Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Paddy,
Thanks for the explanation I think I've got it now. I always believed that RIO had the bit below Scallywag which Scallywag seems to extend into to some extent although the major part is in our territory. Personally, I'm looking forward to an update on a drilling programme at Scally.
Paddy, am I right in thinking that the RIO part would include a Southern extension of Scallywag which would be why GGP want it. he aero magnetics on GGP's website seem to show a continuation into what is the RIO coloured territory.
Bonum, yes excellent post. I think you've summarised the position very accurately.
Like many others here I'm sitting well underwater with this share but confident for the future. As you say we have found oil just waiting form the process of getting out to be completed. Good to see a rise in price as cannot understand how we dropped tom these levels based on what we have. That said the market is impatient and hates waiting around so I guess that's the reason. GLA
Good Morning Paddy, you and I are neighbours as i'm close to Solihull as well and there are handful of my co-workers who are LTH as well. I got in around Oct 18 on the back of HAD005 with an average of around 2 so enjoying the ride now. Anyway love the posts. I agree with your view on a takeover being premature. I think Newcrest still have 70% JV 's in place in other junior miners. I'm sure I read somewhere that their business model is to leave the juniors with something which then rewards them and encourages them to go off and hunt out new prospects rather than buy them out. Might have been in a news article somewhere.
GLA
Scallywag is very close to Havieron as well.
From the Greatland web page;
The Scallywag prospect lies approximately 6km west of the Havieron prospect within the Havieron licence, E45/4701, and is 100% owned by Greatland. Newcrest have first refusal over this as part of the JV I believe? However, why wouldn't they want it if its another Havieron.
You need to watch MB's presentation from earlier this year. He is expecting Heron to provide a revenue stream which has evaded PM previously. In that presentation he seems keen to reverse the history of PM raising cash through a placing and appears to be dead against such a move. My opinion, for what its worth, is there is no prospect of a placing whislt this is being proved commercial, its completely against MB's stated intentions. As ever DYOR, GLA. btw topped up a little more yesterday on this news.
Did a little background on Xcite Energy. Their offshore North Sea Bentley Field was 265mmb but I'm sure those who were involved at the time can give more detail. This is looking nice though. GLA
Yes, agreed very likely. Both sides will need to agree on how to best exploit the reserve which straddles the respectime licence areas. Additionally petro china have the refining capability for rapid commercialisation. Interesting negotiation for MB and the team when that happens.
https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/four-exploration-wells-planned-for-2019/23264
Valuation: Risked value of four planned exploration prospects
Our valuation is based on the expected monetary value (EMV) of four prospects: Heron, Gazelle, Red Deer and either a Raptor prospect or Fox in Block V. Applying suitable risking, we reach a risked valuation of 41.3p/share (prior to 50% value dilution through farm-out) at $70/bbl long-term (NPV12.5) on the assumption that the company’s four-well programme ($18m excluding overhead and PSC costs) is funded through our forecast $23m year-end 2018 cash balance. We estimate development project IRRs in the 50–120% range depending on discovery size, which we believe should attract farminee interest considering the exploration running room. Our updated base case valuation of 20.4p/share assumes $70/bbl Brent (2022) and a conservative 50% value dilution through farm-out (see Appendix A for further details). However, we note that if Petro Matad can debt finance development, this would be potentially less dilutive. Equity funding at the current share price would significantly reduce our per share valuation.
Some essential reading here as well. This Edison report covers all the drills planned for this year.
https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/four-exploration-wells-planned-for-2019/23264/
blissful, yes indeed it that's was it flow tests results Aug/September. It would be good if they can spud a little early at Heron, make up the slippage and get closer to the original time frame.
The other issue for the year is that the drilling season is time critical in Mongolia and whilst were along way from November, delays now could have a knock on the remaining drills of Red Deer and Velociraptor but I believe MB does speak of keeping the rig at Heron if the results are positive. I assume he wants to commercialise the resource as quick as possible as that's his revenue stream for the exploration drills.
An interesting point he made was that petro China aren't doing any exploration only production which leaves the field to Matad and others but also that production on their oilfields is declining so they would rely on exploration companies to find their next resource. That would explain their willingness to share data and why unitisation is going to happen as long as we find oil. MB said other than that he had no idea regarding what they would want out of any deal. The proactive investors presentation really is informative and I'd urge any share holder to view it if the6y haven't already and maybe more than once. Its most informative on this years drill programme.
Bones15 - I was looking timescales yesterday and what MB says during the proactive investors meeting In March together with the last RNS. The RNS says they're looking to spud early July, that's slipped a little from the March presentation when he was hopeful of a spud date in late May early June. After that he says that the contractor says a drill time of 3 weeks for Heron, as he's not worked for PM before MB says he'd add a little to that maybe 4-5 weeks overall but that he'd be expecting full results late August/September. So , my reading of that is we could be a bit later than that for results due to the spud date slippage but it may move quicker if all goes well. The time scale question is asked by the female host at the end of the presentation. Worth a look, you'll find it on youtube but it provides more detail as MB see's it and discusses the mobilisation of the two rig drill.
Blissful, all correct in the presentation you refer to MB is determined to find oil in Heron/Gazelle as he wants an income stream. He is very definite on this point and he is determined that PM will be self funding for Velociraptor etc. That's his stated aim and I don't why he'd change that at the moment.
BB Good point. At the March presentation MB is asked about Unitisation which he says cannot be ruled out esp given Petro China's approach to PM and them sharing their data. As I understand from that presentation Petro China are not producing oil from that block at present. Therefore Unitisation would be to the benefit of both parties.
The purpose of a unitisation agreement is to establish the unit from the two or more licence or contract areas which contain the reservoir by unitising the licensees respective interests and to provide for the development, operation and decommissioning of the unit.
First post but I've been in this share since last year, got in at 9.7 but I've averaged down to 7.9. I'd like to top up more, preferably lower than todays price as I missed out on the real dips not having the funds readily available. However, I'm not unhappy with my position. So there's my position in the open GLA