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Bump
Test was done with Brian swabs l
It says specially ‘Saturn Pass was launched in August 2020’. This information which has been mentioned before is new on the website. Why would they publish this if they weren’t confident with Affidx?
Hi Losta,
It seems there is an issue with the page. Could you provide a short summary? Cheers
Bump
I don’t think he ever said it was 100% certain. He did say it was very likely however, there are always unknowns and it could have easily been a last minute change out of their control. However, with this scenario, we know Medusa and Avacta are in bed together and that they want the exact same thing which minimizes the unknowns
..
Indy Indy Indy
Says the most decorated science journal..
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00162-9/fulltext
Could anyone confirm that the big short is still on? If so….
Wasn’t there information that suggested the frozen sampling method was now not needed to pass through PD?
Bunp
Don’t forget we have 30m per month capacity elsewhere and GAD
Very good point. While I want Avacta to have nothing to do with the UK Gov, I do believe the UK Gov cannot purchase any test that does not pass through PD. I reckon when we do pass, thanks to the frozen stage being taken out, we might see a change of direction from the UK Gov. That being said, I would much rather the company focus outside the Uk as the global market is massive
Just remember it’s pennies
Firstly, I thought everyone was happy with Avacta focusing on the EU/WW rather than the UK market due to the UK gov being nefariously corrupt? £100m compared to the £1.3bn is nothing. Either the UK Gov is looking elsewhere for future purchases or they are opening up the market to private sales. Either way, we should be focusing elsewhere
Thanks MCB55!
Next milestones
>Orders (Expected H2 2021)
>Home Self Use certification (Expected H2 2021)
> Cancer data (Expected Q1 2022)
My current position.
> We have the best test out there and while things have been slow or not transparent (UK Gov NDAs), I believe overtime we will start capturing markets with the test critically being able to detect the Delta variant and other competitors struggle identifying the Delta variant. This bodes well with Avacta’s test being able to identify new variants that may come about.
> Once Avacta achieve home self-test certification, we will be in a good position to take on the market especially in the long term as regulatory barriers will become higher and people will become better educated with LFT Sensitivity & Specificity.
> While the UK Gov’s position with Avacta’s is unclear, there are many markets out there especially once the home self test has been achieved.
> There has been a major sell off with Avacta shares and from my view, we are massively oversold and undervalued. Companies on the AIM are massively impacted by confidence and emotion and sadly it’s been against us for the month. However, all it would take is for a big order or for us to achieve home self test certification to renew confidence in Avacta’s SP.
> I haven’t even touched upon Avacta’s other products. Whilst they are long term, data is expected to be shown to the market regarding a Cancer Therapeutic product around 2022 Q1 which IF successful, it would transform Avacta’s SP as this would open up similar products within the platform.
Hi all,
With the recent terrible turbulent month, I thought I would summarise my current thoughts on Avacta.
Avacta’s current situation.
> It has been an awful month. SP has dropped nearly 50% from all time highs yet during the drop, we found out that we have the best COVID LFT in the current market which picks up the Delta variant whereas competitors struggle to identify the Delta variant.
Current Market situation.
> Cases worldwide (WW) are increasing due to the Delta variant.
> Vaccines are working but roll out WW has been slow exc UK. The vaccines are less effective on the Delta variant the other variants. The vaccines are even less effective against the Peruvian variant which has now been identified in the UK.
> While the cases and deaths link seem to have broken, hospitalisations are still increasing dramatically.
> Testing will continue being a key tool to fight against COVID.
> COVID is not going away, we will have to live with it.
Why has the SP dropped so much.
> No forthcoming orders when test was released.
> Previously investors were focused on orders from the UK Gov. Recently, the UK Government plans have been focusing on the Vaccine and PCR strategy with minimal talk on LFTs. That being said, the UK Gov are currently looking into using LFTs to reduce quarantining. The study is to take a LFT each day over 10 day period, positive LFT = individual keeps quarantining, if LFT is negative, then you’re able to go out that day. This is an ongoing trial.
> Large fund reducing stake.
> All these have amplified the SP falling.
Avacta’s Investment Case
> Is Covid going away? No
> Are Covid LFTs still in big demand? Yes.
> Can Avacta compete against other competitors? Yes
> Has anything materially changed with Avacta? No
Current LFTs
> Pricing of LFTs have fallen due to the increased supply. They currently are selling around £4 per test which would give Avacta £1 profit per test. This is roughly aligned to our expectations.
UK Gov
> My personal view of why the UK Gov has been quiet on LFTs is that the current LFTs in the UK do not pick up the Delta variant and that the Test & Trace program has been total shambolic with only 14% of LFTs having been recorded. Whilst the UK haven’t been efficient with LFTs, LFTs have been proven many times to be a very useful tool against COVID. This has been backed by research papers and successful country rollouts of LFTs.
> We know that Avacta is still in talks with the UK Government. NHS are rolling out a new test in July which would be professional use only and that Schools are expecting a better, more sensitive LFT in the new term in September. Logic says it will be Avacta’s however, it is an unkown factor and history tells us otherwise.
> Regardless of the UK Gov’s stance with LFTs, the rest of the world especially the EU are after excellent LFTs to assist in defeating COVID with the expected market for COVID LFTs being 3-5 years.