Member Info for GoCPI

Good luck, SK. A win is a win.

Economic data from our biggest market is finally helping the cause of interest rates - CPI finally came in cooler than expected after 6 months of hotter than expected data. 10Yr treasury is dropping a bit and will maybe set the scene for a September cut. Retail sales are flat and that's another 'not bullish' data point.

If and when a rate cut materialises in the US, that's a very positive data point for S4 and its customers. Not too long hopefully.

Certainly looks like it, RedWineDay. If anyone bothered to do even basic research, you'd know that cash payments were done after Q1 but there were a few million shares to be issued in 2024 and 2025.

When will we have a day like the below? This smaller core holding of mine is probably benefiting from the upcoming China tariffs on. However, we need to be on that market (NYSE), don't we? ;-)

I like buying bargain shares and holding them. I don't bother trading in case I get caught out on a day like the one that Maxeon is having - to each their own though!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAXN?.tsrc=fin-srch

My last point on this topic - only on the shallow LSE can you have the SP brought down circa 25% without any volume, as we saw play out in April/early May. And there's no real bounce that we can speak of in the SP even though MS had a few positive things to say on the earnings call, and the PE/competition vultures are circling because of our shiite valuation on this moribund stock market. Mini rant over!! ;-)

"It also means a lot of time spent on meeting regulation there.

It is not as great as what may appear ... European companies that list in the US generally under perform US domestic listings"

Poker - The issue is more the first line that you wrote - they'll have to put out detailed quarterly revenues/P&L, and also provide guidance. It's a major headache versus the LSE, where they don't need to put in as much effort. It's an easy way out of dealing with such strict US requirements.

For all intents and purposes, S4 is a US company as that's where their vast majority of revenue base is. I get that the top tier management is based here, but that's that.

As you and others have written already today, it's not likely that MS will go down the US listing route although it's unequivocally beneficial for S4's shareholders and I suppose that's the reality we have to live with - the valuation gap will never be filled. We should yet get a few multiples of the current price once the market turns for S4 and revenue growth ensues.

"GoCPI, I agree, I've been saying this for over 2 years. I even emailed SMS to ask why not have a Nasdaq listing, his reply was it's not an easy thing to do. Well plenty of other companies are managing to do it."

Thanks, NigeCo. You're spot on - it's never an easy thing to do, but you need to consider what's good for the wider shareholder base, and for me that's moving the primary listing to the NYSE. I suppose the accounting delays faux pas back in 2022 is still on Martin's mind when he said it wasn't easy, but it's not like they're still doing large scale acquisitions at this time that warrants a cautious view on moving the primary listing to the US.

Ultimately if he's really serious about extracting the best possible value for shareholders, he and Mary should really consider a primary listing move to the US given our revenue/profitability profile that's skewed towards that region.

The NYSE primary listing move is what CRH did back in May last year - link below. They have 75% EBITDA coverage from the US and hence was a prudent move. The stock's now at all-time highs up from £38 when the move was announced last May to £65 now - they're still retaining their LSE listing, but the reporting currency is now USD.

That is what a primary US listing can do for us -- it just needs Martin and Mary to get off their backsides and make it happen.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crh-plc-announces-transition-us-133000446.html

What's most likely, IMO, is that Martin waits till an agency ad market turnaround takes hold, particularly for tech clients, and a recovering share price will then give S4 a much better negotiating position.

It's also foolish to continue to have S4's primary listing in the UK as it chronically undervalues us in the market - I find it hard to understand why he hasn't started to explore a primary listing on the NYSE. It's a no-brainer given the depth of the market there and our revenues are circa 80% from North America. That should be step one to get S4's SP on a path to sustainable medium to long term recovery.

"No better endorsement than an incoming cfo buying before even in post." - This!!!

I don't worry about when this could start to move up meaninfully - it could be a week, a month or a quarter, but it will. I'm neither as clever as some of our resident traders nor do I have the time to watch price movements to the minutae and trade then, but what I know is when a turnaround comes through, the returns will be multi-fold. A focused management team can do wonders with profitability, IMO. And we'll aided by a recovering UK economy too. I'm prepared to be patient, and add around these levels particularly if my other shares do well in the near term and I can switch some capital here.

That completely explains the jump on Friday, IMO - the bots were front-running this on Friday.

Good on you, Pablo. You are way better than the bloody sucking leaches that were on the CPI top-tier for many years and did nothing to either enhance shareholder value OR take some money from their pockets to buy shares on the public market. I truly believe Capita will be different under AH/XW/PA - for the first time in a long-term, we'll have true shareholder focus at the top - not just 'woke' focus!!!

"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” - Good old Buffett.

Added more sub 14p today!!

@kularatnam - thanks for pointing that out. From the 2020 AR, here are some details of RSA policy.

"Which will normally vest after three years from grant subject to: (i)

continued employment; (ii) satisfactory personal performance during

the relevant vesting periods; and (iii) a positive assessment of

performance against one or more underpins. Details of the underpins

which will apply to the proposed 2021 RSAs are set out below and in

the annual report on remuneration on page 101.

• Which, once vested, may not normally be sold until at least six years

from the grant date (other than to pay relevant taxes). "

Any awards will only vest after 3 years, as I said in my post on Friday. Even after they vest, these shares can't be sold for another 3 years after the vesting date. It's not just AH who has 'underpins' attached to their RSAs - it's everyone really as seen from the AR.

Based on the underpin below, it stands to reason that none of the RSAs/options granted in 2021 will actually vest in 2024, as the TSR on CPI's shares has been negative.

"In respect of the underpins for the 2021 awards:

– underpin 1: Capita’s TSR over the three years ending 31 December 2023

must be positive for any RSAs granted to executive directors to vest.

– underpin 2: The committee must be satisfied with the underlying

performance of Capita and that there have been no environmental,

social or governance issues resulting in material reputational damage

over the vesting period. If this underpin is not deemed to be met, the

committee will consider a reduction to the final vesting level of the

RSAs (including to nil)."

This is spot on, Bobsto. The shares outstanding increase when shares are allocated to the Employee benefits trust in advance of options vesting for that year in question. Capita is not doing a share buyback in the market for these shares to be then transferred to the benefits trust.

My best take for Friday price action is a news leak - maybe a susbtantive contract win news is incoming OR either a fund decided to take a new/additional long position/one of the shorts have started to cover.

Either way personally I don't really care about what the SP did on one day on no news - it's the medium term trajectory that's of far more relevance. To each their own though!!

Broomtree - Baseless panic, more like. ROFL...

SmallMoves - I was just now reading your comment about taking 10m shares out of the Employee benefit fund. Good lord - where are you getting all this, pardon my language, shiite from? The employee benefit scheme shares is not a piggybank that CPI can dip into anytime to issue shares to management against options (and those that haven't vested yet).

I'll leave you chaps to let your imagination run as wild as it can !!! AFter all, it's the weekend.

SmallMoves - nope. All the awards today are all options that vest in 3 years. AH has conditions attached to his vesting, but the others don't. That's the only difference. No one is issuing any shares against these options right away!!!

Chaps - first things first, these are not shares issued right now. These are RSAs (restricted share awards), the equivalent of RSUs (units) prevalent in the US markets. They vest in 3 years, i.e., they become shares in 3 years time.

And here's the brilliant kicker. the remuneration committe could scale back these awards if the underpin condition below isn't met. The key is that there is a dependency on positive shareholder return being achieved through the end of 2026. Please note that JL's awards never had any such dependencies and he was free to destroy shareholder value without any repercussions. Not so with AH.

As simpiles said, this current board is very different with a good focus on SH value, and AH isn't JL. Thank goodness.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The underpin conditions attached to Mr Hernandez’s 2024 RSA include:

Underpin 1: Capita’s total shareholder return (“TSR”) over the three years ending 31 December 2026 to be positive; andUnderpin 2: the Remuneration Committee (the “Committee”) must be satisfied with the underlying performance of Capita over the vesting period and that there have been no environmental, social or governance issues resulting in material reputational damage.

There's only one UT in a day and that's at 16:35 hours. Maybe that 4.2m trade was a trade that showed up after the market closed?

Per ADVFN, after a 2.2m UT trade, today's trading volume is 17m shares. Calls for a glass of Champers (and a Montrachet) and this momentum should carry through into Monday, IMO.

Don't care if it's a false dawn today, TBH. My investment horizon is way beyond today!!