Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Seems the palladium ship has reached a strange shore, where the waters are calm and there isn't a Tree to be seen...
How peaceful this island is. Some things on the horizon since the share was last traded :
Less than a week then before Nomad appointment
Flank Approvals at Monchetundra nearly completed
Tipil licence awaiting final approval West Kytlim and new 2 ton ambitions
Fresh Board appointments to be announced
Lowest AISC around $325/Oz (from Kommersant interview in Feb)
Ongoing discussions about the assets and possible sale
Plus
Special Situation funds waiting to pull the trigger and continue investing
Palladium holding firm above $2000 on a 30day average - structural deficit not removing
Norilsk pulling out of Arctic Joint Venture
South African mining under Covid19 lockdown and ongoing power issues with Eskom
All of these will have an impact on the share price.
Add them to the reasons you invested previously and it is a good place to be in.
If the asset disposal is considered to be at least 75% of the company value then it would trigger Aim rule 15 about ‘fundamental change of business’ and require a shareholder vote also.
Think this would be triggered if Monchetundra sold, probably not if West Kytlim sold on its own first.
Tonight, can we all spare a thought for those derampers who have been furloughed in the last few weeks by their masters.
According to the rules they are not allowed to do anything of value for their evil employers, so unfortunately for us that means they will be free to continue posting negative messages across many boards.
However they will now only be getting 8p instead of 10p, as they won’t get their pitiful allowance topped up. If anything they will probably find their wages shorted further as old habits die hard for the masters that lurk in the shadows.
It’s a lovely vague statement - ‘orderly market’. Allows a very broad spectrum of possibilities to be thrown into the mix and conspiracy theories to prosper!
WHI don’t come out of this well imo.
1. The infamous tweet was on a Sunday and trading was allowed all of Monday before the suspension on Tuesday AM
2. We now are made aware they didn’t handle the admin side of the Dmitry Loan offer in 2017/18 and only just come to light.
Two reasons why I am of the opinion they haven’t been on top of things for a while. Let’s get the new nomad appointed, get some more information from the company a out their intentions for the future and I’m sure it will be a great month ahead for long term investors such as ourselves in here.
Haters gonna hate
Shorters gonna lose
Investors gonna make plenty
Armchair fans will watch the world pass by. I hope they keep this board active after it’s sold for billions, they will have withdrawal symptoms if they can’t post...
So we know from RNS that West Kytlim is planned for scale up to 2tons a year, probably to show what it is worth to a new owner.
We know there is a ready to go plan for Monchetundra involving SinoSteel for around 4tons (approx 125Koz) a year. Alexei gave a Kommersant interview in January stating likely EBITDA of $250m from this.
What would happen to share price upon resumption if a similar scale up plan has been devised to take advantage of the 15Moz resource with flank approval granted?
No point digging out 150kz a year, you’d be there 100 years!
Would like to see them aim higher, maybe a plan for 780Koz so life of mine is around 18-20years.
Higher potential EBITDA - $1.5bn to $2bn a year means much higher company valuation.
Allow a hefty discount for building the bigger facility and you’d still be looking at $4-5bn to ensure you secured the asset that will generate $15-$20bn over less than 20 years.
(This is conservative as well - 15MOz at Pd price each year, less $325/Oz costs)
Hard not to be optimistic about the future when you work out what this vast resource will yield.
Emotions running higher, shorters returning in force.
Always appreciated seeing what Ian and Tillywhiz amongst others have had to say in the suspension period. Keeping morale up.
New posters RNSman and now PalladiumProfits, a credit to their clan. (I know they are different people too, but I only know one of them)
Seems a few longterm shareholders are joining back after the latest RNS. Another clear sign we are closer to trading again.
So we have a larger WK to consider, palladium steady above $2000, maybe a surprise or two up their sleeve at MT...
I’m sure more will be revealed in the coming days and weeks, looking forward to continuing this amazing journey.
Final point, EUA will be one of the shares of the year when considering the gains achieved. It’s got competition for sure from certain ‘covid’ stocks, but with the amazing board in place and a little more patience.
All the best
Plenty of information in the Monchetundra RNS dated 4.12.19. The Russian Cadastre has plenty of historical estimates. We don’t mention all the Nickel and Copper often but worth a fair few million as well.
It’s one of the things I like about this company so much, all the information tends to be there in the detailed RNS.
- - - - - - - -
Apologies for the copy and paste but saves typing it all and hope it helps out.
The total amount potentially controlled by Eurasia and under flanks exclusivity right application is c.15M oz of PGM as per the Russian cadastre of state resources; although this data has not yet been independently verified by Eurasia.
· Further potential resources of c. 21Moz in established and unlicensed resources and reserves in the district surrounding the town of Monchegorsk, that is located 8Km from Monchetundra (C).
(?) Within the Flanks application submitted by Eurasia 80% owned subsidiary Terskaya Mining Company in September 2019:
1. Potential Pd and PGM resources of c.13.1t (421k oz) (as per State Cadastre of Deposits, No. 18 on Murmansk Geological Information Archive Reference Note of 07.03.2019)
2. Potential resources of Pd and PG? c.14.7 t (472k oz) and of gold c. 0.7t (as per State Cadastre of Deposits, No. 20 on Murmansk Geological Information Archive Reference Note of 07.03.2019)
3. Potential resources of Pd and PG? c. 320.1 t (10.2M oz) and of gold c. 10.1t (as per State Cadastre of Deposits, No. 21 on Murmansk Geological Information Archive Reference Note of 07.03.2019)
4. NKT (Nittis Kumuzhanaya Travanyaha) nickel, copper, cobalt, platinum, palladium, gold and silver with the following potential resources: Ni - c. 298,000 t, Cu - c. 229,000 t, Co - c. 11,300 t, Pt - c. 18.5 t, Pd - c. 55.0 t, (Pt+Pd= 73.5t or 2.3M oz) Au - c. 7.6 t, Ag - c. 185t (as per State Cadastre of Deposits, No. 22 on Murmansk Geological Information Archive Reference Note of 07.03.2019).
The total in items 1 to 4 above, which excludes the c.2M oz in Eurasia's current production license is c.13M oz of PGM of which palladium is predominant. The Pd to Pt ratio in Monchetundra production license varies from 1.7 to 5.8 Pd/Pt ratio, a similar range is observed in the Flanks area.
Just ask yourselves one thing before EUA ends the suspension with a new nomad, flanks approval and potential bidders free to make their move.
The person making the post or tweet normally has something to gain.
Positivity, such as my own and many others = want share price to increase and believe in the company. We read the RNS and join the dots.
Negativity on twitter, by such as Oilboy John, longterm_losing, EyesOffThePrize, timmyLobster, WinniePooh, GaryTheFisherman to sort of name but a few, Shareprolosses website etc, they all want the company to fail and claim things are a scam. I’d love to believe they are warning people with their best intentions, but either they have a short position or paid by those who are short to be negative.
What happens next....
There is going to be a queue of significant funds waiting to buy any spare shares. Far more buying power than the retail market. Funds were already investing before the suspension, driving share price from 4-7p and the others are not going to miss out. With very few decent opportunities for rapid growth this year, this is a very special situation for those who invest in such things.
Shorts will want to close ASAP which drives up price further.
Monchetundra is worth $2bn, an expanded West Kytlim could fetch $1bn if they hit the 2tons PGM mentioned in February’s Kommersant article. A $3bn sale price - when the world needs more palladium and South Africa is in a lot of trouble. It isn’t far fetched, it is more realistic every week.
(Based on Pd averaging $2300/Oz over next 10 years)
I rarely post on here now, but with all the silliness on twitter about the non-issue nomad change just wanted to set the record a little bit straighter.
Keep safe everyone
Very volatile at the moment, no doubt the MM’s will go fishing early on and then this RNS will help. Expect Muddy to reply again and again and again, but hope overall trend is back up for NMC.
I felt it was a stronger reply in The Times, like you say they need to spread word across more media they are fighting back, RNS definitely help, along with any serious buy backs.
If MW fired all their ammo it should rise strong, otherwise a yo-yo period ahead but my money is on NMC to restore confidence before long
I'm sure no one will miss my comments on here, given they are available on other popular messaging apps, but seems a sensible time to take a breather from this particular share on LSE until we have some RNS action to discuss sensibly.
None of the fundamentals at EUA have changed, other than the 15M Oz in the ground keeps going up in value, and before long will be confirmed as 40M Oz.
The daily chatter is fine if you are looking to day trade, but SP doesn't come into an asset sale.
Buyer and Seller have to agree a price and structured deal for the asset, simple as that, and months of paperwork and negotiating to achieve.
When I say 'before long', I mean more than days and weeks, as EUA is a proper investment, not a get rich quick P&D game. Those who are invested do so quite happily, so time to think about Christmas, good luck to one and all who are actually invested.
was wondering where the £2 came from? It's nearly a year since came crashing down, BK probably readjusted ambitions slightly since the £10 days but can't see an effective firesale if he isn't under pressure to sell up.
seems the market likes the news a lot. Nice to have some positives on Yu after so long in the doldrums
Seems a positive step, reducing burden on cashflow etc. Wasn’t expecting news before January results, but happy to see comments about the strength of the management team. All upbeat
no doubt there will be a mini swarm on BBs all timed for Monday. totally shameless, totally unfounded, and totally not going to sway any sensible investors.
Hope Dmitry lining up the best birthday present for us all ;-)
Top notch polishing!!
You’ve made me think we could do with a bit of Boris here,
Get EUA done
We’ve got a deal, a great deal, and it’s oven ready. So let’s stick it in the microwave, zap the botflys and turn it up to 10, $10bn
You want it done, Dmitry wants it done, NN want it done,
So let’s get EUA done.