RE: RE: New Shard note.26 Oct 2021 16:57
Of course they will publish it. Its a marketing document.not independent research.
As K3VMC says its just an expension of the RNS. It does make refernece to a 2022+ note being created shortly though.
"We have updated our model to reflect new guidance. We now assume 622t of concentrate production for FY21 (down from 882t) and have conservatively elongated ramp-up which pushes 2022 production down to 1,600t concentrate (from 2,500t). We have also tweaked down tin recovery assumptions until further clarity emerges. This results in a reduction in our estimate of fair value to 19p/sh from 23p/sh, based on a blend of NAV and forward EBITDA. There are still reasons to be optimistic; the European APT price continues to nudge higher (now in the $315-$320/mtu range) and the tin price remains strong (LME spot $38,950/t). The transition to profitability is in sight if WRES can maintain production without interruption, push throughput and manage any interim funding requirements. Operating costs are not disclosed and remain difficult However, challenges remain whilst the operation is still in a fledgling state and the stop-start nature of unplanned plant maintenance and optimisation is a fly in the ointment that has stopped La Parrilla having a straight run at ramp-up. Torrential rain is still causing some grief and a silo is being constructed to provide one week’s worth of dry ore feed. Power outages also adversely impacted plant utilisation during the quarter and a water treatment plant is being leased to improve water quality feed to the process plant. Tin metallurgical recovery still appears to be well below target and this will require further focus going forward."
Plant maintenance issues and supply chain bottlenecks associated with the above challenges have led to lower plant availability. Consequently, WRES has adjusted down its full year production guidance for 2021 to between 650t and 750t of concentrate, c.25% lower than the inaugural guidance of 880t - 1,000t of concentrate. Current concentrate production YTD 2021 amounts to 415t which would have required a big Q4 (min 465t) to meet the lower range of previous guidance. Whilst WRES expects Q4 production to be greater than Q3, it does not expect to hit the target T2 production rate (2Mtpa ROM, c.2,500t concentrate) until Q1 2022. This looks achievable but will require a continuation of the high tungsten recovery, better plant utilisation d and a big push in ROM tonnes as the T2 rates implies quarterly ROM throughput of 500kt.
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