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Thank you ever so much ISA.
I won't bother you again to answer to the following questions on my request, posted on CEO.com.
However, just want to mention that I've ask those from what I've heard directly from Segun in past interviews on KEreport and Crux Investors.
As we could hear on recent interviews this week, I will make sense to restructure the long term debt as it will have been half reimbursed by September 2022, and then to follow a low payment of 1M$ per quarter after that. As that debt was designed to support a project in developpement, it would be wise to convert it to a running and profit generating project over a longer period, to give some more flexibility with the cash flow generated from operations .
Those free cash flow could be then invested into bigger allocations for drilling, OR maybe declare dividends.
It may sound early for dividends, but it's really coming from what Segun has mentionned before. Maybe not a huge amount but I strongly believe it wouldn't hurt the share price that seems stuck in such a low position.
Of course, discovering some maiden ressource close to the actual mill would also drive the SP up, well, hopefully. The market doesn't seem to respond decently to such profitable as Thor, unless there is some real hard cash distributed to shareholders prooving that everything is going well.
I was really glad to hear that the exploration lab is now commissionned and running, so we'll start to have drilling results more frequently until the end of the year.
Well done again to Segun and Thor Exploration team, this is a company I am so proud to have discovered and invested in.
GLTYA
Goldenboy
Hi all !
ISA, may I ask you to reply to Crux investor' interviewers on CEO.Com, as I don't have a account to do so ?
You may of course suggest him every question you have, but if you could add some of these below, I'd appreciate a lot !
1) Segun, could you please confirm the commissionning and the starting operation of the Exploration Lab ?
2) Segun, is there any plan or strategy to restructure/refinance the debt after it's lowered to 29% with the payment in late September, as the interest bearing rate is quite high and could get higher with interest rate hike to come.
3) Segun, is there any short term plan to declare dividends ?
4) Can you please provide some thoughts on the strategies and events that could finally drive the sp as it should be right now ? (mix of near mine ore discoveries, dividends, etc)
Thank you very much in advance ISA and all other for your posts. Always great to hear.
GLTYA
Goldenboy
Thanks ISA ! Just trying to do my part here. : )
The interview is awesome, as always. I've got answers to my questions. Regarding the delays in the laboratory commissionning, well, sh... happens , right ? : )
Here below some marketing stuff, I thought nice to share with you guys.
https://www.***************************/thor-explorations-ltd-51.9-potential-upside-indicated-by-canaccord-genuity/4121061131
Thor Explorations Ltd 51.9% potential upside indicated by Canaccord Genuity
Canaccord Genuity set a target price of 40 GBX for the company, which when compared to the Thor Explorations Ltd share price of 19 GBX at opening today (13/04/2022) indicates a potential upside of 51.9%. Trading has ranged between (52 week low) and 19 (52 week high) with an average of 244,844 shares exchanging hands daily. The market capitalisation at the time of writing is £205,098,907.
Thor Explorations Ltd is a Canada-based gold exploration and development company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties in West Africa. Its projects include Segilola Gold Project, Douta Project and Central Hounde Project. Its Segilola Gold Project is located in Osun State of Nigeria, approximately 120 kilometers (km) northeast of Lagos. The property consists of mining license ML41 and exploration license EL19066. The Douta Project is located in the southeast region of Senegal within the Kenieba inlier, proximal to the Main Transcurrent Shear Zone. The Central Hounde Project consists of three contiguous permits located within the Hounde belt, approximately 260 km south-west of the capital Ouagadougou, in western Burkina Faso.
The share price for Thor Explorations Ltd. (THX.L) is currently trading at GBp17.00 (0.00%)
Best Regards and GLTYA !
Second post from SnowshoeDB
"I see a great open pit with very high grade in a risky country. Offset against that risk is a company that can generate $100 million worth of free cash flow in 2023 With its existing mine and resources. Potential upside is finding additional resources that it can mine nearby and also the exploration and development in Senegal and Burkina Faso… Two more risky locations. But that hundred million dollars of free cash flow puts the stock at 60-85 cents With conservative multiples. I'll take that risk… Because if they expand the resources or find another mine then we are looking at a $2.50 stock… And I see that is good odds for a 10 bagger to be had here within the next 3 to 5 years.
That would mean a compounded return of 55% per annum… So here's my potential return…
1) lose it all
2) double to triple by the end of 2023
3) 10 bagger by mid 2027.
I think the probability of a double or triple by the end of 2023 it's about 70%. I think the loss of it all or attend bagger is 15% for each… Yep I'll take that bet"
Hi RedRoy and everyone,
Welcome aboard to you RedRoy and of course to your contribution.
I do agree with everything mentionned so far about Q1 update. If I can express only one critique, it would be about the delayed commissionning of the exploration laboratory.
"Sample turnaround in Nigeria is currently being affected by the delayed commissioning of the exploration laboratory which the Company anticipates will be commissioned in July 2022. Until the exploration lab is commissioned, the Company continues to send its samples to third party laboratories in Ghana and Canada."
If I remember correctly, that laboratory was supposed to be in action by septembre 2021, and mentionned to a NR to provide regular feed in driling information, compared to several weeks of delays to obtain results from third parties laboratories located in Canada and other places. I can understand a operating mine is complex to bring up to an effective and constant operational stage, but thinking about a small laboratory... I can't figure it out why they had so much problems and issues with it. We'll have to wait until Q3 (I know, it's not very further in time as we are now in June), to get interesting results from that lab.
I really hope we get other interesting results from those third parties laboratories soon, as I also beleive LOM extension is now a key driver to finally brings that shareprice to an acceptable level.
Here below some copy and paste of some other posts on THX from other boards, like stockhouse and CEO.com. I could only find one poster "snowshoedb" that seems quite intelligent in his language and calculation on Stockhouse, maybe some of you could comments on his thoughts ?
(ISA, thank you very much for your indepth response to my question about the gold spot price contract).
POSTS FROM SNOWSHOESDB on stockhouse (1/2 post, second one will come from another post from me)
1) "Company was profitable for Q3 & Q4 of 2021:
Q4 = $0.0050/share with production of 9,921 Ounces of gold and likely only 50% of it was sold.
With 21,000 ounces produced in Q1 2022... I'm anticipating a much more significant EPS assuming no material changes to Fixed Costs and Variable Production Costs. I'm hoping for between1.5-2.5 cents/share or better.
If the company can make 12 cents/year. Stock price should be a multiple of:
earnings/share x 7-15 times
EBITDA x 4-8 times
Going forward... if they can grow the AU resource at any of their 3 properties..then the LOM and future cash flows of the company will be extended. Thor has a great opportunit to grow and stock price will grow with. I'm expecting 300,000 - 500,000 ounce growth from exploration in 2022. That means they can increase resources by 40%-80%. Hoping for finding costs of $10-$15/ounce.
Looking forward to the Q1 release in the future, then we should get a good idea of cost structure. "
Regards, Golbenboy
Totally agree with you ISA not so much to say at the moment.
I would still enjoy to hear from Segun and ask him some questions at the AGA, which is still mandatory to make if I'm right. Just to hear a confirmation of progress made just on the switch of energy source system (to compressed natural gas) would be awesome, with the current Diesel price.
Also, regarding your comment that we're somewhat dependant of the Gold Price, I've found this on the Final Results NR and would like to have your thoughts on, if it's possible :
"Post reporting date, and in order to support the Company's cashflows during the early period of debt repayment (March-July 2022), the Company entered into a commodity price protection program which has been implemented on a zero-cost collar basis. The program provides price protection for 22,500 ounces of gold representing approximately 55% of the forecast production of approximately 8,000 ounces per month.
The program provides price support for 3,000 ounces per month at US$1,820/oz and 1,500 ounces per month at US$1,860/oz with a cap at US$1,930/oz and US$2,000/oz respectively."
Thanks again ISA for your time and you guys all have a great day !
(Nice to see share price progressing (slowly, quitely but surely) on the TSX-V and LSE. Someone is still accumulating beleiving "it's out there", and it could be in Thor !)
Hello everyone !
Thank you all for your time and good posts, very interesting information until May 6th, after what everything stopped while the recent turmoil on the market started to take place.
I don't know if you will agree with me, but I'm far from convinced that it would be even a good timing for Thor to release a significant ore discovery around Segilola and Makosa, within such deteriorating market conditions.
I guess the recent drop in Gold price (nothing to compared with other index, though) is mostly caused by margin calls and that the situation will get better soon and fast (i.e. the gold reserve is empty in those brokers and investors hands).
That being said, do you guys have any uptdate or heard from the AGA that has to be held on the annual 2021, Q1 and maybe Q2 2022 financial results ? I can't wait to hear good news from Segun and maybe some good questions from you ISA-Investors, Raxfactor, Chique, Genghis15 and all other that have contributed to this board ?!
Take care, GLTYA, and thanks again for the quality of your posts.
Best Regards,
Goldenboy
That being said
Hi everyone !
Amazing posts in terms of numbers and content.
I agree with everything written in them, I would only add the following points to the discussion :
1) My biggest concern is to Thor making another stoppage of the plant, as they did for couple times or days earlier. Segun did first mention in September some teething problems that were all resolved, then they had to stop the plant in October because of red flags, and other critical problems. With great team work with the constructor, they could restart the mine and do some production, but never achieved (so far) expected and designed rate of returns. Should that pace or rate of return keep going, they might take the decision to stop the mine to adress, reconfigure and re built some or a huge part of the mine, and that means a stop in production and then free cash flow to be generated.
If the number of ounces produced weekly and mentionned by Segun at the AGM (1500 ounces a week, close to 75% of all the planing they've done) stay at that level, it could be significant enough to vote for a stoppage of the mine.
I have experienced such a stoppage in the past and the effect has been devastating for a considerable period of time.
I really hope we can rely on significant improvements that will be confirmed soon with the annual guidance so I can adress that concern.
2) As ISA mentionned it, producing gold at 75% of their planification is still really acceptable, and would mostly and only impact on the debt reimbursment schedule. As the gold once price stays at an interesting level and could go higher, it could help THX to still reimburse all debt in a timely manner and consider paying dividends to remunerate shareholders.
However, market won't budge for this stock until the dividends are declared and that won't happen tomorow.
I wonder now if Hannam & Partners will lower their target price in the same time of the new production guidance to be released.
I still strongly beleive in this company and in Segun competence, but my expectation for a quick, strong and positive re-rating have been significantly reduced.
Good luck to you all and many thanks for your posts here, on CEO.com and stockhouse.com
Goldenboy
Hi ISA !
I wish I could hear you asking question, other than the change of auditors matter asked from another person.
I am glad you've got a different and way more positive perspective than mine and trust me, there's nothing more that I want to believe and benefit in THX.
You're right about the guidance, it's totally understandable.
Regarding the annual "free" cash flow to be expected from 2022, I agree that even with 78koz at under 700 AISC is something very appreciable, but it's a huge cut back from what was calculated. It is not to forget that they have the debt to pay back, and until it's done, the free cash flow available to shareholder just won't there.
If they can't get to produce at the rate anticipated (onces of gold and recovery rate), what tells us so far that the AISC will be kept under 700USD ?
Thanks for your comments.
(On a personnal note, as you could see my face and identify me at the AGM, feel free to give me some hints about yours if you want : ) ).
Best Regards,
Goldenboy
Hi ISA !
Jeeeeez, i think I was the only one shareholder from this chat, CEO.com, and stockhouse combined.
I could ask all questions I wanted, but I couldn't believe it in the right time so I did only ask two :
What is to be expected from the drilling around Segilola : "Nothing significant from the first 4000 meters".
They built another laboratory closer to the mine, so they could have results way faster than the usual 6 weeks.
They will put the last drilling meters into that labs to get results to be published in January 2022.
That's why I think they've been looking with other businesses and for joint ventures with them. : (((
Can you give us the guidance related to 2021 gold production ? "No because we were advised to not to from our regulators".
Other than that, Segun mentionned that they're rounding 1500 onces per week (whaaaaat ?! 75k a year ?!) and way under what they were expecting to be (also in terms in Gold Recovery rate !!), but they remain really excited for 2022....
And that was that ISA, nothing more. It did last 10 to 15 minutes, top.
I will take some time to re think about all that, I must say that I am quite disapointed from their last months performance (even though It was to be expected when you startup such huge project). However, I just like and trust Segun Lawson and his judgment.
He is so honest and humble, and quite skilled for his job.
Feel free to ask question, I will do my best to provide answers for what I know.
Goldenboy
Wow ! Thanks a lot, well appreciated.
I listened to last interview (from the link reposted below), and I was quite please to confirm your thoughts and positive notes from it.
http://www.kereport.com/2021/12/01/thor-explorations-a-maiden-resource-estimate-at-douta-a-new-discovery-at-mansa-and-an-operational-update-at-segilola/
In brief (and for other posters acknowledgment), all issues have been resolved since the end of October, and the plant has been running at over capacity in November. That's probably why they could gather and pour 8.5k ounces in such short period of time during the month.
Do you think that the last shipment made on November 30th was excluding the 4k onces produced and mentionned in the last news release ? If so, we could be looking for 4k ounces in October, 8.5k ounces in November, 10k ounces in December, so a total of 22.5k onces versus 30k ounces initialy expected ? That's not too bad to me !
There is still some news and clarity to obtain, good or bad as you say, about the drilling at Segilola' surrounding. As they've mentionned that the results are pending from the drilling, why they couldn't wait for them before spending money on other claims...
Time will tell I guess. I remain very positive and long term investor in THX, lots of strong indicators tell me that patience will be greatly rewarded.
Thanks again ISA, great pleasure to chat with you and read your posts.
Goldenboy
Hi ISA,
Thanks for your great posts.
I am slightly disappointed as well. I thougth from what I've heard from previous interviews with Segun that all issues were resolved and that the mine was opperating smoothly.
What I like from how they structured the deal and the construction of the mine, is that the contractor won't get fully paid until the mine is full operating at the level of performance it was designed for.
When they mention that the operations during the period and issues encountered could not feed the plant with more than 2g/t, is it correct to say that it's not the ore that doesn't have the richness expected but rather that the richer ore was kept on the side until the plant is totally operational ?
Also, I am wondering a lot on the fact that Segun mentionned couple times of that 4 or 6 000 meters drilling program was on going around truckable distance from Segilola. We haven't get any news from that program (nor it was to be extended to 10 000 meters), but otherwise got information that Thor was acquiring other licenses and exploiting other sites and claims. Should we be worried that those new targets won't be at near distance from the actual mine, and that the news aren't good from the drilling program that was made ?
Thanks again for your thoughts on this.
Best Regards,
Goldenboy
Sorry, I meant Cut off Grade, instead of Strip ratio.
ISA, would you have any comments on that metric as well ?
Thanks again !
Hi ISA,
Thanks a lot for that repost (many thanks to Empire too, indeed).
May I please ask for the complete report, as I have the one from April 2021, and I would like to track and follow the key points expressed previously by Hannam in this last release.
I totally understand if it's not possible (as it may cost some money to get it).
Thanks in advance.
...
The market seems to not react (as anticipated) from the latest NR and Douta MRE. The strip ratio is really low, but is consistent with Segun last interview. The resource has been drilled only at surface, NOT at depth, and still remains open at North. Segun wanted to keep going with surface drilling to really have a better picture of how large and big that beauty is
I totally agree with you ISA, they're building a success story there, big time !
Goldenboy
Good day ISA-Investor,
I agree with you. I could read on CEO.com that Canacord could be behind that buying momentum. Some posters even mentionned a buyout, which would be really surprising, considering the kind of success Thor is currently going through.
However, even if the aquirer would have to pay a lot to get its hands on this puppy, it would be still a good timing, before the big news are out and the SP reflecting such Segilola' supplemental ore reserve at truck distance, Douta's ore reserve confirmation and its mine factory being in construction.
Speaking of wich, I was expecting some good news about those topics to be released in September and October, as I've heard through the two last interviews done by Kereport with Segun.
That company has turned over the past months their promises and commitment to reality, usually in a timely manner.
I hope Segun won't get "burned" on his ore target prediction this time, and will annonce that the 4 000 meters drill programm will be expansionned to a 10 000 meter in Segilola, to confirm LOM extension.
Thanks again for the quality of your posts ISA, have a great day from where you are.
Regards and GLTYA
Goldenboy
That's pure music at my ears.
I totally agree, thank you very much for your post.
Just by curiosity, would you please share some of your knowledge about "LTH" and ore deposit around segilola ?
Thanks again ISA-Investor
Goldenboy
Good day Timid,
Thanks for your comments, I appreciate.
For the AIM listing, I agree, nothing huge so far, but I can affirm that it's way better than nothing, when I compare what does THX in terms of publicity to others companies (sweet nothing).
The market is still really picky and won't budge until gold is sold and the profits converted in dividends. The company may discover huge ore deposit in Senegal, but the share price might stay where it is as long as other deposits are found and mined at proximity of segilola.
Until then, the fundamentals of this puppy are the best I could find so far and I'm willing to wait as long as needed to see Thor's promises and Hanam & Partners predictions become reality.
Thanks again for your comments and feel free to share some more when you can.
GLTYA
Goldenboy
That silence will be broken, you can count on it !
NEWS OUT : COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION IS ON !
"Mine Development
The mine is fully operational with approximately 90,000 tonnes of ore material mined to the end of the third quarter. In addition to this, two ore zones have been prepared for commencement of higher-grade direct tip operation in October.
The mining fleet has been fully commissioned and mine production has continued through the wet season, with particularly heavy rainfall in September, which is now subsiding as we approach the dry season which typically runs from late October to early March.
Processing Plant
The process plant is now consistently operating in-line with its design throughput capacity of 715,000 tonnes per annum.
During the ramp-up, a number of minor faults were identified including a faulty heat exchanger at the mill and a faulty valve which was found to be limiting the performance of the gravity circuit. There were also a number of supply chain issues relating to the supply of good quality activated carbon. All faults have been rectified by the EPC contractor and supply chain issues have been resolved.
Segun Lawson, President & CEO, stated: "I am pleased that the Segilola Gold Mine has achieved Commercial Production and also pleased to report that the mine is running smoothly at design throughput capacity. The team has worked tirelessly through the unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic and have done an excellent job overcoming various teething issues during the commissioning of the plant. This is a significant achievement and marks the start of an exciting growth phase for the Company through the combination of stable high grade gold production and exploration potential in the region around Segilola and progress on our Douta project in Senegal."
I have to say that I am concerned to with the recent share price drop. Maybe some change of hands, for some investors that were mainly explorer focused and wanted to stay in such other companies looking for discoveries instead of producing gold.
Or maybe because Thor has achieved so much and was being targeted by a bigger shark that wants to keep the price low before aquiring it. Only God knows.
For now, only good news are to come, steady high grade production, low AISC, new ore discoveries at truckable distance and open pit around segilola to exploit, and a DFS to release from the outstanding ore resource found in the gigantic lode at Douta in Senegal !
Buckle up Gents, this thing is GONNA FLY NOW !
GLTYA
Goldenboy