Member Info for goldgnome

You could do a refrain for the next few weeks. It would go something like this

The higher equities market is driven by debt
The higher housing market is driven by debt
The marvellous economic recovery is driven by debt, and debt of such magnitude that it will take to 2060 to recover in Oz (mid you lots of assumptions here!?)!?

Debt is fine as long as you own it (not to a foreign supplier), and that the arbitrage driven by unscrupulous middlemen does not become rampant. But who can keep them out. No one has done it so far.
Some like those that live in the fine City of London, are protected by an unscrupulous government.

Watch gold, and watch the companies who are strongly leveraged to gold and are not immersed in debt (that word again), royalties and other encumemberances.

Tier ONE gold assets are not found every day, and not even every 10 years..or much more. But they are sought after, as they are... TIER ONE.

I do expect Centmin to be entertaining visitors for sometime.

If you cant find 'em, you gotta buy em, to GROW. And if you dont grow, then the SP goes down, you become undevalued, and someone helps themselves to your assets....

best
the Gnome

Yes 5 children, married a fine Irish Roman Catholic Las!

Sorry for not providing the link to the INTERGENERATIONAL report, for those Monty Python fans who are doing it tough in these times, and need additional entertainment of a certain kind.

I love that a lot is indexed in the CPI, or Consumer Price Index. A quick check on this by govt defintion
"The CPI is often used to measure changes in the cost of living, but it is not an ideal indicator of this. While the CPI measures price changes, costof- living inflation is the change in spending by households required to maintain a given standard of living." Well OK, nothing is an ideal measure so how did we go.

Alcohol and Tobacco prices weigh in at 8%, Health 6% and Education 4%. I lll let you do your won analysis and come to your own conclusions, but mine are without doubt heretical.

https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/inflation-and-its-measurement.html

Good luck to the next generation ... booze and tobacco may make you get through the night

I am off t take my medicine (scotch, shaken not stirred?)

best
the gnome

Thanks Red,

There is a poem of sorts from yon years which used to do the rounds of our house, ... which could well have been inspired in part from the Central Bankers new outcome focus. But can one really seperate the outcome from the process ... ?

Lord make Me an instrument of Your peace
Where there is hatred let me sow love.
Where there is injury, let me sow pardon.
Where there is doubt, let me sow faith.
....
Where there is sadness, joy.
O Divine master grant that I may
Not so much seek to be consoled as to console
To be understood, as to understand.
To be loved. as to love

For it's in giving that we receive
And it's in pardoning that we are pardoned
And it's in dying that we are born...
To eternal life.
Aaamen...

and its in ....

best
the gnome

Mildly amused at the new world metrics.

The bull equity markets are driven by low interest debt
The housing markets driven by low interest debt and what a bubble emerging
and ...
The marvellous economic recovery (at least in Australia) can now be measured in debt extending out to 2060. Talk about kick the can down the road? This is one hell of a kick! 2 + generations, come catch the ball (with gloves on please!)
My 5 children are not impressed. "You Boomers are leaving one hell of a legacy!"

enjoy your retirement, as there are quite a few who wont be able to ... for decades

best
the gnome

The punch has gone out of the Junior high risk/high reward sector in Oz. Possibly the covid bored investors/get rich group exiting....bad short term, good longer term.
The more serious investors are worried about inflation being almost inevitable. But the relaity of inflation is the buying power of the $ goes down, and that implies the value of gold goes up.
Land speculation is rampant in Oz. Dont bother with an open inspection, and who knows the value of any real estate, just go to auction, sell if you get an outrageous offer before. Top end porperty doing very well.

the gnome

Agreed Mr T. I think it is good time for people to review where and how they get their information. A lot of it is misinformation, ...poorly informed, has remarkably little scientific veracity or input...etc... The covid related reporting has been a case in point. In Australia people watching the TV are now on a fever pitch form of hysteria (the mass media is really little more than the mass hysteria here) about the virus 24/7, not realising that more people are dying from the "normal flu" and pneumonia, or in fact the vaccine of choice (which our politicians do not take?) for the over 50's or over 60's as it is now.
Following the above, one of the more informative sites for covid related is below
https://thebulletin.org/2021/06/caltechs-david-baltimore-discusses-the-debate-over-origins-of-sars-cov-2/

Why is there not more infromative discussion and debate on gain in funtion research?

Its a strange worled where we can have access to so much information at the touch of the screen, yet so much is useless, life drianing, life wasting and dare I mention manipulative. I feel for the Lemmings

best
the gnome

I think b2 gold would be a very good fit with CEY. The synergy in West Africa. The development capacity of the team in b2. The balance sheet and cash flow would be a lot stronger. Both have a committment and tethos of paying out a dividend. There would be admin savings, and a single stronger board, with a few seat warmers moved on.

best
the gnome

The language coming out fo the Fed is once again up to to the totally incredulous standard it used to be when Alan Greenspan used to mumble chaotically (borderline incoherent) to the bretheren. One day the Chairman of the Fed uses the words that we are living in times of EXTREME UNCERTAINTY (this implies there ecomoic models have no predictive power)...thats not just uncertainty but EXTREME uncertainty.

Now we hear words like...
Powell admitted that these temporary effects on INFLATION "have been HIGHER than WE EXPECTED, and they MAY turn out to be MORE PERSISTENT than WE EXPECTED."

However, he did state that the incoming data is still CONSISTENT with the view that these factors will "WANE OVER TIME" as the Fed continues to monitor them carefully. "We SEE STRONG DEMAND, while the supply side has been CAUGHT A LITTLE BUT FLAT FOOTED."

LOL, I would place more faith in the Easter Bunny delivering me an e-type Jaguar next April, or better still a ton of gold!

best
the gnome

A Chicago court has sentenced a former Deutsche Bank AG trader to a year and one day in prison on Monday on fraud charges for manipulative trading in precious metals futures, saying the scheme undermined confidence in the markets.


According to the Reuters report, U.S. District Judge John Tharp Jr stated that the sentence for James Vorley, 41, from England was warranted to broadly deter other traders at banks from manipulative conduct.

He went on to say "Everyone who works in the financial markets has to be reminded and understand that attempts to manipulate the market by any means will expose them to substantial criminal sanctions,".

Prosecutors noted at trial that Vorley and his ex-colleague Cedric Chanu defrauded market participants by placing and then cancelling decoy orders to move commodities prices between 2008 and 2013.

Chanu, who is of French and Arab origin, was convicted on seven counts of wire fraud and is scheduled to be sentenced on 28th June.

Avi Perry, assistant chief of the Criminal Division's Fraud Section, argued for a sentence of four years and nine months, saying the sentence was needed to deter others and restore faith in the markets.

"The conduct here perpetuates the perception and unfortunately, the reality, that our markets are unfair," he said.

Vorley and Chanu participated in a multi-year conspiracy to defraud other traders through spoofing, this

The speculators will panic for a little while and then business will resume ...

Thanks Mr T

Richard Schodde has made his business around tracking discoveries for 40+ years. He is a keynote speaker at all of the major global exploration conferences (PDAC, New Generation Gold, Diggers and Dealers etc), consultant and govt advisor on all continents. Very well connected, very committed. I think Richard also subscribes to SandP Mining Intelligence, which we set up some decade or 2 ago.
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/metals-mining

Kees can contact him at the below link
https://minexconsulting.com/contact-us/
He will learn a few things without doubt

best
the gnome

In 2000, gold was trading at around $290 an ounce, roughly a 700% gain in slightly under 30 years from 1970....
the monetary base had grown from about $75 billion to over $600 billion in the same time frame, roughly a 700% gain as well.....

since the financial crisis in 2008, monetary expansion has taken off. By 2020, both the monetary base and gold's price were up by around 4,400% from their levels in 1970.

....However, gold's price is lagging monetary expansion now lagging...The monetary base is at approximately $6 trillion now, up by roughly 8,000% from 1970. Yet, gold's price is only up about 4,800%, as the yellow metal has not kept up with rapid money printing in recent years.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

This lag could prove transitory, and gold needs to appreciate by roughly 67% to catch up to the monetary base advances. A 67% increase relative to current prices would put gold at about $3,000 an ounce.
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-prices?gclid=CjwKCAjw8cCGBhB6EiwAgORey85R4gHO9vvXfPhaKMzKNxoj8Ok1H8i07BHdR4T3qzgR2jI3tBpfnhoChRoQAvD_BwE
Also, there is no guarantee that the monetary base will stop growing or will decrease. Provided all the variables like massive debt, U.S. trade imbalances, inflation, low productivity and low-interest rates, the monetary base will likely expand from here...

So bet 1. Gold to $2k p ozs in 6 months
and bet 2? Gold to $3k+ Ozs 12-18 months

good luck to us all.

best
the gnome

And I am buying...

SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD TIME TO BY TO ME....

We are in a MandA frenzy in Oz, and my bet is that for the same raft of reasons (+1) you will see this in the gold mining sector.

The +1, is that there have been very few gold discoveries, so organic growth is and has been off the cards for a decade now.
https://minexconsulting.com/trends-in-gold-exploration-with-a-special-focus-on-quantifying-discovery-performance/
How does a mining company grow, when they have no greenfields exploration success?

The performance so far in the broader industry in 2021 is even eclipsing the golden era of M&A that arrived in the wake of the global financial crisis and peaked in 2011, when $US56.9 billion of deals were announced to this point in the year....been $US64.3 billion ($82.8 billion) of deals announced so far this year, and we ae only half way through.

I expect the gold mining industry to start ocmpeting in the MandA stakes a lot more....

best
the gnome

Reminds me of a time when I was in Bamako, looking at all of the swish new Government buildings, with some African friends. The friend from Burkina remarked : "What a silly thing to do, now it is far easier to enact the Coup d'état, all the politicians are in one place" My Malian friend said, they were over this sort of behaviour in Mali (!?) unlike Burkina Faso. Well score Burkina Faso 1 (in 2014) and Mali 4.7, and thats in the last 10 years (2 in the last 12 months). Why the 4.7 you ask? Well in Mali they count a bit different to others. There are partial Coup d'état's, where they only talk loudly (where no one gets shot).

An aside, when filling out an application form for a Malian friend to become a Director of a company, I aked him his age. He said it was "64 turn back 2". I said I did not think I could write that down on the government form, and besides I did not know what he meant. He said it was because in Mali one had to retire when you are 65 years old, so each time he gets to turn to 65 years old, he turns the clock back a few years! He is now 64 turn back 3.

Funny world, enjoy it while you can !!!

best
the gnome

If you are looking for productivity gains (not to mention SP growth etc) in a "covid littered world", shipping news and money around by wires and cables, and making it secure, is probably the most secure place to invest in, although there is a large amount of "smokes, snakes and mirrors", so be careful

best
the gnome

Thanks Cowichan,
There are continuous disclosure laws, and also good business ethos, in letting the owners (shareholders) of the company know what is going on, and the results of the investments of the shareholders money. Centamin have a lot to improve espcially with respect tot he West African Investments, and the buck stops at the Board of Directors, who are an ordinary lot by performance.

I believe you should also contact the Governance committee, and this can be done through
Darren Le Masurier
Company Secretary
T: +44 1534 828 700
E: governance@centamin.je
Subject: Continuous Disclosure
......the policy phrase below
2.1 The Company adheres to continuous disclosure requirements as specified in its
Continuous Disclosure Policy, and will promptly release to both the London Stock
Exchange (“LSE”) and Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”), all communications of material
information, including but not limited to financial statements, operational results and other
statements of importance

https://www.centamin.com/media/1627/cey_shareholder-communications-policy_2019.pdf

Good luck, but they have to move to best business practises.

regards
the gnome

Mr T
10 year government bonds are assets which mature in 10 years. What happens between now and 10 years time is dictated by the investor appetite for the 10 year bonds, which are sold on various exchange/market.
https://www.australiangovernmentbonds.gov.au/how-invest
https://www.bondexchange.com.au/invest-in-bonds-with-abx/
Personally I (and an increasing number) prefer Corproate bonds, where one can pick and chose the corporation. Some are much more reliable than governments in returning a decent ROI !?
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Economics/deloitte-au-economics-corporate-bond-report-2018-030518.pdf
cheers
the gnome