situation, who added he would be “surprised” if the offer was anywhere near the listing price.
The bidders have various options on how they structure their bid. Some of those close to the situation believe that a bid structured as a takeover offer is the most likely.
The choice of a simple offer would mean that, with the support of Kazakhmys, which owns 26 per cent of ENRC, the bidders would have enough votes to delist the company. In that case, however, those who did not take up the offer would remain shareholders in the de-listed company.
If the consortium believes the independent board would be likely to recommend their bid, they can use a scheme of arrangement to secure ownership of 100 per cent of ENRC shares. This, however, would require the consent of 75 per cent of shareholders outside of the consortium.
If such an approach is taken, the consortium is likely to reserve the right to change the bid back to an offer structure, which would allow them to vote their shares in the decision of whether ENRC gets taken private or not.
In either case, the bidding group is also likely to seek some kind of undertaking from Kazakhmys before announcing a formal bid, one of the people said.
Those close to the process believe Kazakhmys is keen to sell its shares in ENRC and is highly unlikely to join the consortium.
For Kazakhmys, which declined to comment, a majority of its own shareholders will be required to vote on how it responds to the ENRC takeover offer because of the size of Kazakhmys’s stake in ENRC.
Russian politician and businessman Suleiman Kerimov raised his stake in the crisis-hit miner to 3.09 per cent in recent weeks. People familiar with the s