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Thanks Messdog, I appreciate the response!
Hi Messdog, that’s really interesting. Thanks for sharing. A couple of questions. When would these ‘loan shares’ be expected be paid back or is there no due date of such? And what point (if there is one) when the % of loaned shares gets to a point of being too high?
Bump
Great post EGTP. The market have definitely lost interest in the LFT. I’m glad the focus is now on the preCISION product which is where the true value lies however, the LFT is still game and I really look forward to hearing news regarding its return!
Hear hear aurorasencore. You’re spot on about how Avacta is looking to change the cancer market for good which will save so many lives. Similar to you, I’ve never felt better knowing where my investment lies.
Just putting out an idea.. Could the shorters be supported by large Bio Tech firms to keep the SP low? Jupiter ends up winning by getting money from the large Bio Tech firms regardless of the short position? Has this even been done before?
80mg was 90% of dose which Avacta started on. 90mg is the standard dosage. 90-120 = 33% increase
Hi Penny,
Sadly it was stated that this was a misunderstanding and was not a ‘post trading show’ rather than an ‘introductory show’. I’m expecting a trading update soon but not tomorrow. I think we all know what is coming before the trading update.. AV6000 data
Good question, the company has enough money to fund through to 2023 with its current trajectory. You can either think that the investor push is negative, trails aren’t going well, no LFT revenue or opportunity in the long term so Avacta is needing to raise as much money as possible with the current SP to fund itself beyond 2023. Reasons why I don’t believe this is happening at all is because, they have recently chosen the next PROdrug and received IND approval for AV6000 which means that they they are confident in with the current Precision data. Why raise money at the current SP with sentiment so low where as they could raise more money having realised the trail data? Also, if AV6000 data is negative and they try to raise money afterwards then the Company’s rep will be destroyed and will never be able to achieve any funding. AS is an honest bloke (yes - slightly optimistic and currently lack of communication) but he has been as honest as possible. Secondly, Avacta aim is to get the LFT back on the market ASAP which will bring in revenue hopefully for a long time. Which therefore makes me think (aligned with many LTHs) that Avacta is worried that when they release AV6000 data which is positive, large bio-tech firms will low ball the company and due to low confidence, sentiment, lack of understanding the true worth of Avacta’s IP and products (many PIs) and small institutional holdings, Avacta is in no position to defend itself. Hence why they want a broader and stronger investor portfolio. All my thoughts
Bump
Just ignore the trolls. They have their own agenda
Do you own research and ignore the trolls. How much do you value the precision technology? How much do you value the money on Avactas bank? How much chance is there for us to re-do a 2nd generation Covid test? How many other irons in the fire does Avcata have? Don’t feed the trolls
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year everyone. Cannot wait for 2022…
Merry Christmas to you Indy and to everyone else
Hi Losta, you mentioned earlier today on LSE that you knew there will be an RNS tomorrow but the thread seems it was taken down. How reliable is your source?
Morning all, thank you all for you contributions and comments. Always appreciate everyone’s viewpoint when looking at the company constructively. I know there are many who appreciate your thoughts. Have a good day all
Not only would this change the Oncology market, but it would also save so many lives.
What is the probability of success for the AVA6000 Phase I (‘P1’) trial?
Oncology has a notoriously lower success rate in clinical trials than other disease areas do. For P1, the average success rate for all other therapeutic areas is 73%, whilst for oncology, it is 58%. However, it is critical to remember that in the case of AVA6000 (and indeed all of Avacta’s pre|CISION pro-dugs under development), the efficacy of the drug is not in reality being tested. Standard doxorubicin is an extremely potent drug that has been used to treat multiple types of tumour for over four decades. Rather, it is AVA6000’s enhanced safety profile over doxorubicin that is being examined. As such, we believe that AVA6000 stands a considerably higher chance of success in P1 trials than the average oncology P1 trial does. Furthermore, many clinical P1 trials are considered a success if they show improved efficacy (or safety) over the control of as little as 10% to 15%. In mouse models, Avacta’s pro-doxorubicin demonstrated a safety profile of many multiples greater than standard doxorubicin. There is thus ample margin for error, e.g. partial cleavage of the pre|CISION linker when it is not in the tumour micro-environment (‘TME’)
So with all the information above, it fundamentally goes back to the SP.
As I said earlier, the decline in the SP is unfortunate however, the science works. The share price will take care of itself, if and when key operational goals are achieved.
Thanks to Myles McNulty for a couple of sections that I’ve taken from his research notes which can be located in the link above.
Now, onto the more important product. The Pre-cision platform. The Pre-cision platform is basically a ‘Tumour Targeted Activation drug for Cancer Therapies’. It is a drug that is meant to reduce the toxicity of Chemotherapy whilst allowing a greater dosage of the drug. Avacta has recently gone into Clinical Phase 1 trials with AVA6000 to see whether the platform for Precision works. If so, this will open so many opportunities up as explained below.
I would highly recommend watching Avacta’s presentation and to read the Investors notes regarding this topic. I’ve copied a section from the Investors notes to try and explain the product and market.
The preclinical data for the first pro-chemotherapy, AVA6000 (a pro-drug form of doxorubicin) speak for themselves:
In mouse models, the administration of standard doxorubicin resulted in approximately the same concentration of the drug in heart tissue as in tumour tissue. This 1:1 ratio was expected: doxorubicin is not targeted, thus causing dose limiting, severe cardiotoxicity. Conversely AVA6000 – even when administered at a dose 6 times as potent as the control dose of doxorubicin – produced less doxorubicin exposure in the heart, while producing 18 times as much doxorubicin in the target tumour tissue compared with the heart.
This resulted in dramatic tumour shrinkage and a 100% survival rate at 60 days of the mice treated with AVA6000, compared with a 0% survival rate of the mice treated with standard doxorubicin.
In July month, Avacta commenced a Phase I human trial for AVA6000. Management expects first meaningful pharmacokinetic data by the end of this year/early 1st Quarter 2022. It is probable that that data will reveal explicitly whether the technology that has worked so extraordinarily well in mice, has been as effective in humans. If it is, then it stands to reason that the pre|CISION linker technology will also be effective when applied to other standard, currently non-targeted chemotherapies. In effect, it would open a very large segment of the global chemotherapy market – currently valued at approximately $60 billion per annum – to Avacta. Moreover, that current $60 billion market could be expanded dramatically. How? Not only could patients who had hitherto been limited to a handful of cycles (due to cardiotoxicity caused by standard doxorubicin) now receive multiple more cycles, using the pro-drug; but those who could not endure conventional chemotherapy at all could now receive chemotherapy in pro-drug form. 3/n
Thankfully Avacta has been focusing on the EU and APAC market rather than the UK market.
In the short term, I’m expecting the HUA to be given by the EU. This will trigger a news flow from Avacta & Medusa who I would expect will communicate large orders, or at least communicate the manufacturing capacity being used.
While it has been a very long time, I believe Avacta’s Covid LFT will be game changing and will positively impact the SP in the near future. Thankfully Avacta has been focusing on the EU and APAC market rather than the UK market.
In the short term, I’m expecting the HUA to be given by the EU. This will trigger a news flow from Avacta & Medusa who I would expect will communicate large orders, or at least communicate the manufacturing capacity being used.
While it has been a very long time, I believe Avacta’s Covid LFT will be game changing and will positively impact the SP in the near future. 2/n
Notes on Avacta
First thing is to talk about is the Share Price (SP). Sadly, the SP is completely disconnected from the true value of the company. Avacta is a medium sized company, listed on AIM. While AIM is a great place for small/new companies (especially Biotech companies) to be listed on due to fewer regulations and costs, companies that are listed on the AIM are a lot more volatile.
Many companies listed on AIM aren’t widely known and are not heavily invested by Funds and Investment companies. The main investors are PIs (personal investors) who are much more emotional, and confidence driven then Funds and Investment companies.
The SP has found a strong foundation around the 100p mark with the SP ranging from 95p to 140p mark over the past 4 months. The confidence in Avacta at this point of time is low however, as we know things can rapidly change. There are quite a few news items that are expected which could change the SP drastically.
I would highly recommend watching Avacta’s presentation which will explain the business model and the products that they are focusing on: (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiHYIrrgktc)
I would also recommend reading these research notes which has been put together by a professional Bitotech AIM Investor: https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2021/08/avacta-group-revised-investment-thesis-summary.pdf
There are two key items that will change the SP in the Short/Medium term. Updates regarding the Covid LFT and updates from the AV6000 Cancer Precision treatment.
We expect many news items from both products over the next 3 – 4 months.
Regarding the Covid LFT.
? It is currently one of the best Covid LFT out there in the market.
? We are currently producing 1-2m LFTs each month and selling them onto the EU market.
? We are partnered with Medusa-19 which was founded by the same founders as Bohoo (hugely successful e-commerce marketing company).
? Medusa-19 has the manufacturing capacity for LFT’s of around 20m per month however, their capacity will only come online when we receive the EU HUA (Home Use Authorization). We have been expecting approval for the HUA for some time but due to the amount of LFTs going through the EU approval process the timeline has extended. It is expected imminently.
? Covid is not going away and LFT’s will always be needed (especially travelling abroad).
? Vaccines are still the headline however, we know the efficiency of vaccines wanes and they don’t stop transmission of covid.
? Merck and Pfizer have produced a covid pill which reduces hospitalisation however, it is only successful when taken by people who are in the early stages of infectiousness. How would people identify that they are in the early stages of covid infectiousness? By taking a LFT.
My mistake has been thinking that the UK Government would support British technology especially if it’s the best test out in the market for the same price if not cheaper, however, I was wrong. 1/